Peatmoss retweeted
The 10-yr yield is low compared to the worst inflationary surge in US history between 1970-85. However, compared to yield levels since 1871, today's yields is higher than 76% of the time -- i.e., they are simply "too high" to sustain! See full report @ PaulsenPerspectives.Substack…
Peatmoss retweeted
KEN GRIFFIN: GPUS HAVE AN AIRLINE PROBLEM.
Ken Griffin recently drew a comparison that explains why GPU economics could turn quickly, and it rests on what happens to any business with very low marginal costs once capacity exceeds demand.
According to Griffin, GPUs are like airlines. The marginal cost of running them is very low. The incremental seat on a flight that is not full is worth selling at twenty dollars, because that twenty dollars is profit on a seat that would otherwise fly empty.
That economics is exactly why the airline industry is such a difficult business. According to Griffin, the moment you have overcapacity, pricing goes into free fall. Every operator is rationally willing to sell below the price that would sustain the industry, because something beats nothing on a cost base that is already sunk.
The precedent he points to is the telecom buildout around 2000. Enormous amounts of fiber were laid. It was never meant to sit unused, but once more fiber existed than there was demand for, it was never lit. According to Griffin, the price of telecommunications went straight down.
The parallel is uncomfortable for the AI infrastructure trade. The question is not whether the capacity gets used eventually. Fiber did. The question is what happens to pricing in the period between overbuilding and demand catching up, and who is carrying the debt during it.
Peatmoss retweeted
Inflation breadth still looks pretty muted. Trimmed mean PCE is annualizing around 2%, while just under half of the CPI basket is rising at more than 2% annualized.
Inflation remains an energy shock story, but the ability of companies to pass this onto a tapped-out consumer with real income headwinds seems limited. Sure the upper-K with AI or equity exposure is still doing ok, but inflation is about the median consumer.
Peatmoss retweeted
Canada 68K job loss.
Trimmed CPI 1.9%
Housing market frozen.
Companies leaving for the US
Economic elites demand rate hikes.
Insanity.
Peatmoss retweeted
For the record: Canada is not the United States, and the Bank of Canada should not hike just because the Fed did.
Look at Canada’s own data. CPI-trim is 1.9% year over year. Only 46,000 full-time jobs have been created this year. Companies are leaving. Housing has stalled. Little exposure to AI buildout or reshoring.
That is not a hot economy. Copying a Fed hike would punish Canadian households for an American problem.
The BoC’s job is to set policy for Canada, not Washington.
Peatmoss retweeted
🔥 A+ response from Liberal Energy Minister Hodgson on how the federal government justifies expanding Canadian oil & gas production; Alberta Energy Minister Brian Jean beaming in the background.
"In the world we need to live in - not in a magical world - in the world as it is not as we wish it to be, this is the most productive way to be a clean and conventional energy superpower and it makes complete sense to do that."
Peatmoss retweeted
Actually, the average 13-year old isn't this juvenile, belligerent, simple-minded and narcissistic.
Peatmoss retweeted
Don't get your panties in a bunch about trade with Canada, Trumpy. The USA has a large surplus in services with Canada, so the total balance on goods and services is de minimis, and has averaged only -0.14% of GDP over the last 25 years.
If you are concerned with DEFICITS, why not focus on the one you are charged with responsibility for----the 6% of GDP Federal budget deficits which have generated the $40 trillion public debt. Especially because 30% of that was incurred during your time in the Oval Office to date, which amounts to 2% of the history of the American Republic.
Peatmoss retweeted
americans have zero interest in picking a fight with canada, for generations the closest friend and ally the united states could hope to have.
Peatmoss retweeted
“we’ve recognized from the start that america has changed. we recognize that sometimes its signature is written in pencil.” - canada pm mark carney
Peatmoss retweeted
i’ve never seen canadians—politically left, right and center—so angry with the united states as right now
many americans don’t care or know why it matters. but long term the united states benefits greatly from deep and trusted international relationships. and none have been closer (and closely integrated) than us-canada
Peatmoss retweeted
US president, Ronald Reagan, and Canadian Prime Minister, Brian Mulroney, in 1988. Later that year, Reagan said: “Our peaceful trading partners are not our enemies; they are our allies. We should beware of the demagogs who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag."
Peatmoss retweeted
Since 1965, there have been 6 fiscal years when federal spending fell relative to the preceding year:
🔵1965 - LBJ
🔵2010 - Obama
🔵2012 - Obama
🔵2013 - Obama
🔵2022 - Biden
🔵2023 - Biden
No Republican president in the last 60 years has cut spending vs. prior year.
Peatmoss retweeted
In defending Scott Bessent’s foray into the long end of the Treasury curve (Mr. Intervention), Donald Trump had the temerity to publicly lament that interest rates are “artificially high” and “ridiculous.” But what is not “artificial,” and is truly “ridiculous,” is that during his time in office, the national debt has ballooned by nearly $12 trillion. In other words, 30% of all the federal debt the United States has incurred in its 250-year history has come under his watch. Can’t blame Joe Biden for this one.
Peatmoss retweeted
Canadian voters once treated political integrity as non-negotiable. Breaches of public trust often carried political consequences.
The Pacific Scandal brought down Macdonald's government in 1873. The Customs Scandal contributed to the political crisis of 1926. Governmental disarray influenced Diefenbaker's defeat in 1963. And the Sponsorship Scandal helped end more than a decade of Liberal government in 2006.
Different events and circumstances, but a common principle: governments ultimately answer to voters.
Something seems to have changed. Anger increasingly gave way to cynicism; cynicism to resignation; and resignation to a sense that nothing we do really matters.
That complacency is easily exploited. Our predecessors expected better and eventually voted accordingly.
It's time we did the same.
Peatmoss retweeted
To my fellow Americans: Please listen.
Despite the attacks, distractions, and false narratives, Canada 🇨🇦 remains one of America’s closest and most faithful friends.
Canadians have stood with us in our darkest hours—from helping Americans escape during the Iran hostage crisis, to responding to natural disasters, to opening their homes and airports to us after 9/11.
Canada is not only our neighbor. It is one of our most important trading partners, our ally, and our friend.
If Americans could choose any country in the world to share our longest border with, we would choose Canada every time.
That is the truth—and it is time we stood up for our friends.