E16 - Let's decode $WDC Q1 earnings
Every AI model needs somewhere to keep its data.
Western Digital sells the space.
Business is booming.
The share price didn't get the memo.
๐๐ถ๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐ช๐ฎ๐น๐น ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐?
โข Yes, on both sales and earnings, for the sixth quarter in a row
โข Next quarter's outlook landed well above what analysts expected
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐น
โข Sales grew more than 50% from a year ago
โข It keeps a much bigger share of each sale than it did a year ago
โข Strong cash flow paid for big buybacks and a higher dividend
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ป'๐
โข Cash on hand dipped after the heavy buybacks
โข The company leans on a handful of huge cloud customers
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ด ๐๐๐ถ๐๐
โข The business keeps getting stronger, but the stock is down more than half from its high
โข It had already dropped about 22% in the month before the report
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐
โข Another jump in sales next quarter, up 66% to 72% from a year ago
โข Margins rising again
๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ ๐ถ๐
โข Fell about 6% during the day, then bounced briefly and fell roughly 7% more after hours
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ป๐ฒ๐
๐ ๐พ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ
โ Whether hard drive prices stay strong
โ Cloud companies' spending plans for 2027
โ Whether margins really reach the 60% range
โ The next-generation 44TB HAMR drive rollout
๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ๐:
๐น Revenue: $4.38B (Est. ~$4.14B) ๐ข +55% YoY, +17% QoQ
๐น Adj. EPS: $4.64 (Est. ~$4.08) ๐ข +161% YoY
๐น GAAP EPS: $4.63, +51% YoY
๐น Gross margin: 58.1% adj. (vs 43.9%) | 57.8% GAAP
๐น Operating income: $2.15B adj. (49.1% margin) | $2.05B GAAP, +158%
๐น Net income: $1.78B, +51%
๐น Operating cash flow: $1.60B | Capex: $227M | FCF: $1.38B
๐น Buybacks: $1.00B | Dividends paid: $56M
๐น Cash: $1.31B (from $1.58B)
๐ธ Q2 FY27 guide: revenue $5.0โ5.2B (Est. ~$4.57B) ๐ข
๐ธ Q2 FY27 guide: adj. EPS $5.60โ6.00 (Est. ~$4.82) ๐ข
๐ธ Q2 FY27 guide: adj. gross margin 60โ61% | opex $400โ410M | tax ~17% | ~380M shares
๐ธ Quarterly dividend raised 17% to $0.175 (record Dec 4, paid Dec 17)
๐ธ Peers: Seagate ( $STX), Micron ( $MU), Pure Storage ( $PSTG)
๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ. ๐๐ฐ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ค๐ฉ.
Market wrap (Oct 22):
Tech led a sharp sell-off as worries about the payoff from AI spending came back after a heavy night of earnings. The Nasdaq fell 2.6%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.2% and the Dow finished flat. Bitcoin slid about 4% and oil climbed.
AI names took the hit: Meta Platforms ( $META) sank 7%, while Nvidia ( $NVDA) and Amazon ( $AMZN) were down more than 4% during the session.
Meta Platforms ( $META) closed down 7% even after beating on sales and profit, as it raised its full-year capital spending outlook to $135 billion-$145 billion and free cash flow turned negative. It also announced a 2-for-1 stock split.
Tesla ( $TSLA) fell 3% after cutting its 2026 spending plan to about $20 billion from more than $25 billion, while flagging higher spending in 2027 and 2028.
Moderna ( $MRNA) plunged about 25% after late-stage results for its melanoma cancer vaccine with Merck ( $MRK) appeared to leak online ahead of a weekend conference. The data looked positive, but investors questioned whether it justified the stock's big run this year.
SpaceX ( $SPCX) fell 9%, giving back more than half of Wednesday's post-earnings jump.
CoreWeave ( $CRWV) sank about 10% on renewed worries about its borrowing costs and debt-heavy balance sheet.
Lam Research ( $LRCX) slid about 9% during the session despite record quarterly revenue of $8.22 billion, as investors took profits in chip equipment stocks.
Blackstone ( $BX) jumped 8% after executives struck an upbeat tone on deal exits and fee growth. Assets under management rose 10% to a record $1.37 trillion.
