Post high conviction stock stories. Not financial advice. Do your own research.

Joined May 2013
Replying to @StockSavvyShay
Here's the $CRWV story
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E16 - Let's decode $WDC Q1 earnings Every AI model needs somewhere to keep its data. Western Digital sells the space. Business is booming. The share price didn't get the memo. ๐——๐—ถ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐˜† ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐˜? โ€ข Yes, on both sales and earnings, for the sixth quarter in a row โ€ข Next quarter's outlook landed well above what analysts expected ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น โ€ข Sales grew more than 50% from a year ago โ€ข It keeps a much bigger share of each sale than it did a year ago โ€ข Strong cash flow paid for big buybacks and a higher dividend ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ป'๐˜ โ€ข Cash on hand dipped after the heavy buybacks โ€ข The company leans on a handful of huge cloud customers ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—ด ๐˜๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜ โ€ข The business keeps getting stronger, but the stock is down more than half from its high โ€ข It had already dropped about 22% in the month before the report ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—ฒ๐˜…๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐˜€ โ€ข Another jump in sales next quarter, up 66% to 72% from a year ago โ€ข Margins rising again ๐—›๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ ๐—ถ๐˜ โ€ข Fell about 6% during the day, then bounced briefly and fell roughly 7% more after hours ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ต ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜…๐˜ ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ โ€“ Whether hard drive prices stay strong โ€“ Cloud companies' spending plans for 2027 โ€“ Whether margins really reach the 60% range โ€“ The next-generation 44TB HAMR drive rollout ๐—™๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ๐˜€: ๐Ÿ”น Revenue: $4.38B (Est. ~$4.14B) ๐ŸŸข +55% YoY, +17% QoQ ๐Ÿ”น Adj. EPS: $4.64 (Est. ~$4.08) ๐ŸŸข +161% YoY ๐Ÿ”น GAAP EPS: $4.63, +51% YoY ๐Ÿ”น Gross margin: 58.1% adj. (vs 43.9%) | 57.8% GAAP ๐Ÿ”น Operating income: $2.15B adj. (49.1% margin) | $2.05B GAAP, +158% ๐Ÿ”น Net income: $1.78B, +51% ๐Ÿ”น Operating cash flow: $1.60B | Capex: $227M | FCF: $1.38B ๐Ÿ”น Buybacks: $1.00B | Dividends paid: $56M ๐Ÿ”น Cash: $1.31B (from $1.58B) ๐Ÿ”ธ Q2 FY27 guide: revenue $5.0โ€“5.2B (Est. ~$4.57B) ๐ŸŸข ๐Ÿ”ธ Q2 FY27 guide: adj. EPS $5.60โ€“6.00 (Est. ~$4.82) ๐ŸŸข ๐Ÿ”ธ Q2 FY27 guide: adj. gross margin 60โ€“61% | opex $400โ€“410M | tax ~17% | ~380M shares ๐Ÿ”ธ Quarterly dividend raised 17% to $0.175 (record Dec 4, paid Dec 17) ๐Ÿ”ธ Peers: Seagate ( $STX), Micron ( $MU), Pure Storage ( $PSTG) ๐˜•๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฆ. ๐˜‹๐˜ฐ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ.
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Market wrap (Oct 22): Tech led a sharp sell-off as worries about the payoff from AI spending came back after a heavy night of earnings. The Nasdaq fell 2.6%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.2% and the Dow finished flat. Bitcoin slid about 4% and oil climbed. AI names took the hit: Meta Platforms ( $META) sank 7%, while Nvidia ( $NVDA) and Amazon ( $AMZN) were down more than 4% during the session. Meta Platforms ( $META) closed down 7% even after beating on sales and profit, as it raised its full-year capital spending outlook to $135 billion-$145 billion and free cash flow turned negative. It also announced a 2-for-1 stock split. Tesla ( $TSLA) fell 3% after cutting its 2026 spending plan to about $20 billion from more than $25 billion, while flagging higher spending in 2027 and 2028. Moderna ( $MRNA) plunged about 25% after late-stage results for its melanoma cancer vaccine with Merck ( $MRK) appeared to leak online ahead of a weekend conference. The data looked positive, but investors questioned whether it justified the stock's big run this year. SpaceX ( $SPCX) fell 9%, giving back more than half of Wednesday's post-earnings jump. CoreWeave ( $CRWV) sank about 10% on renewed worries about its borrowing costs and debt-heavy balance sheet. Lam Research ( $LRCX) slid about 9% during the session despite record quarterly revenue of $8.22 billion, as investors took profits in chip equipment stocks. Blackstone ( $BX) jumped 8% after executives struck an upbeat tone on deal exits and fee growth. Assets under management rose 10% to a record $1.37 trillion. Spotify ( $SPOT) rose more than 9% as operating income beat estimates and margins improved. After the bell: Western Digital ( $WDC) rises about 2% after hours after a strong beat. Quarterly revenue jumped 55% to $4.38 billion and adjusted EPS of $4.64 topped estimates. It guided next quarter to about $5.1 billion in revenue, well above the roughly $4.6 billion Wall Street expected. Bloom Energy ( $BE) also reports tonight. Not financial advice. Do your own research.
