Economist @lewisandclark @LevyEcon (Macroeconomics, Money, Finance, Political Economy). (MOSTLY INACTIVE AND RARELY CHECKED, Email for Qs: [email protected])

Portland, OR
Joined April 2015
Thread The CBO is at it again with its new Primer on the Federal Debt cbo.gov/system/files/2020-03… Below is a thread but for a fully developed counter argument see this: tandfonline.com/eprint/RBIF3…
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Eric Tymoigne retweeted
Folks, @PeteButtigieg is right: we've been running a generation long natural experiment on minimum wages and the results are clear. 20 states have no MW to speak of. 30 do, and sometimes as high as European levels (60% of median wage). What do we find? Sharp growth in low pay, little effect on jobs.
A Charlotte student to @PeteButtigieg on corporate abuse of the minimum wage. How will the Democratic platform structure a wage increase to actively protect small businesses from being forced to close or cut hours?
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Yes and a broader indictment of the role of money in education. The rise of student debt has reinforced this focus on monetary gain (ROI etc) from education across all institutions. Detrimental impact on curriculum, level of preparation and motivation of students,…
A sticking indictment of university business schools and the MBA, by @Chris_Marquis_. The continuing frustration of workers in US, UK and EU economies can be traced to a post-1980s obsession with teaching management as a science. It isn't. #Showmethemoney nytimes.com/2026/10/18/opini…
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Eric Tymoigne retweeted
The idea that you can steer the economy with budget deficit rules and an interest rate is clearly dead. It is a fair weather framework that fails once the going gets rough. There is neither full employment nor price stability, and both climate and distribution are a disaster.
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Policymakers the world over will use this to shape their affordability agendas. Congratulations to my friend @IsabellaMWeber on another important book! penguinrandomhouse.com/books…
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Kindleberger is correct of course. Minsky’s analysis does not rely on irrationality and stupidity: financial instability comes, among other things, from the internal logic of capitalist enterprise.
Kindleberger to Bernanke, 1982, found by Mehrling. Shared by Tooze. Tweeted by Matt Klein. :)
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Eric Tymoigne retweeted
🧵 We just concluded our @LevyEcon Capitol Hill Series on the AI buildout. While no two crises are alike, our job was not to predict the next one but to outline the anatomy of a crisis. Hyman Minsky continues to be a guide for our analysis. 1/x
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Financial side of the AI boom is tied to private markets: Synthetic PIK, level 3 valuation, credit & liquidity “enhancement”, bypassing of leverage reg via “innovations”, embedded leverage, regulatory apathy,… are all growing. We are in for a replay of 2008 if we let this go on.
Replying to @ptcherneva
This is the first of several conversations on the topic. Next week we host a virtual talk by @tymoignee on the role of private credit in the proliferation of ponzi finance. Register to watch: levyinstitute.org/events/eve… and sign up for Levy news: levyinstitute.org/newsletter… /end
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The problem is much bigger than the empirics (although this is important). There are theoretical and methodological aspects 1- Theory: the whole framework is based on neoclassical premises that have been debunked a long time ago via Keynes, Cambridge controversy, Humbug.
Rien ne marche dans ce modèle pourtant au cœur de la macro mainstream : ❌ Courbe de Phillips (eq.1) : rejetée par les données, ❌ Équation d’Euler (eq.2) : idem. Et pourtant, on continue à l’enseigner (et à l’utiliser !) comme si de rien n’était.🤷‍♂️ Quand est-ce qu’on avance ?😉
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(big ones are finance and banks, the “dark corners” as they are called), confound household with gov, etc. Modern analysis that takes macro seriously(big umbrella from Shaik to Lavoie to Wray to Setterfield to Hein to Kelton to Keen …)starts from detailed institutional analysis
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It does not start from starting with the most parsimonious model based on shaky assumptions: prediction is not the only thing important (although rep agent macro and derivatives fail at that too) but we want explanation.
