Onchain everything 🙌🏻
Joined August 2011
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We live in a world where 99% of the global population know about Facebook/Twitter, and 1-2% know what Ethereum is.
Think about that, a protocol completely reinventing finance and culture as we know it, is still not known by 99% of the population.
We’re still early. $ETH 🚀🚀
tom49.eth 🦇🔊🛡 retweeted
Reminder for when people tell you things are “going well” in crypto-
Every large crypto-focused firm either:
1) has pivoted;
2) is pivoting;
3) is dying.
tom49.eth 🦇🔊🛡 retweeted
JUST IN: Senate delays Clarity Act vote until after summer recess
17% chance it passes this year
tom49.eth 🦇🔊🛡 retweeted
Less than a 1% chance by Monday.
Would have to pass the Senate and the vote isn’t even on the schedule.
Then the house…
Can’t happen.
tom49.eth 🦇🔊🛡 retweeted
Crypto is down because equities are more interesting to trade, and the parts of crypto that are doing well are almost un-investable (tokenization, stablecoins)
Bitcoin will eventually have a rally. Perhaps soon. But it won’t be sustainable until we go back to an economy where the primary driver of returns is money printing
tom49.eth 🦇🔊🛡 retweeted
Crypto trading activity is declining:
Daily trading volume across the 44 spot crypto exchanges tracked by Kaiko fell to ~$15 billion last week, the lowest level of the year.
This marks a -70% decline from January peak levels.
By comparison, in February, there were 2 trading days when volume exceeded $100 billion.
As a result, the average daily volume trend has fallen -50% since December 2025, to $20 billion, the lowest this year.
Meanwhile, trading volume remains heavily concentrated, with the 6 largest exchanges accounting for more than 60% of total activity.
Crypto market liquidity is drying up.
tom49.eth 🦇🔊🛡 retweeted
For the first time in two years, Saylor bought zero BTC in the month of July. In fact, he sold $216mm of BTC. Price +7% on the month.
tom49.eth 🦇🔊🛡 retweeted
While I'm not an equities specialist, I do think the spell has been broken, and am viewing these violent rebounds as deadcats, with the expectation that crypto will catch shrapnel early, but also bottom earlier than equities do.
tom49.eth 🦇🔊🛡 retweeted
Capitulation is no where to be seen.
Bitcoin holders just started to realized losses on a yearly basis, -136K Bitcoin.
However, previous cycles bottomed at -1.3M and -3.7M Bitcoin of annual realized losses.
Either this is the most benign cycle in terms of realized losses or there's still a lot of room to go.
tom49.eth 🦇🔊🛡 retweeted
With yields heading higher, it coincides with the typical window of weakness for Bitcoin that usually shows up in August/September of midterm years.
Bond market likely to revolt and yields head higher with the labor market showing strength recently and the Fed potentially unwilling to raise rates tomorrow.
Bond market also revolted in late 2023 which led to a 10% correction in stocks.
SPX has had a 10-20% correction starting in Aug/Sep of the last 3 midterm years.
This would also align with Bitcoin putting in a market cycle bottom later this year, just when it always does.
tom49.eth 🦇🔊🛡 retweeted
As you can see, there's no AI->Crypto rotation.
Crypto just has no more sellers, and few buyers.
tom49.eth 🦇🔊🛡 retweeted
It’s important to always look for the silver lining-
When Clarity Act fails, crypto prices will go down so much that perhaps Ansem will finally leave this space for good.
tom49.eth 🦇🔊🛡 retweeted
🐳👻 DORMANT WHALE — 5,000+ BTC reawakening after years dormant
5907.56 BTC ($383.60M) — a WHALE-SCALE move (≥5,000 BTC) of coins untouched since first received 2017-12-14 (8.6y ago) — just moved in block 958217
Address: 138EMxwMtKuvCEUtm4qUfT2x344TSReyiT
Sender Attribution: Noah Doe #27 · Salomon Client Dusted
Recipient Attribution: Unknown
💰 Realized PnL: +$285.52M (+291% gain) - basis ~$17K avg - held 8.6y
🕐 2026-07-16 00:15 UTC
TXID: 16b1eb74bbd63c0651a0a0b49d5e148c4c1a21a5bd13589392fe00a5f9271cfc
mempool.space/tx/16b1eb74bbd…
tom49.eth 🦇🔊🛡 retweeted
The equivalent of James Wynn adding more capital to lower his liquidation price which just delayed the inevitable.
Strategy has increased its USD Reserve by $450 million. As of 7/12/2026, we hodl ₿843,775 in our BTC Reserves and $3.0 billion in our USD Reserves. $MSTR $STRC strategy.com/press/strategy-…
tom49.eth 🦇🔊🛡 retweeted
The #USgovernment is dumping again!
The U.S. Government wallet just deposited 5,939 $ETH($11.15M) into Coinbase Prime.
xitter.cf/lookonchain/status/207…
The #USgovernment wallets deposited 3,941 $BTC($244M) and 30,007 $ETH($53.09M) into #CoinbasePrime over the past 8 hours.
arkm.com/explorer/entity/usg