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E15 - Let's decode $BE Q3 earnings AI's biggest bottleneck isn't chips anymore. It's electricity. Bloom just posted its best quarter ever. Traders sold it anyway. ๐——๐—ถ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐˜† ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐˜? โ€ข Yes, comfortably, on sales and adjusted earnings โ€ข Then they raised their full-year targets above what analysts expected ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น โ€ข Fuel-cell system sales nearly tripled as data centers race to secure power โ€ข Margins widened, so growth is turning into real profit โ€ข Last year's small loss became a big profit โ€ข Installation and service revenue grew too ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ป'๐˜ โ€ข Day-to-day operations used cash instead of bringing it in โ€ข Inventory built up fast ahead of future deliveries ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—ด ๐˜๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜ โ€ข A record profit, but less cash in the bank from operations โ€ข Most of the gap is parts and finished systems sitting in inventory, waiting to ship ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—ฒ๐˜…๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐˜€ โ€ข Third raise of the 2026 outlook this year โ€ข The CFO credited year-to-date performance and customer demand ๐—›๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ ๐—ถ๐˜ โ€ข Fell almost 9% during the day, giving back the previous day's jump, then slipped further after hours ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ต ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜…๐˜ ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ โ€“ Whether cash flow turns positive as inventory ships โ€“ Demand beyond AI data centers โ€“ First targets for 2027 โ€“ Whether the big swings in AI power stocks continue ๐—™๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ๐˜€: ๐Ÿ”น Revenue: $1.24B (Est. ~$1.05B) ๐ŸŸข +138% YoY ๐Ÿ”น Adj. EPS: $0.94 (Est. ~$0.68) ๐ŸŸข vs $0.15 LY ๐Ÿ”น GAAP EPS: $0.78 vs โˆ’$0.10 LY ๐Ÿ”น Product: $1.07B, +179% | Installation: $85M, +29% | Service: $68M, +15% | Electricity: $10M, โˆ’6% ๐Ÿ”น Gross margin: 33.8% GAAP (+453 bps) | 34.5% adj. (+412 bps) ๐Ÿ”น Operating income: $225M GAAP (vs $8M) | $286M adj. (Est. ~$214M) ๐ŸŸข ๐Ÿ”น Net income: $250M vs โˆ’$23M LY ๐Ÿ”น Operating cash flow: โˆ’$27M (vs +$20M LY) ๐Ÿ”น Inventory: $928M (from $643M in Dec) ๐Ÿ”น Cash: $2.49B ๐Ÿ”ธ FY26 revenue guide: $4.4โ€“4.6B (was $3.9โ€“4.2B; Est. ~$4.1B) ๐ŸŸข ๐Ÿ”ธ FY26 adj. EPS guide: $3.10โ€“3.40 (was $2.55โ€“2.85; Est. ~$2.72) ๐ŸŸข ๐Ÿ”ธ FY26 adj. gross margin ~34% | adj. operating income $960Mโ€“$1.03B ๐Ÿ”ธ Joined the S&P 500 in the September rebalance ๐Ÿ”ธ Peers: FuelCell Energy ( $FCEL), Plug Power ( $PLUG), GE Vernova ( $GEV) ๐˜•๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฆ. ๐˜‹๐˜ฐ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ.
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Premarket movers (Oct 22): Futures are lower across the board: Nasdaq 100 -1.6%, S&P 500 -0.9%, Dow -0.5%, as doubts about the payoff from AI spending return after a heavy night of tech earnings. Oil is up about 1.6% and bitcoin is down 2.6%. Tesla ( $TSLA) drops 5% after cutting its 2026 capital spending plan to about $20 billion from more than $25 billion. Adjusted EPS of 48 cents beat estimates, but net income fell 29% and automotive revenue slipped 3%. Meta Platforms ( $META) slips about 1% even after beating on sales and profit, as it raised its full-year capital spending outlook to $135 billion-$145 billion and free cash flow turned negative in the quarter. Lam Research ( $LRCX) falls 7%-9% despite record revenue of $8.22 billion, up 54% from a year ago, as investors take profits after a sharp run in chip equipment stocks. International Business Machines ( $IBM) falls 5% after third-quarter results. Revenue rose 5% to $17.1 billion, but gross margin missed estimates and CEO Arvind Krishna said some customers are questioning whether AI investments are paying off. Lockheed Martin ( $LMT) rises more than 3% after beating estimates and raising its full-year sales, profit and cash flow outlook for the second straight quarter. Its backlog hit a record $292 billion. Allegion ( $ALLE) gains 5% after adjusted EPS of $2.60 beat the $2.50 estimate and the lock maker raised its full-year guidance. Spotify ( $SPOT) rises 5% as operating income beat estimates and its fourth-quarter profit forecast came in above expectations, even though revenue was slightly light. Procter & Gamble ( $PG) gains 2% after sales of $23.28 billion and core EPS of $2.00 beat estimates. The Tide-maker now expects higher commodity and transport costs to take about $1.4 billion out of this year's profit, up from $1 billion, but kept its outlook. Rollins ( $ROL) falls 7% after the pest-control company reported worse-than-expected quarterly sales. Kaiser Aluminum ( $KALU) falls 6% after third-quarter adjusted EPS came in below estimates. QuantumScape ( $QS) jumps 9% after a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss and plans for a new solid-state battery production line. Not financial advice. Do your own research.
