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Updated my 10 year $MSTR model for financial entertainment using today's quote.
Assumptions in Base case:
-$BTC CAGR at 25%
-MSTR pinned at 1.15x mNAV
-Preferred demand flat
-Prefs yield 11%
-USD reserve 18 coverage months
10-year Base case output:
BTC: ~$832K (~9.3x | 25% CAGR)
MSTR: ~$1,876 (~10.5x | 26.5% CAGR)
Model updates:
-Added STRK converts, options outstanding, and RSU/PSU unvested to terminal basic share count
Super-Bear, Bear, Bull, and Super-Bull also included below. Critics welcome.
H/T for reviews: @ZynxBTC | @BTCoptioneer
Model URL: docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
In the spirit of @BTCoptioneer's framework, I am sharing my own 10 year $MSTR model for financial entertainment.
Assumptions in Base case:
-$BTC CAGR at 25%
-MSTR pinned at 1.15× mNAV
-Preferred demand flat
-Prefs yield 11%
10-year Base case output:
BTC: ~$853K (~9x | 25% CAGR)
MSTR: ~$2,196 (~12x | 28% CAGR)
Super-Bear, Bear, Bull, and Super-Bull also included below. Critics welcome.
URL: docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
Adam Argo retweeted
Stocks were up yesterday because businesses were worth way more yesterday and now they are down today because businesses are worth a lot less today. Don’t worry though. I’ve adjusted my DCF model to represent all this new information and I continue to listen to podcasts about peptides.