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Guy who pushes micro in macroeconomics complains that I want to teach macroeconomics only. There is zero role for representative agent in macro. Macro starts with national income accounts and interdependences among sectors. Lucas and after (RBC etc) is a massive step backward
There’s a balance of course. But I don’t think my job teaching principles was to teach my idiosyncratic tastes. In some sense I’m teaching the field that’s the job. It’d be a dereliction of duty for me to turn macro into an antitrust course because I like antitrust.
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And of course one can see how far micro has taken over in macro by just looking at most graduate programs (or even most undergrads that assume you need micro before you take macro… no you don’t). It is basically just micro applied at a different levels. Micro 1 and Micro 2.
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Eric Tymoigne retweeted
I couldn't stop thinking about all the recent deaths so I've spent the last couple of hours writing. I am about 2/3rds done, should be out in the morning. A certain small corner of the world won't want to miss this. crisesnotes.com/#/portal/sig…
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For more from a in-mainstream perspective on the topic, Romer’s “The Trouble with Macroeconomics” and also Solow, among others
50 years of macroeconomics in a nutshell: Lucas: “Your Keynesian models are full of ad hoc assumptions. We need proper microfoundations!” SMD: “Well, individual rationality doesn't guarantee nice aggregate behavior.” New Classical macroeconomists: “Aggregation is a problem? Let's just model the entire economy as ONE representative agent. Problem solved.” New Keynesians: “Cool. Now let's throw in some ad hoc assumptions to make it work.” And that's how ad hoc assumptions became microfoundations.
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Very long thread that essentially summarises the mainstream economics approach to modelling as: 1) bad shocks happen 2) our models can't cope with bad shocks 3) so we'll assume bad shocks won't affect the way the economy works No shade on José, he's as cynical about this as I am.
To elaborate a bit more, here is how I understand the Lucas critique: Suppose you are in a 1970s pre-oil shock macro department (a central bank or the french office for economic planning if you enjoy life a bit more), then you are tasked with predicting the economy. In this case
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Exactly how macro should not be taught. I am planning to drop most neoclassical framework from my macro course (loanable funds, solow growth, QTM...). instead work with Keynes, Kaldor, Kalecki, Minsky, etc. (demand led growth, liquidity preference, endogenous money, SFC intro…)
Replying to @BrianCAlbrecht
Everything is a budget constraint or supply and demand, as in Principles of Micro.
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Eric Tymoigne retweeted
Remembering Perry Mehrling | Institute for New Economic Thinking ineteconomics.org/perspectiv… This is horrible news. Perry was my office mate when we worked together at INET. Rare for academic economists, he had a superb understanding of finance and was therefore able to provide a coherent and fully cohesive ability to integrate this knowledge into standard economic models. His explanation of the 2008 crisis was incredibly astute. His analyses came with a lucidity, precision, and erudition unmatched by almost any economist I knew. I also found him to be a brilliant writer and, above all else, a lovely human being. It was a pleasure and privilege to get to know him as a friend as well as esteemed colleague. RIP Perry. You will be missed, and the economics profession has sustained a tragic loss.
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Finding The Money is finally available free online: youtube.com/watch?v=x3TJFoQW… MMT shows how a country can leverage its monetary sovereignty to pay for large scale public investments in health, education, climate action... without bankrupting itself or inflation/hyperinflation.
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Eric Tymoigne retweeted
If you know me well enough to text me, email me or DM me, I'm holding a gathering at my Chelsea Manhattan office for Perry tonight. Feel free to reach out for the details.
We are deeply saddened to share the news that Perry Mehrling passed away this morning at the age of 67. Perry was the father of the Young Scholars Initiative. He believed profoundly in young scholars, in their ideas, and in the importance of creating a community in which they could learn from one another and find their own voices. Perry, you leave an enormous hole in our midst. Our hearts are aching, and we will miss you dearly. The YSI community will carry your legacy forward. Your ideas, your generosity, and your commitment to generations of young scholars will remain with us. Thank you for everything, Perry.
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