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X110 - $HIMS: Hims & Hers Health Millions of people now get their prescriptions through an app. The company behind it just expanded into four new countries. Wall Street still can't agree what it's worth. ๐—›๐—ถ๐—บ๐˜€ & ๐—›๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ฎ ๐—ป๐˜‚๐˜๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น: โ€ข Online doctor visits plus subscription treatments for hair, skin, sexual health, weight loss and more โ€ข Q2 2026 revenue was $753M, up 38% YoY, with 2.9M subscribers โ€ข Revenue per subscriber rose to $92 a month, up 21% โ€ข Closed the Eucalyptus deal in June, adding Australia, the UK, Germany and Japan โ€ข Gross margin fell to 64% from 76% โ€ข Now sells branded GLP-1s after scaling back compounded weight-loss drugs โ€ข Launched injectable and oral testosterone therapy on Oct 21 โ€ข Raised 2026 revenue guidance to $3.1B-$3.3B โ€ข ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐˜: ๐˜ž๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ฌ. A strong brand, but rivals and drugmakers can offer the same treatments โ€ข ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€: Ro, Eli Lilly ( $LLY), Novo Nordisk ( $NVO), WeightWatchers ( $WW) โ€ข ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ถ๐—น๐—น ๐˜„๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ต ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด: โ€“ FTC lawsuit over billing, cancellations and health-data sharing (allegations, not rulings) โ€“ $1.37B in convertible notes on the balance sheet โ€“ Drugmakers selling GLP-1s directly to patients โ€“ Consumer spending on out-of-pocket health care Current Financial Quality Score: 10/100 Estimated fair value: $12.72 Which stock should I break down next? Drop the ticker below. ๐˜•๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฆ. ๐˜‹๐˜ฐ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ.
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N6 - Wednesday's biggest stock moves (Oct 21) Two boards. Two special committees. And the man at the center of it says he can't be in the room. Meanwhile, AI hardware got its swagger back and Netflix had a slowdown to explain. Here's everything that moved Wednesday: ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜†'๐˜€ ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ด๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฐ๐—ธ ๐—บ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€ (๐—ข๐—ฐ๐˜ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿญ): โ€ข SpaceX ( $SPCX) +7.8%: Q3 revenue of $14.58B beat estimates on both sales and profit. On the call, Musk said a merger with Tesla ( $TSLA) would be a good idea but isn't a certainty. Both boards have formed special committees of independent directors to study it, and Musk says he can't take part because he's conflicted. โ€ข AT&T ( $T) โˆ’6.5%: Q3 earnings topped estimates, but it added fewer postpaid phone customers than Wall Street expected. Verizon ( $VZ) โˆ’2.2% and T-Mobile ( $TMUS) โˆ’2.5% fell with it. โ€ข Netflix ( $NFLX) โˆ’5.3%: Its slowest sales growth in three years, plus a forecast for a fourth straight quarter of slowing growth. โ€ข Capital One ( $COF) +4.1%: Strong Q3 with $3.5B in net income and adjusted EPS of $6.69. Its net interest margin widened to 8.41%. โ€ข Super Micro Computer ( $SMCI) +9%: Preliminary quarterly sales of $18.5Bโ€“$19.5B, far above its own $14.5Bโ€“$15.5B forecast. Gross margin is also coming in higher at 12%โ€“12.5%. Full results Nov 3. โ€ข AMD ( $AMD) +3.2%: No company news. Chip stocks bounced on the strong AI demand signals from Super Micro and SpaceX. โ€ข Illumina ( $ILMN) +6.4%: Launched its new ๐˜‰๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜๐˜ฏ๐˜ด๐˜ช๐˜จ๐˜ฉ๐˜ต genetic data platform, a week before its Q3 report. โ€ข United Airlines ( $UAL) +6.3%: No company news. Airline stocks rallied. โ€ข ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ถ๐—น๐—น ๐˜„๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ต ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด: โ€“ Tesla must hold its annual meeting by Dec 6, which Barclays sees as a likely venue for a merger vote โ€“ Super Micro's full results on Nov 3 โ€“ Telecom customer growth as SpaceX pushes into mobile โ€“ S&P 500 +0.6%, Nasdaq +1.1%, Dow +0.7% ๐˜•๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฆ. ๐˜‹๐˜ฐ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ.
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Whenever you think about $NFLX - think this: User from Japan/Africa/India etc travel to other countries, want to catch up on a movie/series/show from their local language Where do they check? Thinking...
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X109 - $MU: Micron Technology Memory chips used to be the most boring corner of tech. Now they're the bottleneck of the AI boom. And one company is printing cash from it. ๐— ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ฎ ๐—ป๐˜‚๐˜๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น: โ€ข Makes ๐˜‹๐˜™๐˜ˆ๐˜”, ๐˜๐˜‰๐˜” and ๐˜•๐˜ˆ๐˜•๐˜‹ chips for AI servers, phones, PCs and cars โ€ข Fiscal Q4 (ended Sept 3) revenue hit $54.2B, up 379% YoY โ€ข Gross margin reached 87%, up from 46% a year ago โ€ข Guided next quarter to about $61.5B in revenue โ€ข Holds $73.5B in cash against $5.2B of debt โ€ข $35.16B buyback scheduled to start Dec 9 โ€ข Settled the Netlist patent fight for $600M, paid $30M a quarter โ€ข Opened India's first semiconductor assembly and test plant in Sanand, Gujarat this year โ€ข ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐˜: ๐˜™๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ญ, ๐˜ฃ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ค๐˜บ๐˜ค๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ญ. One of only three big makers of AI-grade HBM memory, but memory prices swing hard โ€ข ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€: SK Hynix, Samsung, CXMT โ€ข ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ถ๐—น๐—น ๐˜„๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ต ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด: โ€“ Memory booms have historically ended in oversupply โ€“ Rivals are racing to add HBM capacity โ€“ Taiwan union dispute over profit-sharing โ€“ Any slowdown in AI data center spending hits demand fast Current Financial Quality Score: 100/100 (Grade A) Which stock should I break down next? Drop the ticker below. ๐˜•๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฆ. ๐˜‹๐˜ฐ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ.
