clearly my burner. but go yanks. modern sports cards expert (especially NBA)
Joined April 2021
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Don’t sleep on Hoops hobby SKU
🟡 Stadium Club FB
🔵 Hoops NBA
🟢 A&G X
🟢 Museum Collection MLB
🔴 Flagship Bundesliga
🔵 Flagship NBA Mega
🟢 F1 Sapphire
🟢 Royalty Tennis
🟢 Midnight FB
🔴 Royalty UFC
🟢 T205 MLB
🔵 Buy/Rip or Hold
🟢 Buy/Hold or Sell
🟡 Buy/Rip
🔴 Don't Buy
⏰RELEASING THIS WEEK ⏰
2026 Topps Stadium Club Football - Pre-Order 🏈
Mon. 11/9 - 12 PM EST
Hobby Box: $169.99
16 packs per box, 8 cards per pack
1 autograph per box
2026-27 Topps NBA Hoops Basketball - Pre-Order 🏀
Tues. 11/10 - 12 PM EST
Hobby Box: $189.99
20 packs per box, 6 cards per pack
1 autograph per box
2026 Topps Allen & Ginter Baseball Ginter X ⚾️
Wed. 11/11 - 12 PM EST
Hobby Box: $219.99
18 packs per box, 8 cards per pack
1 autograph per box
2026 Topps Museum Collection Baseball 🖼️⚾️
Wed. 11/11 - 1 PM EST
Hobby Box: $419.99
1 pack per box, 8 cards per pack
1 on-card autograph, 1 autograph relic and 1 relic per box
2026-27 Topps Flagship Bundesliga ⚽️🇩🇪
Thurs. 11/12 - 11 AM EST
Jumbo Box: $99.99
8 packs per box, 25 cards per pack
3 autograph or relic cards per box
2026 Topps Chrome® Formula 1 Sapphire 💎
Thurs. 11/12 - 1 PM EST - EQL release
Sapphire Box: $1,199.99
8 packs per box, 4 cards per pack
1 autograph per box
2026 Topps Royalty Tennis 🎾
Fri. 11/13 - 11 AM EST - EQL release
Hobby Box: $599.99
1 pack per box, 10 cards per pack
6 autographs per box
2026 Topps Midnight Football 🌙🏈
Fri. 11/13 - 12 PM EST - EQL release
Hobby Box: $549.99
1 pack per box, 7 cards per pack
3 autographs per box
Instant Packs also releasing on Fanatics Collect at 4 PM EST
2026 Topps Royalty UFC 👊
Fri. 11/13 - 1 PM EST - EQL release
Hobby Box: $799.99
1 pack per box, 10 cards per pack
5 autographs per box
2026 Topps T205 Baseball - Pre-Order ⚾️
Fri. 11/13 - 2 PM EST - EQL release
Four-Box Carton: $219.99
4 boxes per carton, 4 packs per box, 10 cards per pack
1 autograph per carton
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Unbelievable to me there’s still a value gap for basketball product.
I assume it’s because Topps collectors don’t understand basketball and Panini collectors are still slowly moving into Topps.
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At the beginning I thought this account was interesting but now I’m just curious who cares about all of this? Is this actually helpful?
A Little Housekeeping-
I have 5 products to clean up:
2026 Museum Collection MLB
2026 Museum Collection UEFA
2026 Inception NFL
2026 Five Star MLB
2026 Royalty UFC
The thing about these premium(ish) or at least more limited products: when nearly every card is numbered, there aren't a whole lot of mysteries left for me to solve.
Topps already tells us the hit rates. Nearly all the print runs are stamped right on the cards. And if you're spending this kind of money on wax, you probably have a pretty good idea of what you're getting yourself into. You really don't need the Squatch squawking about lousy value investments.
I can still dig into overall production, make a few relevant comparisons to similar releases, and maybe uncover a nugget or two worth discussing. But honestly, that's about it. There's not need to do a deep dive on these when a few basic facts will do the trick. So I'll be knocking all these out with one post.
