I tweet and retweet about Geopolitics, China/US, and the global energy transition.

Cambridge, MA
Joined April 2009
recovering macroeconomist retweeted
China is not just building new power plants at breakneck pace but also grid infrastructure: ultra-high voltage lines, battery storage, pumped storage. In May, China announced it would invest $700 billion in grid infrastructure through 2030. Great report: bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-…
ENERGY ABUNDANCE: China struggles to consume all of its green power 🇨🇳⚡ About a quarter of China's solar and wind generation goes unrealized due to grid bottlenecks and other hurdles. That's 481 TWh in 2025 -- equivalent to the power output of Spain and the Philippines
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recovering macroeconomist retweeted
"Super Intelligence" is to Artifical Intelligence as "Latinx" is to Latino or Hispanic.
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recovering macroeconomist retweeted
Why are all the essential services turning into Ministries of Propaganda?
Replying to @CENTCOM
In recent months, U.S. forces have supported the shipment of over 1.25 billion barrels of crude oil from Gulf partners and through the Strait of Hormuz. In contrast, Iran has not shipped any barrels because of America's ironclad blockade on Iranian ports.
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recovering macroeconomist retweeted
Iran has a new oil minister. Considering Iran has not loaded a single barrel of crude onto a vessel since August 25th, what is the oil minister managing?
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recovering macroeconomist retweeted
China’s operating cost advantage reflects the combined benefits of scale, high-capacity utilization, industrial policy, and vertically integrated supply chains, which together place Chinese smelters among the most competitive globally, writes Ryuhei Ono. Read: bit.ly/4yuArv9
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recovering macroeconomist retweeted
What’s the evidence on rent control? I charted the findings from 112 studies: Great for rent-controlled tenants ✅ But: Pushes up rents for other people ❌ Pushes down new housing construction ❌ Pushes down building quality ❌
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recovering macroeconomist retweeted
China is investing more than ever in nominal ¥ terms, but equivalent construction labor hours have ~halved from the 2012-14 period, driven by labor unit costs ~tripling. Actual construction output (e.g. km of HSR built) has been able to keep up due to productivity gains from mechanization of the manufacturing process, with the bulk of productivity gains in the 2016-2022 period. This chart illustrates how technology-enabled productivity gains enable China to continue being productive even while its labor force starts to shrink.
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recovering macroeconomist retweeted
China installed more industrial robots in 2025 than the rest of the world combined. International Federation of Robotics: ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/n…
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recovering macroeconomist retweeted
Per @CarnegieEndow analysis, China is winning the global AI talent race. Compared to 2022, the share of Chinese-origin AI talent increased 11 percentage points to 57% in 2025, while the U.S. share fell to 13%. China’s postgrad share is 41% vs. the U.S.’ 34%.
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recovering macroeconomist retweeted
Two Reuters reports, same Beijing Swing complications story. Domestic Chinese fuel prices are still much lower than they should be, held lower by domestic price caps. That causes all kinds of unfortunate distortions and means Beijing can't further ease export restrictions without Chinese refiners effectively shipping commercial stocks abroad where they're worth of heck of a lot more. But this reality is also keeping Chinese refining runs much lower than they should be, because their realized margins are crap, when all other refiners are running flat out because global margins are the best they've ever been. Balance of evidence indicates that Beijing is supplementing this domestic fuel imbalance with [unobservable/strategic] stocks, which means this can't go on forever. Either Hormuz has to *really* open soon or Chinese pump prices are going to need to rise—status quo remains fundamentally unsustainable.
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recovering macroeconomist retweeted
Business sales are growing more quickly than unit labor costs, which is helping to flatter profit margins.
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recovering macroeconomist retweeted
The US took a big step toward greater state ownership or control of the economy—a form of socialism—in 2025. This change is occurring under unified Republican domination of the US government. #PIIECharts
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recovering macroeconomist retweeted
As their AI spending plans begin to outrun their cash flows, tech companies have become more focused on managing their balance sheets in order to keep their investment-grade credit ratings and maintain access to the deepest pools of low-cost corporate debt. Overall, Morgan Stanley analysts have tallied more than $3.1tn in off-balance-sheet commitments and credit support by seven hyperscalers and chipmakers. (FT)
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recovering macroeconomist retweeted
The Fed did not make a policy error yesterday by hiking rates. They ended a two-year policy mistake yesterday. Explained below.
1/5 I have the opposite conclusion. Fed cutting has been a two-year policy error that (hopefully) ends tomorrow with a hike (91% prob now). This chart shows that since the Fed started cutting rates on Sept. 18, 2024, the 10-year yield is UP 1.30% @AnnaEconomist @fundstrat
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South Korea plans to give all 51M residents free, unlimited access to domestic AI chatbots by December—an ambitious test of AI access, industrial policy & governance. Read CES nonresident fellow @HenryHaggard3's analysis: keia.org/analysis/why-south-… #AI #SouthKorea
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recovering macroeconomist retweeted
Huawei assumes AI may be the last technological revolution of human society: Guo Ping Huawei’s supervisory board chairman on AI, chips, large models, sanctions, smart driving, and how the company sees its next era pekingnology.com/p/huawei-as…
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recovering macroeconomist retweeted
If you think this is crazy, wait till you hear how Larry Summers fired Joe Stiglitz as the World Bank's Chief Economist cause he couldn't take his critique of financial liberalisation after the 1997 East Asian crisis. American hegemony is not a Trump invention.
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recovering macroeconomist retweeted
A clear and particularly stark pattern we see in the war with Iran is that the Iranians are inflicting tremendous STRATEGIC damage with their missiles, but that the USG denies this at first and only admits it weeks, if not months, later. This creates a PROLONGED false impression that the war is going much better than it actually is and that strategic setbacks are not taking place at all. This pattern did not start with this war. Already, the first missile exchanges between Israel and Iran in 2024 set the stage for this. The media narrative was that Tehran was utterly failing. In reality, Tehran was showcasing capabilities that the official Western narrative ensured were underestimated.
In an exclusive interview, Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao told me that Iranian forces "blew the hell out of Bahrain." While open-source analyses have long indicated that the U.S. Fifth Fleet Headquarters at Naval Support Activity Bahrain sustained extensive damage in the early days of the Iran conflict, Cao's comment represents a direct and high-level acknowledgment of the matter. This comment came up as Cao and I discussed a range of issues the Department of the Navy faces and how he's addressing them. President Donald Trump recently nominated Cao to serve as the full-time Secretary of the Navy. Cao awaits consideration before the Senate. As I asked about the USS Abraham Lincoln's recent deployment, overall fleet operational tempo, and the logistical support it takes to sustain high-intensity operations, Cao acknowledged damage to NSA Bahrain left the Lincoln's crew "no place for them to pull in." There's ongoing debate as to whether U.S. forces should reoccupy and repair their various bases across the Middle East once this Iran conflict has concluded, or whether these installations represent an outdated model for force projection in the region. I asked whether a return to NSA Bahrain would be necessary to sustain strenuous deployments like the kind the Lincoln's crew just saw. Cao said, "I have a task force that's looking at that."
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recovering macroeconomist retweeted
The irony is the harder the US pushes other countries to pick a side on AI, the more they’ll want to hedge and consider using Chinese AI chips and models where they feel like they can control the stack.
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recovering macroeconomist retweeted
There’s no inflation
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