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This company is a cash machine right now. Its latest quarter vs. a year ago: - Revenue: +379% - Net profit: $37.7B (was $3.2B) - Gross margin: 87% (was 46%) - Next quarter guide: $61.5B in revenue And it still trades at about 12x earnings. Guess the ticker. Full breakdown drops next. ๐Ÿ‘€
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E14 - Let's decode $TSLA Q3 earnings Orders are piling up. The factory can't keep pace. And Elon might be eyeing a rocket company. ๐——๐—ถ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐˜† ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐˜? โ€ข Sales matched expectations โ€ข Adjusted profit and cash flow beat them, the cash flow by a lot โ€ข Reported profit still fell sharply from a year ago ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น โ€ข Profit per car improved, even without regulatory credits โ€ข Cash flow came in positive when analysts expected a big burn โ€ข FSD subscriptions jumped, and most new cars in North America now come with it โ€ข Services (charging, insurance, repairs and more) grew fast ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ป'๐˜ โ€ข Energy storage sales fell, partly because of tariff-related refunds โ€ข Credit sales to other carmakers mostly dried up โ€ข Heavy spending on AI and engineering squeezed overall profit ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—ด ๐˜๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜ โ€ข A day earlier, Musk said both Tesla's and SpaceX's boards had set up special committees to look at combining the two โ€ข He also said treating a deal as certain would be "overstating it" ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—ฒ๐˜…๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐˜€ โ€ข No delivery target, just running factories at maximum capacity โ€ข Battery supply is the main limit on making more cars โ€ข Spending this year to roughly triple, on robots, AI compute, the Cybercab and a chip fab ๐—›๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ ๐—ถ๐˜ โ€ข Up about 3% during the day, then roughly 1.4% more shortly after the report ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ต ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜…๐˜ ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ โ€“ Whether battery supply lets deliveries grow โ€“ How the Cybercab ramps, including the safety regulator's questions due Oct 30 โ€“ Whether the energy business bounces back โ€“ Any formal news on the SpaceX committees ๐—™๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ๐˜€: ๐Ÿ”น Revenue: $28.05B (Est. ~$28.1B) ๐ŸŸก flat YoY ๐Ÿ”น Adj. EPS: $0.48 (Est. ~$0.45) ๐ŸŸข โˆ’4% YoY ๐Ÿ”น GAAP EPS: $0.22, โˆ’44% YoY ๐Ÿ”น Adj. EBITDA: $3.90B (Est. ~$3.66B) ๐ŸŸข โˆ’8% YoY ๐Ÿ”น Free cash flow: $1.53B (Est. ~โˆ’$4.9B) ๐ŸŸข ๐Ÿ”น Automotive: $20.56B, โˆ’3% | Energy: $2.88B, โˆ’16% | Services & other: $4.61B, +33% ๐Ÿ”น Gross margin: 19.6% (vs 18.0%) | Auto GM excl. credits: 18.1% (vs 15.4%) ๐Ÿ”น Regulatory credits: $113M, โˆ’73% ๐Ÿ”น Opex: $4.78B, +39% | R&D: $2.76B, +69% ๐Ÿ”น Operating income: $718M, โˆ’56% | Op. margin: 2.6% (vs 5.8%) ๐Ÿ”น GAAP net income: $787M | Adj. net income: $1.70B ๐Ÿ”น Operating cash flow: $6.26B | Capex: $4.73B (Est. ~$7.96B) ๐Ÿ”น Cash & investments: $45.4B ๐Ÿ”น Deliveries: 486,532, โˆ’2% (Est. ~462K) ๐ŸŸข | Production: 464,391 ๐Ÿ”น Storage deployed: 13.7 GWh, +10% (Est. ~15.9 GWh) ๐Ÿ”ด ๐Ÿ”น Active FSD subscriptions: 1.74M, +67% | FSD attach >75% of new North America deliveries ๐Ÿ”ธ Cybercab robotaxi rides in Austin since Sept 3, ~2M unsupervised robotaxi miles ๐Ÿ”ธ Optimus production started on high-volume lines in Fremont ๐Ÿ”ธ Megafactory Texas started production (50 GWh planned) | Semi in volume production ๐Ÿ”ธ 2026 capex guide: >$25B ๐Ÿ”ธ Bitcoin gain $288M, SpaceX stake loss $142M (unrealized, in GAAP) ๐Ÿ”ธ Peers: BYD ( $BYDDF), Rivian ( $RIVN), Lucid ( $LCID) ๐˜•๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฆ. ๐˜‹๐˜ฐ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ.