Spotify ( $SPOT) rose more than 9% as operating income beat estimates and margins improved.
After the bell:
Western Digital ( $WDC) rises about 2% after hours after a strong beat. Quarterly revenue jumped 55% to $4.38 billion and adjusted EPS of $4.64 topped estimates. It guided next quarter to about $5.1 billion in revenue, well above the roughly $4.6 billion Wall Street expected.
Bloom Energy ( $BE) also reports tonight.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
E15 - Let's decode $BE Q3 earnings
AI's biggest bottleneck isn't chips anymore.
It's electricity.
Bloom just posted its best quarter ever.
Traders sold it anyway.
๐๐ถ๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐ช๐ฎ๐น๐น ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐?
โข Yes, comfortably, on sales and adjusted earnings
โข Then they raised their full-year targets above what analysts expected
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐น
โข Fuel-cell system sales nearly tripled as data centers race to secure power
โข Margins widened, so growth is turning into real profit
โข Last year's small loss became a big profit
โข Installation and service revenue grew too
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ป'๐
โข Day-to-day operations used cash instead of bringing it in
โข Inventory built up fast ahead of future deliveries
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ด ๐๐๐ถ๐๐
โข A record profit, but less cash in the bank from operations
โข Most of the gap is parts and finished systems sitting in inventory, waiting to ship
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐
โข Third raise of the 2026 outlook this year
โข The CFO credited year-to-date performance and customer demand
๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ ๐ถ๐
โข Fell almost 9% during the day, giving back the previous day's jump, then slipped further after hours
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ป๐ฒ๐
๐ ๐พ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ
โ Whether cash flow turns positive as inventory ships
โ Demand beyond AI data centers
โ First targets for 2027
โ Whether the big swings in AI power stocks continue
๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ๐:
๐น Revenue: $1.24B (Est. ~$1.05B) ๐ข +138% YoY
๐น Adj. EPS: $0.94 (Est. ~$0.68) ๐ข vs $0.15 LY
๐น GAAP EPS: $0.78 vs โ$0.10 LY
๐น Product: $1.07B, +179% | Installation: $85M, +29% | Service: $68M, +15% | Electricity: $10M, โ6%
๐น Gross margin: 33.8% GAAP (+453 bps) | 34.5% adj. (+412 bps)
๐น Operating income: $225M GAAP (vs $8M) | $286M adj. (Est. ~$214M) ๐ข
๐น Net income: $250M vs โ$23M LY
๐น Operating cash flow: โ$27M (vs +$20M LY)
๐น Inventory: $928M (from $643M in Dec)
๐น Cash: $2.49B
๐ธ FY26 revenue guide: $4.4โ4.6B (was $3.9โ4.2B; Est. ~$4.1B) ๐ข
๐ธ FY26 adj. EPS guide: $3.10โ3.40 (was $2.55โ2.85; Est. ~$2.72) ๐ข
๐ธ FY26 adj. gross margin ~34% | adj. operating income $960Mโ$1.03B
๐ธ Joined the S&P 500 in the September rebalance
๐ธ Peers: FuelCell Energy ( $FCEL), Plug Power ( $PLUG), GE Vernova ( $GEV)
๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ. ๐๐ฐ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ค๐ฉ.
Premarket movers (Oct 22):
Futures are lower across the board: Nasdaq 100 -1.6%, S&P 500 -0.9%, Dow -0.5%, as doubts about the payoff from AI spending return after a heavy night of tech earnings. Oil is up about 1.6% and bitcoin is down 2.6%.
Tesla ( $TSLA) drops 5% after cutting its 2026 capital spending plan to about $20 billion from more than $25 billion. Adjusted EPS of 48 cents beat estimates, but net income fell 29% and automotive revenue slipped 3%.
Meta Platforms ( $META) slips about 1% even after beating on sales and profit, as it raised its full-year capital spending outlook to $135 billion-$145 billion and free cash flow turned negative in the quarter.
Lam Research ( $LRCX) falls 7%-9% despite record revenue of $8.22 billion, up 54% from a year ago, as investors take profits after a sharp run in chip equipment stocks.
