Tornike Razmadze

In Georgia, as painful as it is to admit, the Russian strategy has prevailed. Ivanishvili has taken full control of the state—its machinery, resources, and economy. The opposition parties are fragmented, weak, resourceless, under surveillance, persecuted, and have largely lost the trust even of the protesters. What began as large protests has faded into daily crowds of 500–1,000 blocking the main avenue. Many—though not all—feel helpless and hopeless. The opposition has lost on all fronts. That’s harsh, but it’s the reality. Grow up, deal with it. The global context isn’t helping. In fact, it’s making things worse. Europe and Ukraine—on whose success Georgia’s future depends—now appear to be on the losing side, cornered by Russia, China, and unpredictable US. All of it plays directly into Ivanishvili’s hands. We are witnessing tectonic global shifts—economic, financial, and geopolitical. And Georgia will not be spared. The most pragmatic (if unpleasant) course in Georgia may be to weather the storm, endure the crushing transition, preserve what can be preserved, and try to change the regime later. The risk, of course, is that by then Georgia may be even more deeply trapped in Russia’s grip, making regime change harder, not easier. But it’s hard to argue that such change is any more likely now. They say don’t change horses midstream—this may be one of those moments. What Georgia needs is the rise of a new, non-confrontational political opposition—a credible elite that can build, mature, and position itself by 2028. Even then, the challenge will be steep. But this path will almost certainly require some cooperation with the current regime—and that’s unavoidable if they want to stay in the game they claim to want to win. And even that is a secondary priority—after the urgent need to strengthen the military, bolster defence, and increase economic self-sufficiency. Winter is coming!