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E13 - Let's decode $META Q3 earnings Wall Street braced for a messy quarter. It got a record instead. Plus a surprise gift for every shareholder. And one very expensive check tucked inside. ๐——๐—ถ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐˜† ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐˜? โ€ข Yes on sales, which hit a new record โ€ข Next quarter's sales forecast also came in above expectations โ€ข Reported profit was weighed down by a one-time legal settlement ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น โ€ข Advertisers paid more for each ad, and Meta showed more of them โ€ข Its AI tools are making ads work better, and the CEO says that spending is paying off โ€ข Its first frontier AI models, Muse and Muse Wonder, launched ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ป'๐˜ โ€ข Spending on data centers was bigger than the cash the business brought in โ€ข Borrowing climbed to help pay for it โ€ข Reality Labs (VR and smart glasses) is still losing billions ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—ด ๐˜๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜ โ€ข Every shareholder will get a free non-voting Class C share for each share they own โ€ข It works like a 2-for-1 split, starting in January 2027 โ€ข It gives Meta a new stock to use for raising money, paying staff or buying companies, without changing voting control ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—ฒ๐˜…๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐˜€ โ€ข Strong sales growth into 2027, with heavy investment continuing โ€ข Reality Labs losses should shrink next year ๐—›๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ ๐—ถ๐˜ โ€ข Shares jumped about 4% in the first minutes after the report ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ต ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜…๐˜ ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ โ€“ Whether spending keeps outrunning cash flow โ€“ More teen-safety trials scheduled in the coming months โ€“ Whether Muse can start making money โ€“ The 2027 spending plan ๐—™๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ๐˜€: ๐Ÿ”น Revenue: $64.60B (Est. ~$63.3B) ๐ŸŸข +26% YoY ๐Ÿ”น EPS: $3.83 (Est. ~$3.56) ๐ŸŸข +265% YoY ๐Ÿ”น EPS excl. legal charge: $7.40 ๐Ÿ”น Operating income: $12.99B, โˆ’37% YoY | excl. charge: $22.88B ๐Ÿ”น Operating margin: 20% (vs 40%) | excl. charge: ~35% ๐Ÿ”น Net income: $9.86B, +264% YoY (last year had a big tax charge) ๐Ÿ”น Ad revenue: $63.06B, +26% ๐Ÿ”น Ad impressions +10% | Avg. price per ad +14% ๐Ÿ”น Daily active people: 3.64B, +3% ๐Ÿ”น Family of Apps: $64.16B revenue, $17.12B operating income ๐Ÿ”น Reality Labs: $443M revenue (โˆ’6%), โˆ’$4.13B operating loss ๐Ÿ”น Capex: $34.91B | Operating cash flow: $32.79B | FCF: โˆ’$2.12B ๐Ÿ”น Cash & securities: $82.45B | Long-term debt: $80.92B (from $58.74B in Dec) ๐Ÿ”น Headcount: 66,775 (โˆ’15%) | Buybacks: none | Dividends: $1.36B ๐Ÿ”ธ Legal charge: $9.89B (โˆ’$3.57/share), part of a settlement of up to ~$18.59B with 52 attorneys general ๐Ÿ”ธ Q4 revenue guide: $73โ€“76B (Est. ~$73.6B) ๐ŸŸข, ~1% FX headwind ๐Ÿ”ธ FY26 total expenses: $175โ€“179B (now includes the $9.9B charge) ๐Ÿ”ธ FY26 capex: $135โ€“145B (narrowed from $130โ€“145B) ๐Ÿ”ธ Reality Labs loss: $18โ€“19B in 2026, ~$15B in 2027 ๐Ÿ”ธ Q4 tax rate: 15โ€“17% ๐Ÿ”ธ Class C: one non-voting share per A/B share, effective Jan 19, 2027, Nasdaq listing planned ๐Ÿ”ธ Peers: Alphabet ( $GOOGL), Amazon ( $AMZN), Snap ( $SNAP), Reddit ( $RDDT) ๐˜•๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฆ. ๐˜‹๐˜ฐ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ.
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X108 - $TSLA: Tesla Elon wants his rocket company and his car company under one roof. The stock jumped on the news. Tonight, the books open. ๐—ง๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—น๐—ฎ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ฎ ๐—ป๐˜‚๐˜๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น: โ€ข Sells EVs ( ๐˜”๐˜ฐ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ 3, ๐˜”๐˜ฐ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ ๐˜ ), ๐˜”๐˜ฆ๐˜จ๐˜ข๐˜ฑ๐˜ข๐˜ค๐˜ฌ batteries, charging and ๐˜๐˜š๐˜‹ software โ€ข Q2 2026 revenue hit a record $28.2B, up 26% โ€ข Q2 deliveries rose 25% to 480,126; Q3 came in at 486,532 โ€ข Active FSD subscriptions grew 56% to 1.48M โ€ข Q2 free cash flow was -$1.1B as capex more than doubled to $5.8B โ€ข Robotaxi is running in 7 metros, and ๐˜Š๐˜บ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ฃ production has started in Texas โ€ข Fremont's Model S/X lines were retired to build ๐˜–๐˜ฑ๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฎ๐˜ถ๐˜ด robots โ€ข Tesla and SpaceX boards formed special committees to study a possible merger โ€ข ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐˜: ๐˜™๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ญ, ๐˜ฃ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ด. Scale, Superchargers and real-world driving data still lead โ€ข ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€: BYD ( $BYDDY), Waymo ( $GOOGL), Rivian ( $RIVN), Lucid ( $LCID), GM ( $GM), Ford ( $F) โ€ข ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ถ๐—น๐—น ๐˜„๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ต ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด: โ€“ Regulatory credit revenue fell 67% YoY in Q2 โ€“ NHTSA scrutiny of driverless Cybercab โ€“ A SpaceX deal could dilute existing shareholders โ€“ Chinese EV price cuts and softer consumer demand Current Financial Quality Score: 70/100 (Grade B) Which stock should I break down next? Drop the ticker below. ๐˜•๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฆ. ๐˜‹๐˜ฐ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ.
