
Head of Signal—biopharma intelligence at FT's @endpts. Former Bloomberg & still keeping tabs on future of energy+transport. Opinions are, too often, my own.
New York, NY
Joined May 2009
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*based on a US driver averaging 13k miles/year, 27 mpg, and a pass-through of 2.4 cents/gallon gasoline for every $1/bbl
The structural change to oil prices from the Iran war so far amounts to a ~$750 incentive for EV ownership over the next five years
xitter.cf/TheStalwart/status/203…
The latest BPSI shows signs of a more durable phase in the biopharma recovery, with improvements across every metric
endpoints.news/biopharma-sen…
When Tesla unveiled the Model 3 in 2016, battery prices were more than 3x what they are today. Imagine what will be possible 10 years from now.
Battery prices at $108/kWh is wild to see. That's the global average for all-in pack prices. In China, where EV and solar+battery adoption continues to rip, pack prices are down to $84/kWh. Latest figures from BNEF:
about.bnef.com/insights/clea…
Every time the quantity of batteries in the world doubles, prices fall 18%. This experience curve is one of the most consistent, and consequential, guideposts for predicting the future of energy and transportation.
A year from now, if the biopharma industry finds itself on much more solid footing, we may look back at this as the moment the gloom finally lifted.
endpoints.news/biopharma-sen…
During the two weeks that our biopharma sentiment survey was in the field in mid-October, something unusual happened: The mood of the industry appeared to snap out of its despair, all at once. Our survey caught it real time.
Experience with AI matters a great deal for how quickly people think drug development will evolve: 90% of extensive users see transformational change in five years versus just 18% of people who don't use AI today endpoints.news/artificial-in…
Three quarters of people in biopharma expect AI to transform drug R&D by 2030 — and 12% think we’ll get there even sooner, in just three years.
Already 48% are heavy users of AI in their daily work, according to our latest pulse poll.
Biopharma sentiment was more upbeat the farther the organization’s focus veered from the lab. Academics were despondent, while investors were practically ebullient about the next 12 months. @BowTiedBiotech made an A+ meme out of this table 😂 4/
Expectations for next year still tilt negative—but much better. The decoupling between current & 12-month expectations is where the action is: It suggests confidence may be returning ahead of fundamentals. Top reason for optimism: pace of innovation 3/ endpoints.news/biopharma-sen…
Just look at these assessments of current conditions in biopharma. Policy risk is the dominant force shaping sentiment in biopharma — 83% say things have gotten worse. Reasons for pessimism? The top five all trace back to questions of governance 2/ endpoints.news/biopharma-sen…