Let's do it.
2026 Museum Collection MLB
Drop date: Tomorrow, Wednesday November 11th @ 12pm CT
Box pricing: $420
Last year's launch pricing: $400
Surprisingly, from a drop price perspective, these haven't spiked in price much, having been right around that $400 price point for a few years now. However, secondary market certainly has with last year's boxes currently listed at ~$750/box at online resellers. And as expected, pre-orders of 2026 Museum are already at ~$750 as well on the same sites.
Total cards in product- 355,360
2025 Museum- 327,200
YOY +8.6%
Total Hobby boxes produced- 44,420 (5,553 cases)
Configuration: 1 pack of 8 cards
Boxes calculate to 2.2 Autos/box (1.2 Autos, 1 Relic Auto). Topps states 2, so I would expect to see an extra auto in some boxes. 1 Relic/box. The rest will be a combo of base & base parallels.
Price Metrics (at $420 drop price):
$/Card- $52.50
$/Parallel- $240.34
$/Auto- $190.26
$/Quality Hit- $135.73
Base card print run: ~1,280 ea
I believe everything else is numbered.
Takeaways:
•At drop price, I don't hate this as a rip. $420 seems fair enough for 2-ish autos and a relic, with some nice top-end name potential.
•I'd call it a safe stash. Just know that simply because online donks have it priced at $750 doesn't mean it will sell for that. If you're flipping or stashing to resell later, you will likely have to come in well lower in order to actually unload them.
•~$136 per Quality Hit is actually solid. I would rip this at $420/box over most other premium MLB products. Museum has a nice higher-end look and feel without a bonkers price. There really are some fantastic cards in the product. Atelier Auto Book Cards are awesome. But be aware there are also plenty of autos that would be a bummer to pull from any box, much less a $420 one.
• If you can't land it on drop, take the lump and move on. It's definitely not a $750/box product.
2026 Museum Collection UEFA
Drop date: September 18th.
Release day price- $400
Current market price- $650
There's also a Hat Trick SKU with 6 Autos/3 Relics per box, but they're tough to find and $2200/box seems pretty ludicrous.
Total cards in product: 249,864 (This is 30% smaller than Museum MLB.)
Total Boxes produced:
Hobby- 28,200 boxes (3,525 cases)
Hat Trick- 2,696 boxes (337 cases)
Configuration: 1 pack of 8 cards
Hit Rates in UEFA should be very similar to the MLB version, except it's not showing extra autos with any regularity. There is not as broad of a checklist, so there are higher numbered variants than you'll find in MLB.
Hit Rates: 2 Total Autos (1 Relic Auto), 1 Relic per box.
Price Metrics (at current market price of $650/Hobby):
$/card- $81.25
$/Parallel- $325.00
$/Auto- $325.00
$/Quality Hit- $291.57
Unlike Museum MLB, there are 2 Insert subsets in UEFA, Museum Roll of Honor & The Grail, an ongoing one-card insert set featuring Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
Base Card Print Run: ~865 copies ea
Takeaways:
•Tons of star power potential. Again, some fantastic looking cards. Legacy Laces Auto Relics are amazing.
•Since I wasn't able to analyze before launch, the window has closed on getting it for a reasonable price.
•~$292 per quality hit is rough for a soccer product, regardless of the density of huge names.
2026 Inception NFL
Drop date: Last Friday, November 6th.
Release day price: $380/box
Current Market: $465/box
Total cards in product: 390,600
Total boxes produced:
Hobby- 54,000 (6,750 cases)
First Day Issue- 1,800 (225 cases)
Configuration: 1 pack of 7 cards
Hit Rates:
1.5 Autos/Box (Topps states 1 Auto/Box), 2 Parallels, 1.5 Numbered Cards
There are two Inserts subsets, which are both rare and should combine to fall ~1 per case: Launch & Rookie Short Prints.