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๐ŸŽฏ Entry levels (Fib support) ๐ŸŸข High quality $MS $176 ยท Q83 ยท 21% off high $TTD $11.62 ยท Q82 ยท 77% off high $TROW $98.04 ยท Q85 ยท 15% off high $TXN $279 ยท Q89 ยท 15% off high ๐ŸŸก Solid $UNH $417 ยท Q67 ยท 9% off high $HON $209 ยท Q66 ยท 17% off high $MCD $239 ยท Q70 ยท 27% off high ๐Ÿ”ด Speculative $PEG $69.16 ยท Q51 ยท 17% off high $ROP $393 ยท Q51 ยท 23% off high $COO $56.81 ยท Q42 ยท 34% off high Which stock you need a deep dive analysis on, comment below ๐˜•๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜ง๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฆ. ๐˜‹๐˜ฐ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ.
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X107 - $META: Meta Platforms One company quietly owns your scroll, your group chats and your feed. Last quarter, almost every dollar it earned went somewhere surprising. Results drop tonight after the close. ๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฎ ๐—ฃ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—บ๐˜€ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ฎ ๐—ป๐˜‚๐˜๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น: โ€ข Runs ๐˜๐˜ข๐˜ค๐˜ฆ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฌ, ๐˜๐˜ฏ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜จ๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ฎ, ๐˜ž๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ด๐˜ˆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฑ and ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ๐˜ด, free for users and paid for by ads (~98% of revenue) โ€ข Q2 2026 revenue grew 28% to $60.8B โ€ข Ad impressions rose 14% and the average price per ad rose 12% โ€ข EPS fell 13%, hit by a $2.4B legal charge, $1.2B in severance and rising AI costs โ€ข Reality Labs ( ๐˜™๐˜ข๐˜บ-๐˜‰๐˜ข๐˜ฏ ๐˜”๐˜ฆ๐˜ต๐˜ข glasses, ๐˜˜๐˜ถ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ต headsets) lost $4.6B in the quarter โ€ข 2026 capex guided at $130-145B, mostly for AI data centers โ€ข India is WhatsApp's biggest market by users โ€ข Q3 results are out today, Oct 21, after the close โ€ข ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐˜: ๐˜™๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ. Billions of daily users and years of ad-targeting data are very hard to copy โ€ข ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€: Alphabet ( $GOOGL), Amazon ( $AMZN), Snap ( $SNAP), Pinterest ( $PINS), TikTok โ€ข ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ถ๐—น๐—น ๐˜„๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ต ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด: โ€“ AI spending is eating most of the cash the business makes โ€“ About $17B settlement with 47 states over youth-harm claims (allegations, not rulings), paid over 10 years โ€“ Ad budgets could tighten if the economy slows Current Financial Quality Score: 88/100 (Grade A) Which stock should I break down next? Drop the ticker below. ๐˜•๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฆ. ๐˜‹๐˜ฐ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ.
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๐ŸŽฏ Entry levels (Fib support) ๐ŸŸข High quality $APH $77.45 ยท Q84 ยท 12% off high $ZETA $31.81 ยท Q82 ยท 6% off high $MSFT $510 ยท Q91 ยท 4% off high ๐ŸŸก Solid $HSY $169 ยท Q74 ยท 28% off high $MRVL $232 ยท Q66 ยท 27% off high $GEN $22.76 ยท Q72 ยท 24% off high ๐Ÿ”ด Speculative $WDAY $204 ยท Q56 ยท 18% off high $NWSA $30.29 ยท Q52 ยท 3% off high $HRL $20.33 ยท Q45 ยท 21% off high Which stock you need a deep dive analysis on, comment below ๐˜•๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜ง๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฆ. ๐˜‹๐˜ฐ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ.
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E12 - Let's decode $SPCX Q3 earnings Rockets used to be the whole story. Now they're the smallest piece of it. A data-center landlord wearing a spacesuit. ๐——๐—ถ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐˜† ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐˜? โ€ข Yes, by a wide margin on sales, earnings per share and EBITDA โ€ข The one soft spot: Starlink signed up fewer homes than analysts hoped ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น โ€ข Renting computing power to AI labs (including Anthropic and Google) took off, and that unit is now the largest part of the company โ€ข Starlink nearly doubled its home subscribers in a year โ€ข Sales almost doubled from the previous quarter โ€ข The AI unit made an operating profit, after a big loss a year ago ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ป'๐˜ โ€ข The launch business barely grew and slipped to a small operating loss โ€ข Starlink subscriber growth came in below forecasts ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—ด ๐˜๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜ โ€ข It poured more money into data centers and hardware than it brought in from customers โ€ข A huge cash pile from the June IPO is funding that build-out ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—ฒ๐˜…๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐˜€ โ€ข No formal forecast โ€ข Targets: a $100B+ yearly revenue pace by December and 2+ GW of compute by year-end ๐—›๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ ๐—ถ๐˜ โ€ข Shares rose roughly 1.5% to 2.6% in early after-hours trading ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ต ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜…๐˜ ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ โ€“ Starship Flight 15 โ€“ Whether the $100B revenue pace target is hit โ€“ How quickly the build-out spending turns into revenue โ€“ Any new borrowing or share sales to fund growth ๐—™๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ๐˜€: ๐Ÿ”น Revenue: $14.58B (Est. ~$12.7B) ๐ŸŸข +161% YoY ๐Ÿ”น EPS: $0.35 (Est. ~$0.15) ๐ŸŸข vs โˆ’$0.36 last year ๐Ÿ”น Adj. EBITDA: $8.81B (Est. ~$6.59B) ๐ŸŸข +306% YoY ๐Ÿ”น Net income: $4.40B vs โˆ’$1.05B last year ๐Ÿ”น Operating income: $2.79B vs โˆ’$273M last year ๐Ÿ”น Starlink home subs: 13.6M (Est. ~14.3M) ๐Ÿ”ด +89% YoY ๐Ÿ”น Capex: $19.59B (Est. ~$19.6B) ๐ŸŸก, of which AI: $16.44B ๐Ÿ”น SI (AI): $7.56B, +830% | op. income $431M ๐Ÿ”น Connectivity (Starlink): $5.25B, +69% | op. income $2.37B ๐Ÿ”น Space: $1.77B, +6% | op. loss $7M ๐Ÿ”น Compute: 1.7 GW (from 0.6 GW a year ago) ๐Ÿ”ธ Cash & marketable securities: ~$89.9B ๐Ÿ”ธ Cursor deal closed Aug 14 (~$60B implied value): $608M revenue so far, $1.2B stock-pay charge ๐Ÿ”ธ Starship Flight 14 = first revenue-generating flight (26 V3 Starlink satellites) ๐Ÿ”ธ Grok Bot launched; Starbase Louisiana (~$100B) spaceport planned ๐Ÿ”ธ Peers: Tesla ( $TSLA), Rocket Lab ( $RKLB), AST SpaceMobile ( $ASTS) ๐˜•๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฆ. ๐˜‹๐˜ฐ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ.
