Very light #corn export inspections at 26.5 mbu, well below the 43-53 expected range, vs. 52.2 trom a year ago, and the 63.9 mbu week/needed.

Last week's export sales report put U.S. #soybean commitments at 51% of USDA's target vs. the 5-yr avg of 43%, with China accounting for nearly half. Another 1.88 MMT in flash sales LW puts estimated Chinese purchases near 13.15 MMT (15-16, including possible unknown-destination business). Yet expectations for stronger demand have struggled to support prices, as the market appears more focused on favorable U.S. weather accelerating a record-crop harvest. More flash sales to China are expected TW.

Light all #wheat export sales at 11.8 mbu, near the low end of the 11-22 expected range, and slightly below the 11.9 needed for the week.

#Soybean export sales were decent at 21.1 mbu, vs. the 18-44 expected range. o/s totaled 671.4 mbu, up 83% YoY. Soybean flash sales of 558 KMT to China and 236 K to unknown dest.

Fair #corn export sales at 44.2 mbu, near the top of the 20-47 expected range, but below LY's 52.2 mbu and the 53.5 mbu week/needed. o/s totaled 468.5 mbu, down 47.8% YoY.

NOPA September #soybean crush fell to a 13-month low of 196.3 mbu, down 4.5% MoM and below the 203.737 mbu trade average estimate. Crush was also down 0.8% YoY, interrupting a streak of monthly record-high crush dating back to March 2025. Harvest delays in the western Midwest (Iowa crush down 13.2% YoY) compounded maintenance downtime. Soyoil stocks fell to 1.053 billion lbs, down 12.3% MoM and below estimates, the tightest month-end supply since November 2014.

Ethanol production up 12 K at 1.065 mpd (1.065-1.095 range). Stocks up 0.199 mb to 23.942, above the trade range. Conab sees Brazil's 26/27 #corn production at a record 148 MMT.

U.S. #corn shipments are up 5% YoY at 332.5 mbu, but weak bookings suggest momentum could fade. Commitments cover just 23% of USDA’s forecast, while outstanding sales trail last year by 46%. In 2022/23, a similarly low ratio preceded final exports finishing 488 mbu below USDA’s October projection. Strong loadings offer near-term support, but the thin sales pipeline clouds the outlook. Can shipments sustain USDA’s forecast, or will exports slow as existing orders are filled?

U.S. winter #wheat planting reached 51% this week, up 15 points Wow, and 7 points behind the 5-year average pace.

U.S. #soybean G/E was unch. this week at 57%, in line with the avg. trade. 46% is harvested, vs. 43% avg. Trade sees NOPA Sept. crush at 203.7 mbu (191.0-214.3), vs. 205.5 mbu in Aug.

U.S. #corn was rated 56% G/E this week, up 2 points WoW; harvest reached 33%, 4 p.p. below the trade avg. Ukraine's MTD corn exports are running 20% behind last year's pace

Brazil #corn exports continue to struggle: the first 7 working days of October totaled 1.73 MMT, with daily shipments 16.3% behind last year's pace. Trend and lineup data point to October exports near 5.2 MMT - the lowest for the month since 2022, if confirmed. Even after USDA's 2 MMT cut to Brazil's Mar-Feb export forecast (now 38 MMT), further cuts look possible if the slow pace persists. With Brazil exports moving at a slow pace, Argentina remains the main competitor to U.S. corn exports through OND.

Light #soybean export inspections at 40.3 mbu below the 44-55 range, but above the 32 week/ needed. U.S. beans rated G/E expected at 57% (56%-58%), unch. from LW

Light #corn export inspections at 51.3 mbu, vs. the 43-55 trade range, and the below the 63.1 week/needed. U.S. corn G/E conditions expected at 54% (53%-55% range), unch. from LW

USDA's Oct WASDE left China's 26/27 #soybean BS unch., still projecting imports up 2 MMT YoY to 115 MMT and crush up 2 MMT to 111.0 MMT. That contrasts sharply with China's own CASE, which trimmed its production est. to 20.36 MMT (dn 0.59 MMT), while holding imports at 95.5 MMT (-12.5 MMT YoY) and crush at 94 MMT (-7.5 MMT YoY) -a notably more bearish view. The sizable gap keeps the market watching Chinese buying from the US & South America, along with any further reserve auctions.

Check in on the #wheat market: Very choppy trade as the market continues to monitor geopolitical developments. Active winter wehat planting is anticipated on Mon.-Tue.

A very active weekend of #soybean harvest and continued good weather forecast through Tuesday is triggering some minor selling interest to start the week.

Midday #corn market update! Modest rebound following steep declines on Friday's after U.S. unexpectedly increased its national average yield estimate.

USDA's October WASDE surprised the trade, raising U.S. #corn yield 2.7 bpa to 181.2-well above expectations for a 0.7 bpa cut-while 26/27 ending stocks of 1.894 bbu came in 200 mbu above the trade avg. Combined with a 173 mbu old-crop stocks build, supply rose a net 407 mbu. USDA offset part of that with higher feed/residual (+50 mbu to 6.0 bbu), ethanol crush (+50 to 5.650 bbu), and exports (+25 to 3.30 bbu), pushing stocks/use ratio to 11.3% from 9.7%, but still below 25/26's 12.7%.