Price Metrics:
$/Card- $54.29
$/Parallel- $190.00
$/Auto- $259.84
$/# Card- $254.67
$/Rare Insert- $3,040.00
$/Quality Hit- $255.42
Print Runs:
Base cards- ~900 ea
Base Green- ~125 ea
Rookie Green- ~125 ea
Launch (25 card CL)- ~140 ea
Rookie Short Prints (25 card CL)- ~140 ea
Rookie Auto Variations (20 card CL)- ~275 ea
Rookie Auto Variations Green- ~200 ea
Rookie Autos (46 card CL)- ~300 ea
Rookie Autos Green- ~200 ea
Takeaways:
•Looks like an acid trip on cardboard. Honestly, I don't hate it.
•From a production standpoint, this is not far off of Museum MLB, showing that it is a very limited product.
•One stated auto per box with a checklist of almost entirely rookies makes for an awfully low floor. Hopefully for rippers, the odds stand true because they're showing extra Autos.
•I don't believe there's ever been a single Inception SKU that I would call a good value. Inception is priced like a premium product, with an appropriate production run. But for some reason singles values have never done much in baseball. I suspect the same will be true for football.
2026 Five Star MLB
Drop date: October 28th
Release day price: $1,200/box 🤢
Current market: $2,275/box 🤮
Total cards in product:
54,512
Total Boxes produced:
9,085 (3,028 cases)
Configuration:
6 packs of 1 card per box
Hit Rates:
5 autos, 1 parallel or base /50, 0.7 Relic Autos/box
Price Metrics (based on market price of $2,275/box):
$/Card- $379.17
$/Auto- $455.00
$/Quality Hit- $454.76
Everything should be numbered:
Takeaways:
•Despite the abysmal price tag, I suppose there was an argument to be made at drop price that, with 5 autos, it wasn't a terrible value. At $1200, it's $240/Auto and ~$240/Quality Hit. Not for me, but ok. I'm hip. But at $2k+, that ship has sailed.
•Cool cards & big names, but singles value is not commensurate with box pricing. This is the perfect "Buy Singles" product.
2026 Topps Royalty UFC
Drop date: Friday, November 13 at 12pm CT via EQL
Release day price- $800
Last year's release price- $500
This is excessive.
Total Cards in product:
107,000
Boxes produced:
10,700 (2,675 cases)
This represents a 36% increase over Royalty WWE. This is also excessive.
Configuration:
1 pack of 10 cards
Hit Rates:
5 Autos, 3 Relics, 1 Base /99 & 1 Base Parallel
Price Metrics:
$/Card- $80.00
$/Auto- $160.00
$/Quality Hit- $88.89 (Every single card in the product aside from base /99 qualifies as a Quality Hit.)
Everything should be numbered.
Takeaways:
•Royalty UFC contains one of the coolest inserts in all of sports cards, Liquid Silver, and its 1/1 parallel Liquid Gold. They are, however, incredibly rare, falling at a combined rate of 1 per ~102 boxes. There are only 105 copies (100 Silver, 5 Gold) throughout the entire product.
• This would be an exciting rip, but $800 for a UFC product makes that rough. ~$89 per Quality Hit is actually pretty solid. But keep in mind the UFC singles market is soft, so that figure needs to be enticing to rip. I would not discourage anyone from ripping this at $800. I would love to myself. But it's a little out of my comfort zone. If I land any, I'll likely stash for future ROI.
• I love Royalty as a premium product. It gives off strong National Treasures vibes. But I have some beefs:
1) Apparently, the packaging needs some work. When the big scandal happened over the WWE Royalty/Cena Wrestlemania Patch fiasco, many were saying it's pretty easy to crack and reseal the boxes. I haven't had one in hand, so I'm going off other's testimonies. But in a premium product like Royalty, that's a problem. This is one I would heavily avoid buying from ebay.
2) Royalty WWE was $750/box at launch. It also contained one more Auto and one less Relic than it's UFC counterpart. UFC should not be priced higher than WWE. Similar, yes. Higher, no. Especially for less substance.
