Head of Signal—biopharma intelligence at FT's @endpts. Former Bloomberg & still keeping tabs on future of energy+transport. Opinions are, too often, my own.

New York, NY
Joined May 2009
*based on a US driver averaging 13k miles/year, 27 mpg, and a pass-through of 2.4 cents/gallon gasoline for every $1/bbl
1
5
920
The structural change to oil prices from the Iran war so far amounts to a ~$750 incentive for EV ownership over the next five years xitter.cf/TheStalwart/status/203…
Here's an updated look at the oil futures curve today vs. 1 month ago. You can see it's just a massive structural change. Even Brent for delivery in 2029 is way more expensive than it was
3
13
1
33
7,773
After four years of misery, biopharma is heating up
1
6
14
2,612
When Tesla unveiled the Model 3 in 2016, battery prices were more than 3x what they are today. Imagine what will be possible 10 years from now.
3
5
50
2,190
Battery prices at $108/kWh is wild to see. That's the global average for all-in pack prices. In China, where EV and solar+battery adoption continues to rip, pack prices are down to $84/kWh. Latest figures from BNEF: about.bnef.com/insights/clea…
1
5
2
50
3,364
Every time the quantity of batteries in the world doubles, prices fall 18%. This experience curve is one of the most consistent, and consequential, guideposts for predicting the future of energy and transportation.
26
175
15
748
37,931
A year from now, if the biopharma industry finds itself on much more solid footing, we may look back at this as the moment the gloom finally lifted. endpoints.news/biopharma-sen…
1
2
1,453
During the two weeks that our biopharma sentiment survey was in the field in mid-October, something unusual happened: The mood of the industry appeared to snap out of its despair, all at once. Our survey caught it real time.
1
1
1
2
5,674
Experience with AI matters a great deal for how quickly people think drug development will evolve: 90% of extensive users see transformational change in five years versus just 18% of people who don't use AI today endpoints.news/artificial-in…
1
4
651
Three quarters of people in biopharma expect AI to transform drug R&D by 2030 — and 12% think we’ll get there even sooner, in just three years. Already 48% are heavy users of AI in their daily work, according to our latest pulse poll.
1
9
838
Biopharma sentiment was more upbeat the farther the organization’s focus veered from the lab. Academics were despondent, while investors were practically ebullient about the next 12 months. @BowTiedBiotech made an A+ meme out of this table 😂 4/
1
1
2
284
Expectations for next year still tilt negative—but much better. The decoupling between current & 12-month expectations is where the action is: It suggests confidence may be returning ahead of fundamentals. Top reason for optimism: pace of innovation 3/ endpoints.news/biopharma-sen…
1
1
327
Just look at these assessments of current conditions in biopharma. Policy risk is the dominant force shaping sentiment in biopharma — 83% say things have gotten worse. Reasons for pessimism? The top five all trace back to questions of governance 2/ endpoints.news/biopharma-sen…
1
1
298