Tim Chavez

We’re gonna really have to start watching future model runs of what 95E is gonna do in the Eastern Pacific. What makes us even more concerning and interesting is a favorable phase up with a very well defined upper level low right off the central coast of California with 95E entering in the right front quadrant could actually lead to baroclinic dynamical deepening and transition. Should that happen? This would unleash significant rainfall and flooding for Southern California with strong winds as well. A rare tropical storm of landfall is not out of the question. But one thing crucial here is in future model runs is where the cut off low develops in relation of when 95E enters into the picture. The timing is everything here. if the upper level low is further west then 95E could slip Westward and travel up the California coast compared to a scenario where the upper level low is much closer to the coast allowing 95E to impact the desert Southwest instead.