International Business Machines ( $IBM) falls 5% after third-quarter results. Revenue rose 5% to $17.1 billion, but gross margin missed estimates and CEO Arvind Krishna said some customers are questioning whether AI investments are paying off.
Lockheed Martin ( $LMT) rises more than 3% after beating estimates and raising its full-year sales, profit and cash flow outlook for the second straight quarter. Its backlog hit a record $292 billion.
Allegion ( $ALLE) gains 5% after adjusted EPS of $2.60 beat the $2.50 estimate and the lock maker raised its full-year guidance.
Spotify ( $SPOT) rises 5% as operating income beat estimates and its fourth-quarter profit forecast came in above expectations, even though revenue was slightly light.
Procter & Gamble ( $PG) gains 2% after sales of $23.28 billion and core EPS of $2.00 beat estimates. The Tide-maker now expects higher commodity and transport costs to take about $1.4 billion out of this year's profit, up from $1 billion, but kept its outlook.
Rollins ( $ROL) falls 7% after the pest-control company reported worse-than-expected quarterly sales.
Kaiser Aluminum ( $KALU) falls 6% after third-quarter adjusted EPS came in below estimates.
QuantumScape ( $QS) jumps 9% after a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss and plans for a new solid-state battery production line.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
X110 - $HIMS: Hims & Hers Health
Millions of people now get their prescriptions through an app.
The company behind it just expanded into four new countries.
Wall Street still can't agree what it's worth.
๐๐ถ๐บ๐ & ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฎ ๐ป๐๐๐๐ต๐ฒ๐น๐น:
โข Online doctor visits plus subscription treatments for hair, skin, sexual health, weight loss and more
โข Q2 2026 revenue was $753M, up 38% YoY, with 2.9M subscribers
โข Revenue per subscriber rose to $92 a month, up 21%
โข Closed the Eucalyptus deal in June, adding Australia, the UK, Germany and Japan
โข Gross margin fell to 64% from 76%
โข Now sells branded GLP-1s after scaling back compounded weight-loss drugs
โข Launched injectable and oral testosterone therapy on Oct 21
โข Raised 2026 revenue guidance to $3.1B-$3.3B
โข ๐ ๐ผ๐ฎ๐: ๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ. A strong brand, but rivals and drugmakers can offer the same treatments
โข ๐๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐๐ถ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐: Ro, Eli Lilly ( $LLY), Novo Nordisk ( $NVO), WeightWatchers ( $WW)
โข ๐ฆ๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ต ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด:
โ FTC lawsuit over billing, cancellations and health-data sharing (allegations, not rulings)
โ $1.37B in convertible notes on the balance sheet
โ Drugmakers selling GLP-1s directly to patients
โ Consumer spending on out-of-pocket health care
Current Financial Quality Score: 10/100
Estimated fair value: $12.72
Which stock should I break down next? Drop the ticker below.
๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ. ๐๐ฐ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ค๐ฉ.
N6 - Wednesday's biggest stock moves (Oct 21)
Two boards. Two special committees. And the man at the center of it says he can't be in the room.
Meanwhile, AI hardware got its swagger back and Netflix had a slowdown to explain.
Here's everything that moved Wednesday:
๐ช๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ป๐ฒ๐๐ฑ๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ด๐ด๐ฒ๐๐ ๐๐๐ผ๐ฐ๐ธ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ (๐ข๐ฐ๐ ๐ฎ๐ญ):
โข SpaceX ( $SPCX) +7.8%: Q3 revenue of $14.58B beat estimates on both sales and profit. On the call, Musk said a merger with Tesla ( $TSLA) would be a good idea but isn't a certainty. Both boards have formed special committees of independent directors to study it, and Musk says he can't take part because he's conflicted.
โข AT&T ( $T) โ6.5%: Q3 earnings topped estimates, but it added fewer postpaid phone customers than Wall Street expected. Verizon ( $VZ) โ2.2% and T-Mobile ( $TMUS) โ2.5% fell with it.
โข Netflix ( $NFLX) โ5.3%: Its slowest sales growth in three years, plus a forecast for a fourth straight quarter of slowing growth.
โข Capital One ( $COF) +4.1%: Strong Q3 with $3.5B in net income and adjusted EPS of $6.69. Its net interest margin widened to 8.41%.
