After recent conversations with several leading market makers and VC partners, I’ve gathered some harsh but real takeaways to share with everyone: 1/ Altcoins are fading A year ago, I mentioned that VCs had largely stopped investing in early-stage Web3 projects—now it’s even more pronounced. The Black Swan event on October 11 dealt a devastating blow to altcoins. Retail investors trading altcoins face a terrible risk-reward ratio. Let’s be real—the alt season will not come in 2025 or 26. Exceptions? Infrastructure projects with real-world resources, such as stablecoins, RWA, and payment solutions—but these types of projects likely won’t even issue tokens. 2/ The DAT bubble is deflating There’s little genuine demand for long-tail Digital Asset Tokens (DATs). Recent deals have mostly been "in-kind" swaps—tokens for equity. From the perspective of project teams, token holders, and financial advisors, raising DATs makes sense because it helps raise funds. But for investors—whether you're a private participant before a DAT goes live or buying in later in stock market—you’re likely to end up on the losing side. 3/ Current strategy: Know where we stand, proceed with caution Trading isn’t easy right now. This isn’t like one or two years ago when you could “buy without thinking,” but it’s also not the peak of a bull market where you should “sell without thinking.” The real market top will arrive amid mindless euphoria—not in the current climate of fear. (NFA, DYOR) ▪️ Those holding cash: Some family offices have approached me, planning to allocate 5–20% to BTC. I think that’s reasonable—the BTC/gold ratio is at a relatively low level. ▪️ Those fully invested or using leverage: I’ve said it before—reduce leverage now and shift to a defensive stance. ▪️ Those partially invested: Stay patient, keep your positions steady, and wait for the right opportunities. 4/ Post-October 11 aftermath: The market needs time to heal Weekly trading volume across CEXs has dropped by 20–40%. Market makers have also taken a hit—some major players even got liquidated after increasing leverage (I won’t name names here). Large capital is generally more risk-averse, and everyone needs some time to regroup and recover. In summary: Bull markets are born in despair and mature in doubt. We are currently in the "doubt" phase. Let go of get-rich-quick fantasies, above all - make sure you stay in the game.