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Is Trump controlling the market? Just days ago, the chance of a US–Iran ceasefire by April 7 was around 2% Now it’s suddenly at 100% After repeatedly rejecting peace talks and saying a ceasefire wasn’t on the table And then it just happens Moves like this don’t feel random It looks like someone is setting the narrative and the market is reacting to it Feels less like politics and more like a business

Crypto sentiment is at one of the lowest points I’ve seen in years. Right now on Polymarket the probability of Bitcoin dropping to $40,000 is higher than the probability of it returning to $100,000. This didn’t happen in a single day, the market was moving in this direction for a long time. It all started with the flash crash when Binance had technical issues and liquidity suddenly disappeared. After that came constant geopolitical pressure such as wars and other global conflicts, which kept risk assets under stress and gradually pushed investors into more defensive positions. Because of this, sentiment gradually shifted from confidence and dip buying to doubt and expectations of even lower prices. And while many people talk about crypto as if it’s already dead, the underlying ecosystem doesn’t look as weak as the mood suggests. DeFi TVL is still around $90-100B. At the peak of the previous cycle it was about $160-170B. Yes, a lot of capital left, but tens of billions never exited the space. Protocols are still being used, and instead of banning crypto, more countries are trying to regulate and monitor it. What’s also interesting is that major assets like ETH and SOL haven’t really delivered a strong expansion beyond their previous highs, even though most of the crypto economy is built on Ethereum and Solana continues to generate activity through memes and new token launches. To me this looks less like the death of crypto and more like a long clean-up period after crypto performed strongly and a huge number of people entered the market driven by FOMO. Now we’re at a point where most people are sitting in stables, waiting for lower prices and ignoring altcoins completely. Almost nobody expects a strong move up anymore. But markets rarely move in the direction that the majority is waiting for. And if crypto needs anything to start growing again, it’s attention. The fastest way to bring that attention back has always been the same — price moving up just enough to make everyone feel like they’re missing out again.