โข Super Micro Computer ( $SMCI) +9%: Preliminary quarterly sales of $18.5Bโ$19.5B, far above its own $14.5Bโ$15.5B forecast. Gross margin is also coming in higher at 12%โ12.5%. Full results Nov 3.
โข AMD ( $AMD) +3.2%: No company news. Chip stocks bounced on the strong AI demand signals from Super Micro and SpaceX.
โข Illumina ( $ILMN) +6.4%: Launched its new ๐๐ช๐ฐ๐๐ฏ๐ด๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต genetic data platform, a week before its Q3 report.
โข United Airlines ( $UAL) +6.3%: No company news. Airline stocks rallied.
โข ๐ฆ๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ต ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด:
โ Tesla must hold its annual meeting by Dec 6, which Barclays sees as a likely venue for a merger vote
โ Super Micro's full results on Nov 3
โ Telecom customer growth as SpaceX pushes into mobile
โ S&P 500 +0.6%, Nasdaq +1.1%, Dow +0.7%
๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ. ๐๐ฐ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ค๐ฉ.
Whenever you think about $NFLX - think this:
User from Japan/Africa/India etc travel to other countries, want to catch up on a movie/series/show from their local language
Where do they check? Thinking...
X109 - $MU: Micron Technology
Memory chips used to be the most boring corner of tech.
Now they're the bottleneck of the AI boom.
And one company is printing cash from it.
๐ ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฎ ๐ป๐๐๐๐ต๐ฒ๐น๐น:
โข Makes ๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐ and ๐๐๐๐ chips for AI servers, phones, PCs and cars
โข Fiscal Q4 (ended Sept 3) revenue hit $54.2B, up 379% YoY
โข Gross margin reached 87%, up from 46% a year ago
โข Guided next quarter to about $61.5B in revenue
โข Holds $73.5B in cash against $5.2B of debt
โข $35.16B buyback scheduled to start Dec 9
โข Settled the Netlist patent fight for $600M, paid $30M a quarter
โข Opened India's first semiconductor assembly and test plant in Sanand, Gujarat this year
โข ๐ ๐ผ๐ฎ๐: ๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ญ, ๐ฃ๐ถ๐ต ๐ค๐บ๐ค๐ญ๐ช๐ค๐ข๐ญ. One of only three big makers of AI-grade HBM memory, but memory prices swing hard
โข ๐๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐๐ถ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐: SK Hynix, Samsung, CXMT
โข ๐ฆ๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ต ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด:
โ Memory booms have historically ended in oversupply
โ Rivals are racing to add HBM capacity
โ Taiwan union dispute over profit-sharing
โ Any slowdown in AI data center spending hits demand fast
Current Financial Quality Score: 100/100 (Grade A)
Which stock should I break down next? Drop the ticker below.
๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ. ๐๐ฐ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ค๐ฉ.
E14 - Let's decode $TSLA Q3 earnings
Orders are piling up.
The factory can't keep pace.
And Elon might be eyeing a rocket company.
๐๐ถ๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐ช๐ฎ๐น๐น ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐?
