@tommy_bennett

Civ pro, fed cts, con law. Also: baseball, charts, trivia.

tommybennett.com
Joined April 2009
  • Tweets12.1K
  • Following931
  • Followers2.4K
899Media
I'm happy to announce a new resource for Supreme Court watchers: supremecourt.report. Read on for more 🧵

Supreme Court Report

Every case the Supreme Court is asked to hear, what it asks, and the odds it is granted — rebuilt three times a day from the Court's own docket.

supremecourt.report
5
15
6
44
14,115
And the Supreme Court has now granted certiorari. supremecourt.report/cases/26…

Department of Justice, et al. v. Scott McNutt, et al. — No. 26-204

Supreme Court docket No. 26-204, on review from United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit. Docketed August 18, 2026. Filings, proceedings timeline and questions presented.

supremecourt.report
Tommy Bennett@tommy_bennettApr 7
It's been 8 months since the Fifth Circuit heard oral argument in McNutt v. United States, an appeal from a N.D. Tex. judgment declaring provisions of the Internal Revenue Code prohibiting home distilling to be beyond Congress's enumerated powers. Could go up to SCOTUS after.
1
1
1
17
5,538
The district court's opinion formed the basis for my final exam in constitutional law a few years ago. It's going to be sort of useless as a practice exam soon. Maybe I should choose less cert-worthy cases? Cert la vie.
1
1
247
One interesting upshot of granting cert. in McNutt rather than Ream (No. 26-93, challenging the same statute, exact same counsel of record on both sides) is that in McNutt, the gov't waived the commerce clause issue. Not so in Ream. Narrower questions now before the Court.
1
233
SG asks the Supreme Court to decide whether the APA gives federal courts power to vacate administrative rules. The model is rarely this confident in a grant. supremecourt.report/cases/26…
3
5
5
49
34,271
Today's Supreme Court order list was the first good opportunity to test my cert-probability model. This chart shows the disposition of the cases distributed for the long conference for which my model generated a prediction. Looks pretty good.
1
13
1,921
It's working
62
Here's an interesting model note on Supreme Court GVRs. I was looking at Monsanto v. Dennis, No. 26-139. Even though it was Paul Clement's filing, my model gave it just a 1% chance of being granted. How odd. When I looked under the hood, I saw why: petition shorter than 3K words
1
1
6
4,600
more replies
This morning, the Court GVR'd the petition. Moral of the story? If you want to understand the Supreme Court, watch what Paul Clement does.
2
6
520
Case page: supremecourt.report/cases/26… Petition: supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/2…

Monsanto Company v. Mike Dennis — No. 26-139

Supreme Court docket No. 26-139, on review from Court of Appeal of California, Fourth Appellate District, Division One. Docketed July 29, 2026. Filings, proceedings timeline and questions presented.

supremecourt.report
1
1
456
Typically this is a very very bad sign for the odds of certiorari. But when I read the (extremely short, 4K words) petition, it amounted to request ONLY for a GVR. I realized these kinds of petitions, which aren't uncommon, had to be treated differently.
2
2
613
(eek, 4 pages, not 4K words)
25
Fascinating SCOTUS argument coming any minute about how and whether Kisor v. Wilkie applies to the Sentencing Guidelines. Listen live at supremecourt.report/

Supreme Court Report

Every case the Supreme Court is asked to hear, what it asks, and the odds it is granted — rebuilt three times a day from the Court's own docket.

supremecourt.report
1
3
698
Case page supremecourt.report/cases/25…

Kendrick Jarrell Beaird v. United States — No. 25-5343

Supreme Court docket No. 25-5343, on review from United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit. Docketed August 13, 2025. Filings, proceedings timeline and questions presented.

supremecourt.report
169
Tommy Bennett retweeted
Roberto Tallarita@r_tallaritaOct 13
OK, I made this with Codex + Google Flow. Spent 2.5 hours and about $20 worth of subscription credits. It’s not bad, and I can see myself working at this place if AI takes over academia.
4
5
1
23
4,933
I'm very much looking forward to the oral argument tomorrow morning in Suncor at the Supreme Court. The audio recording and transcript should be synced and live on supremecourt.report before EOB. Follow the case here: supremecourt.report/cases/25…
1
1
306
supremecourt.report/argument…

Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc. v. County Commissioners of Boulder County — Oral argument, October 5,...

The argument in No. 25-170, October 5, 2026: the Court’s recording and transcript, and how the bench divided its questioning.

supremecourt.report
71
The Supreme Court's October Term starts on Monday. Want to follow along? Here's a thread on how to do that with Supreme Court Report (supremecourt.report)
1
2
259
more replies
Next, oral arguments, and Supreme Court Report's newest feature makes following them a dream. You can view stats about each Justice's questions to both sides, see how the case is leaning after argument, and even listen to the audio synced to the transcript
1
101
Finally, the latest orders and opinions will show up automatically on the home page. Despite the fact that it's summer break, the Justices have already been busy!
47
Load more