It won't matter for long because the nature of the product will certainly have it spiking shortly after drop, but keep in mind it was only $500 last year. Topps is letting its greed show a bit with this one.
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics
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GlibGlob retweeted
I just wanna illustrate how bad 2026 Five Star Baseball really is after this price increase this year. Lets say you open a box, and you dominate. If I opened this box I'd be thrilled. Boxes are 1,200 dollars with 5 autos. Your autos were:
Dustin Pedroia Ruby /5
Matt Olson /99
Bobby Witt Jr. /25
Kevin McGonigle /99
Jac Caglianone /50
Total Spend: 1,200
Value back based on comps: 917
Also, this is an unrealistic box, because its missing autos from the extremely low end players in the set. This set always had bad resale value, but this is wild lol
Interesting decision.
The most breaker focused product has a chase that rewards velocity of product ripped 🤔
INTRODUCING: The 1-of-1 Black Hole Autograph chase in Cosmic Chrome Baseball!
The first person to collect TEN of a player's Super Nova inserts in 2026 Cosmic Chrome will receive a 1-of-1 Black Hole Autograph of that player.
This program will be available for 25 different players, each with their own ultra-rare Black Hole autograph card available to claim.
Learn more here: ripped.topps.com/blackhole-m…
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Welcome Flagship NBA! Buy as much as you can. Cosmic is a bad rip great flip
🔵 Buy/Rip or Hold
🟢 Buy/Hold or Sell
🟡 Buy/Rip
🟡 Merlin UCC
🟢 Chrome Update
🟡 Bowman U Sig FB
🟢 True Bundesliga
🟢 SC Chrome UCL
🟢 Cosmic Chrome
🟢 Mint Disney
🔵 Flagship NBA
🟢 Inception FB
⏰RELEASING THIS WEEK ⏰
2025-26 Topps Merlin UCC - Pre-Order ⚽️
Mon. 11/2 - 11 AM EST
Hobby Box: $219.99
18 packs per box, 4 cards per pack
1 autograph per box
2026 Topps Chrome Update Series Baseball - Pre-Order ⚾️
Mon. 11/2 - 12 PM EST
Hobby Box: $239.99
20 packs per box, 4 cards per pack
1 autograph per box
2026 Bowman U Signature Football - Pre-Order 🏈
Mon. 11/2 - 1 PM EST
Hobby Box: $379.99
6 packs per box, 5 cards per pack
6 autographs per box
2025-26 Topps True Football - Bundesliga - Pre-Order ⚽️
Tues. 11/3 - 11 AM EST - EQL release
Hobby Box: $369.99
7 cards per box
5 autographs and 2 autograph relic or relic cards per box
2025-26 Stadium Club Chrome UCL ⚽️
Wed. 11/4 - 11 AM EST
Hobby Box: $249.99
20 packs per box, 6 cards per pack
1 autograph per box
2026 Topps Cosmic Chrome Baseball ⚾️
Wed. 11/4 - 12 PM EST
Hobby Box: $499.99
20 packs per box, 4 cards per pack
Look for autographs
2026 Topps Mint Disney 🏰
Wed. 11/4 - 2 PM EST
Hobby Box: $379.99
1 pack per box, 10 cards per pack
1 encased card per box
2026/27 Topps Flagship Basketball 🏀
Thurs. 11/5 - 12 PM EST
Hobby Box: $179.99
20 packs per box, 12 cards per pack
1 autograph or relic card per box
2026 Topps Inception Football 🏈
Fri. 11/6 - 12 PM EST - EQL release
Hobby Box: $379.99
1 pack per box, 7 cards per pack
1 autograph per box
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The sports card market has the most opportunity for profit right now. And it’s absolutely the easiest to identify.
1. Subset is more important than player
2. Product is more important than player
Now combine subset and product with the right player and you have a winner.
It’s difficult for many folks to find profit in the sports card market because almost everyone is following the same strategies that they got from the same influencers.
