@volisdead

try to make sense of things that mostly don't make sense

Joined February 2022
  • Tweets167
  • Following658
  • Followers6.3K
3Media
This is an accurate description of the current state of the technology, but what causes the normies described below to purchase subscriptions? For businesses coding is effectively 100% penetrated and the white collar replacement thesis hasn’t played out yet. Who bridges the gap?
Unemployed Capital Allocator
@atelicinvestOct 17
fwiw i don't think it's over go talk to 10 different normies and ask about how they use AI today we are at like inning 2 of diffusion of this technology we are still in AOL mailing everyone a free CD days still not gonna buy any semis tho because I hate money
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Good news, collar is up pnl, bad news my portfolio is still down pnl
mediocrebuysideanalyst@volisdeadOct 7
If republicans lose midterms I think we can have a real equity drawdown. I am usually permabull but collared a lot of my equities for the first time since 2022.
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People get too fascinated by blow ups. There are blow ups every day. Some pod monkey is out of a job every week. You’re better off focusing on learning how to make money than thinking about other people. The PvP nature of markets at the largest size level doesn’t matter to you
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Feels like March a bit in index land, let’s see whether that’s correct
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The Roundhill "in memory" ETF continuing to struggle.
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Anthro + SPCX have created a lot of "wealth" that needs public markets liquidity.
zerohedge
@zerohedgeOct 15
*HARVARD ENDOWMENT JUMPS TO RECORD $68B AFTER 27% ANNUAL RETURN
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The PPT out in full force today
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My one financially responsible trait is still leaving the avoid tolls button checked in Google Maps
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Had an $EWY alert at 150 go off this morning. Gonna wait a bit for that one, probably better off buying it if it goes up a little than now.
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probably a good time to buy a couple bonds.
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Today we pray for the country of South Korea
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Buying some semis and memory, short covers after everyone called capitulation yesterday. May even go long
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Getting the itch to trade which means I really should just do nothing
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There are many people who unironically think this year hasn’t been a good year for the market so far
taobanker
@taobankerOct 10
There's an epidemic in people bragging about how easy it is to index and earn 15% a year in S & P's
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I feel like every first year TMT analyst I've ever met says to short AAPL because it meets all the criteria for an ideal funding short (where does growth come from, deeply liquid, no right tail catalyst at these levels) and I have never made a dime being short AAPL.
Felix Wang, CFA
@HedgeyeTechOct 9
Why is no one saying $AAPL is a bubble? We're Short. Our bear thesis played out in a big way last quarter - we think it will continue as Apple's supercycle bursts.  We wrote about the weak lead times for Apple's iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max last month.  We're working on two critical data sets: our global inventory checker (iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max) and our social barometer for the iPhone Duo.  We will unveil the results later this month.
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Okay let’s do the usual then. October through early November and midterms everyone sells rallies to protect their bonuses and banks derisk. November through Jan we have a ripping rally from EPS. We stall in Feb ahead of a manufactured crisis, which we recover from into Q2.
Jack Farley
@JackFarley96Oct 8
OUT NOW - since June, a quiet paradox has gripped the semiconductor industry. Earnings are booming >100%, demand signals are white-hot, and yet valuations have collapsed. @Srasgon's explanation is simple: investors clearly have worry about a cycle peak. Earnings beats are being rewarded less and less as investors expect the historically-cyclical semiconductor earnings to slow down in 2028. Stacy's question is... WHAT IF THIS IS WRONG? Perhaps it could be. Fundamentals are getting better not worse. Stacy recently met with commanding heights of semi industry (Broadcom Nvidia etc) and in many cases, demand is WELL in excess of the guidance, meaning guidance is a haircut on what can actually be built not on how much customers actually want. We talk about semicap ($AMAT $LRCX etc) where Stacy is bullish as well as dotcom comparisons. Enjoy! Apple podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas… Spotify open.spotify.com/episode/0m4… YouTube youtube.com/watch?v=-lERPDjp…
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If republicans lose midterms I think we can have a real equity drawdown. I am usually permabull but collared a lot of my equities for the first time since 2022.
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Not a political post, just a market post to be clear…. I dont vote based on 3-6m market forecasting lol
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Incredible that Mr. ghalibaf is referring to hyperscaler FCF. Maybe he’s long software
محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf@mb_ghalibafOct 6
Boo! Are you ready?
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Honestly a really small move in USDBRL. Tells you where the election trade crowding was
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