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E11 - Let's decode $ISRG Q3 earnings The operating room keeps getting busier. One courtroom bill just got paid. Strong quarter, but the stock is heading the other way. ๐——๐—ถ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐˜† ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐˜? โ€ข Yes. Adjusted profit and sales both came in well above forecasts โ€ข Reported profit fell, but almost all of that was one legal payment ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น โ€ข Hospitals bought a lot more robots, led by the new da Vinci 5 โ€ข Surgeries using its systems grew in the mid-teens โ€ข Ion, its lung biopsy robot, is growing fastest โ€ข Instruments, which every surgery uses up, keep bringing in steady sales ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ป'๐˜ โ€ข A big antitrust settlement took a large bite out of reported profit โ€ข Tariffs are still trimming margins ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—ด ๐˜๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜ โ€ข Intuitive agreed to pay $450M to settle a long-running antitrust class action โ€ข It admits no wrongdoing, and the deal still needs a judge's sign-off ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—ฒ๐˜…๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐˜€ โ€ข Full-year procedure growth kept at 14โ€“15%, now expected near the middle of that range โ€ข Margin and spending outlook unchanged ๐—›๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ ๐—ถ๐˜ โ€ข Closed up about 1% before the report, then dropped roughly 7% after hours ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ต ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜…๐˜ ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ โ€“ Court approval of the settlement โ€“ Whether procedure growth holds in the mid-teens โ€“ Hospital spending budgets for 2027 โ€“ Tariff costs ๐—™๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ๐˜€: ๐Ÿ”น Revenue: $3.05B (Est. ~$2.91B) ๐ŸŸข +22% YoY ๐Ÿ”น Adj. EPS: $3.00 (Est. ~$2.64) ๐ŸŸข +25% YoY ๐Ÿ”น GAAP EPS: $1.49 (vs $1.95 last year) ๐Ÿ”ด ๐Ÿ”น Adj. gross margin: 69.9% | GAAP: 68.4% ๐Ÿ”น Adj. operating income: $1.27B (41.6% margin) | GAAP: $593M ๐Ÿ”น Instruments & accessories: $1.80B, +18% ๐Ÿ”น Systems: $769M, +30% ๐Ÿ”น Services: $482M, +22% ๐Ÿ”น Procedures: +15% (da Vinci +14%, Ion +31%) ๐Ÿ”น da Vinci placements: 546 (vs 427), of which da Vinci 5: 315 (vs 240) ๐Ÿ”น Ion placements: 56 (vs 50) ๐Ÿ”น Installed base: 12,094 da Vinci (+12%), 1,152 Ion (+21%) ๐Ÿ”ธ $450M pre-tax settlement = $347M after tax, $0.99/share ๐Ÿ”ธ $22M tariff refund helped ($0.06/share) ๐Ÿ”ธ 2026 guide: da Vinci procedures +14โ€“15% ๐ŸŸก (held), adj. gross margin 68.7โ€“69.3% (incl. ~0.9 pt tariff hit), adj. opex growth 11โ€“13% ๐Ÿ”ธ Buybacks: $2.94B (7.8M shares) ๐Ÿ”ธ Cash & investments: $6.80B ๐Ÿ”ธ Peers: Medtronic ( $MDT), Stryker ( $SYK), Johnson & Johnson ( $JNJ) ๐˜•๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฆ. ๐˜‹๐˜ฐ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ.
