trencheswiz

some quick thoughts on the market: i've seen many say we're going to chop for weeks/months before we can rally again or that we're going to revisit the lows and the main argument for this is that the October 10 flush was so brutal that no one has any money left to bid, especially on altcoins which is a very solid argument, because we literally had crypto's largest liquidation event on that day some sources estimate the actual liquidations on Oct 10 to be around $40 billion, and that might even be conservative to put things in context, two other scenarios that felt similarly brutal were: - the COVID crash: a black swan event that resulted in $1.2 billion in crypto liquidations - the FTX crash that resulted in $1.6 billion in liquidations a significant percentage of market participants thought crypto was done for a very long time when both of the above events happened yet the recent October 10 liquidations resulted in orders of magnitude more liquidations than both the COVID and FTX crashes combined! so of course it is logical for people to think things might be toast for a while but... what if we just slow grind up from here, make new ATHs, and then go parabolic later this quarter? i continue to maintain a bullish bias for Q4 and think odds are that things play out the opposite of what many expect i.e. it's possible we grind up to new ATHs from here on majors and start to see the usual Q4 parabolic rallies on strong memecoins and altcoins for a few reasons: - we just had the largest flush and OI wipe in the history of crypto, ever, and it's not even close. it's hard to imagine how much worse things can get from here tbh - BTC, majors, and altcoins have been putting in a good bounce since yesterday — i.e. more than many expected. the market seems to be showing its hand, and it might not be a good idea to fade it - the US markets futures opened green despite the Trump China rhetoric over the weekend - a few strong coins like $BNB and $USELESS are already back above pre-liquidation levels and were pretty close to ATHs at some point yesterday/today, BTC/ETH/SOL are bouncing quite well, and several other altcoins are putting in strong pumps. this isn't the kind of PA you would see in an environment in which we'll chop for a long time - Q4 seasonality + bullish macro still favors UP for risk assets in Q4 - Trump has consistently shown that he WANTS the market to pump. he can (and would) easily walk back his comments to get markets to pump as he has always done. in fact, signs are he has already started to do this! as such, i believe the best positioning from here isn't to stay sidelined waiting for price to 'revisit the lows' before getting back in... because we could end up in a scenario in which max pain is up only, and that could be painful best move IMO is simply to start DCA'ing into high conviction plays from here spot and chill so what if it goes down? that's more opportunity to buy more. odds are the asset will be trading much higher later this quarter anyway! avoid leverage as much as possible if you can, as we've seen how dangerous it can get over here lately if you really must use leverage, the safest move would be to keep it below 2x and on extremely oversold assets with a clear downtrend break ideally, no leverage at all is the best move IMO again, these are just my thoughts and should not be treated as gospel or financial advice stay safe!