The market is too informed at this point.
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The biggest gamble on the baseball FDI Dutch auction was if that SKU has a disproportionate amount of debut patches. Something to watch for
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Reminder that retail product is meant to sit on shelves.
That is the goal.
Each iteration of retail SKU is aiming for that specifically.
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GlibGlob retweeted
Speaking of 2026 Topps Five Star Baseball, Im seeing a lot of breakers post team breaks on 3 box rips. Lets say their cost is 1,200 per box or 3,600 total. Add up all the teams and they make about 6,000-7,000. They profit 2,400-3,400 on a break that lasts about 20 mins. Only 15 autos in 3 boxes, so almost every person entering won't hit a single card. There is no chance I would sleep at night if this was my business model. You literally have better odds of hitting at the casino.
Im sick of people telling me that breakers aren't the reason for these sky high prices. If they all disappeared tomorrow, these boxes would sit unsold until the end of time. They would be forced to sell more to the public and make it more affordable if they wanted to move their inventory.
GlibGlob retweeted
Is this serious? 2026 Five Star Baseball is now 1,200 per BOX?? BuT ThEy AdDeD MoRe HiTs ThIs YeAr *insert SpongeBob meme*
Your autos will likely be CJ Kayfus, Bret Saberhagen, Adolis Garcia, Eric Yang and one semi decent rookie. I just saved you 1,200 bucks. You're welcome. We have yet another product we won't feature this year on the channel because, well......greed. What could go wrong at 240 per auto?
Here's the good news. You get one base card per box numbered to 50 or less 😂
Solid Topps releases this week, here’s what I’d do:
🔵 Buy/Rip or Hold
🟢 Buy/Hold or Sell
🟡 Buy/Rip
🟢 Finest F1
🔵 Stadium Club NBA
🟢 Chrome Tennis Sapphire
🟢 Five Star Baseball
🟡 Collector Kit Wave 2
🟢 Star Wars Sapphire
🟢 Bowman FB Sapphire
🟡 Bowman U Best
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Seeing a lot of people with recommendations/ideas. Three rules to follow when reading Hobby twitter.
1. Drop rates and numbering do not directly indicate that something is valuable
2. Never ever expect a ROI on anything you rip
3. Retail SKUs exist only for scalability
⏰ RELEASING THIS WEEK ⏰
2026 Topps Pro Debut Baseball - Pre-Order ⚾️
Mon. 10/19 - 12 PM EST
Hobby Box: $139.99
6 packs per box, 24 cards per pack
4 autographs per box
2026 Topps Chrome Football - Pre-Order 🏈
Mon. 10/19 - 1 PM EST - EQL release
Hobby Box: $439.99
20 packs per box, 4 cards per pack
1 autograph per box
2026 Topps Holiday Baseball ⚾️🎄
Wed. 10/21 - 12 PM EST
Mega Box: $29.99
10 packs per box, 10 cards per pack
1 autograph, relic or Chrome base card per box
2026 Topps Heritage Football 🏈
Wed. 10/21 - 1 PM EST
Hobby Box: $139.99
20 packs per box, 8 cards per pack
1 autograph or relic card per box
2026 Topps Disney Vault 🏰
Wed. 10/21 - 2 PM EST - EQL release
Hobby Box: $1,199.99
2 packs per box, 1 card per pack
1 autograph or autograph-relic per box
2026 Garbage Pail Kids Halloween 🎃👻
Thurs. 10/22 - 12 PM EST - EQL release
Hobby Box: $74.99
3 packs per box, 8 cards per pack
Look for sketch cards, artist autographs and more
2026 Topps Holiday Football 🏈
Fri. 10/23 - 12 PM EST
Mega Box: $29.99
10 packs per box, 10 cards per pack
Look for base holiday variation short prints
2026 Topps Stadium Club WWE 🤼🏟️
Fri. 10/23 - 1 PM EST
Hobby Box: $139.99
16 packs per box, 8 cards per pack
2 autographs per box
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