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E10 - Let's decode $NFLX Q3 earnings Netflix kept nearly 35 cents of every dollar as operating profit last quarter. Then it told investors the next few months will look a bit softer. Wall Street cared more about the second part. ๐——๐—ถ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐˜† ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐˜? โ€ข Earnings per share beat estimates โ€ข Revenue landed right on target โ€ข But the forecast for next quarter came in below expectations ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น โ€ข Profit up 44% from a year ago โ€ข Every region grew by double digits, led by Latin America โ€ข Record quarter for new paying members in India โ€ข Bought back $4.8B of stock, its largest quarter ever ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ป'๐˜ โ€ข Ad revenue is growing slower than Netflix planned โ€ข Viewing hours aren't growing much, and Netflix admitted investors are worried โ€ข The full-year cash target was trimmed ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—ด ๐˜๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜ โ€ข Netflix cut its 2026 ad revenue goal from about $3B to about $2.7B โ€ข Some ad features are rolling out slower than expected โ€ข Recent job cuts will also weigh on Q4 margins ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—ฒ๐˜…๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐˜€ โ€ข Full-year revenue of about $51.1B and a 31.5% operating margin โ€ข Ad tier launching in 15 more countries in 2027 โ€ข A big live lineup: three NFL games, including Thanksgiving Eve with a U2 halftime show, plus Fury vs. Joshua ๐—›๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ ๐—ถ๐˜ โ€ข Shares dropped about 5% in the first minutes after the report โ€ข Investors focused on the softer outlook, not the strong quarter โ€ข Early after-hours moves can shift once the interview airs ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ต ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜…๐˜ ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ โ€“ Do viewing hours start growing again? โ€“ Can the ad business get back on its original pace? โ€“ Do live sports bring in new members? ๐—™๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ๐˜€: Q3 2026: ๐Ÿ”น Revenue: $12.87B (Est. $12.87B) ๐ŸŸก; +12% YoY ๐Ÿ”น EPS: $0.87 (Est. $0.82) ๐ŸŸข; +49% YoY ๐Ÿ”น Operating Income: $4.46B (Est. $4.26B) ๐ŸŸข; +37% YoY ๐Ÿ”น Operating Margin: 34.6%; +640 bps YoY ๐Ÿ”น Net Income: $3.66B (Est. $3.45B) ๐ŸŸข; +44% YoY Q4 Guide: ๐Ÿ”น Revenue: $13.44B (Est. $13.52B) ๐Ÿ”ด ๐Ÿ”น EPS: $0.67 (Est. $0.73) ๐Ÿ”ด ๐Ÿ”น Operating Income: $3.50B (Est. $3.73B) ๐Ÿ”ด ๐Ÿ”น Operating Margin: 26.0% (incl. ~120 bps from headcount reductions) FY26 Guide: ๐Ÿ”น Revenue: $51.1B (Est. $51.23B) ๐Ÿ”ด ๐Ÿ”น Operating Margin: 31.5% ๐Ÿ”น Ad Revenue: ~$2.7B (was ~$3B) ๐Ÿ”น Free Cash Flow: ~$12.0B (was ~$12.5B; real estate deal closing in Q4) Revenue by Region: ๐Ÿ”น US & Canada: $5.63B; +11% YoY ๐Ÿ”น EMEA: $4.11B; +11% YoY ๐Ÿ”น Latin America: $1.60B; +17% YoY ๐Ÿ”น Asia-Pacific: $1.54B; +12% YoY Cash & Capital: ๐Ÿ”น Free Cash Flow: $2.88B (Est. $3.18B) ๐Ÿ”ด; vs $2.66B LY ๐Ÿ”น Operating Cash Flow: $3.16B; vs $2.83B LY ๐Ÿ”น Share Repurchases: $4.8B (63.9M shares, record quarter) ๐Ÿ”น Remaining Authorization: $22.3B ๐Ÿ”น Gross Debt: $15.3B; Cash: $8.2B Key Updates: ๐Ÿ”ธ Ad tier expanding to 15 new countries in 2027, starting in March ๐Ÿ”ธ TF1 partnership in France launched this summer ๐Ÿ”ธ New Disney licensing deal, including all five Ice Age films ๐Ÿ”ธ $1B bond deal in Q3 to fund a $1B maturity in Q4 Streaming rivals to compare: Disney ( $DIS), Amazon ( $AMZN), Warner Bros. Discovery ( $WBD), Comcast ( $CMCSA) ๐˜•๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฆ. ๐˜‹๐˜ฐ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ.
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We will be decoding below earnings today: $NFLX $ISRG $SPCX Earnings reports are complex, we will simplify so that it's easy to understand. Follow the page.
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X106 - $V: Visa Visa just hit an all-time high. China opened the door a crack. The DOJ is still knocking on the other one. Here's the full picture before next week's earnings ๐Ÿ‘‡ ๐—ฉ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฎ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ฎ ๐—ป๐˜‚๐˜๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น: โ€ข Runs the world's largest card network; banks issue the cards, Visa routes every swipe โ€ข Fiscal Q3 net revenue: $11.6B, up 14%; adjusted EPS $3.32, up 11% โ€ข $4 trillion+ in payments volume per quarter; cross-border volume up 12% โ€ข Bought back $4.9B of stock in one quarter โ€ข China's central bank approved Visa to prepare a domestic card-clearing business โ€ข ๐˜๐˜ช๐˜ด๐˜ข ๐˜‹๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ต stablecoin payouts moved from pilot to commercial use โ€ข ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐˜: Billions of cards and millions of stores feed each other. ๐˜™๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ญ: ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ต ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฐ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜บ๐˜ธ๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ โ€ข ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€: Mastercard ( $MA), American Express ( $AXP), Capital One ( $COF), China UnionPay (state-owned) โ€ข ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ถ๐—น๐—น ๐˜„๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ต ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด: โ€“ Fiscal Q4 results Oct 27, after the close โ€“ DOJ debit lawsuit (allegations, not rulings) โ€“ Swipe-fee caps spreading worldwide โ€“ Consumer spending if the economy slows Current Financial Quality Score: 94/100 (Grade A) Estimated fair value: $404.42 Which stock should I break down next? Drop the ticker below. ๐˜•๐˜ฐ๐˜ต ๐˜๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ˆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฆ. ๐˜‹๐˜ฐ ๐˜บ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฉ.
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