โข Sales matched expectations
โข Adjusted profit and cash flow beat them, the cash flow by a lot
โข Reported profit still fell sharply from a year ago
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐น
โข Profit per car improved, even without regulatory credits
โข Cash flow came in positive when analysts expected a big burn
โข FSD subscriptions jumped, and most new cars in North America now come with it
โข Services (charging, insurance, repairs and more) grew fast
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ป'๐
โข Energy storage sales fell, partly because of tariff-related refunds
โข Credit sales to other carmakers mostly dried up
โข Heavy spending on AI and engineering squeezed overall profit
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ด ๐๐๐ถ๐๐
โข A day earlier, Musk said both Tesla's and SpaceX's boards had set up special committees to look at combining the two
โข He also said treating a deal as certain would be "overstating it"
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐
โข No delivery target, just running factories at maximum capacity
โข Battery supply is the main limit on making more cars
โข Spending this year to roughly triple, on robots, AI compute, the Cybercab and a chip fab
๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ ๐ถ๐
โข Up about 3% during the day, then roughly 1.4% more shortly after the report
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ป๐ฒ๐
๐ ๐พ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ
โ Whether battery supply lets deliveries grow
โ How the Cybercab ramps, including the safety regulator's questions due Oct 30
โ Whether the energy business bounces back
โ Any formal news on the SpaceX committees
๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ๐:
๐น Revenue: $28.05B (Est. ~$28.1B) ๐ก flat YoY
๐น Adj. EPS: $0.48 (Est. ~$0.45) ๐ข โ4% YoY
๐น GAAP EPS: $0.22, โ44% YoY
๐น Adj. EBITDA: $3.90B (Est. ~$3.66B) ๐ข โ8% YoY
๐น Free cash flow: $1.53B (Est. ~โ$4.9B) ๐ข
๐น Automotive: $20.56B, โ3% | Energy: $2.88B, โ16% | Services & other: $4.61B, +33%
๐น Gross margin: 19.6% (vs 18.0%) | Auto GM excl. credits: 18.1% (vs 15.4%)
๐น Regulatory credits: $113M, โ73%
๐น Opex: $4.78B, +39% | R&D: $2.76B, +69%
๐น Operating income: $718M, โ56% | Op. margin: 2.6% (vs 5.8%)
๐น GAAP net income: $787M | Adj. net income: $1.70B
๐น Operating cash flow: $6.26B | Capex: $4.73B (Est. ~$7.96B)
๐น Cash & investments: $45.4B
๐น Deliveries: 486,532, โ2% (Est. ~462K) ๐ข | Production: 464,391
๐น Storage deployed: 13.7 GWh, +10% (Est. ~15.9 GWh) ๐ด
๐น Active FSD subscriptions: 1.74M, +67% | FSD attach >75% of new North America deliveries
๐ธ Cybercab robotaxi rides in Austin since Sept 3, ~2M unsupervised robotaxi miles
๐ธ Optimus production started on high-volume lines in Fremont
๐ธ Megafactory Texas started production (50 GWh planned) | Semi in volume production
๐ธ 2026 capex guide: >$25B
๐ธ Bitcoin gain $288M, SpaceX stake loss $142M (unrealized, in GAAP)
๐ธ Peers: BYD ( $BYDDF), Rivian ( $RIVN), Lucid ( $LCID)
๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ. ๐๐ฐ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ค๐ฉ.
E13 - Let's decode $META Q3 earnings
Wall Street braced for a messy quarter.
It got a record instead.
Plus a surprise gift for every shareholder.
And one very expensive check tucked inside.
๐๐ถ๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐ช๐ฎ๐น๐น ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐?
โข Yes on sales, which hit a new record
โข Next quarter's sales forecast also came in above expectations
โข Reported profit was weighed down by a one-time legal settlement
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐น
โข Advertisers paid more for each ad, and Meta showed more of them
โข Its AI tools are making ads work better, and the CEO says that spending is paying off
โข Its first frontier AI models, Muse and Muse Wonder, launched
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ป'๐
โข Spending on data centers was bigger than the cash the business brought in
โข Borrowing climbed to help pay for it
โข Reality Labs (VR and smart glasses) is still losing billions
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ด ๐๐๐ถ๐๐
โข Every shareholder will get a free non-voting Class C share for each share they own
โข It works like a 2-for-1 split, starting in January 2027
โข It gives Meta a new stock to use for raising money, paying staff or buying companies, without changing voting control
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐
โข Strong sales growth into 2027, with heavy investment continuing
โข Reality Labs losses should shrink next year
๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ ๐ถ๐
โข Shares jumped about 4% in the first minutes after the report
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ป๐ฒ๐
๐ ๐พ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ
โ Whether spending keeps outrunning cash flow
โ More teen-safety trials scheduled in the coming months
โ Whether Muse can start making money
โ The 2027 spending plan
๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ๐:
๐น Revenue: $64.60B (Est. ~$63.3B) ๐ข +26% YoY
๐น EPS: $3.83 (Est. ~$3.56) ๐ข +265% YoY
๐น EPS excl. legal charge: $7.40
๐น Operating income: $12.99B, โ37% YoY | excl. charge: $22.88B
๐น Operating margin: 20% (vs 40%) | excl. charge: ~35%
๐น Net income: $9.86B, +264% YoY (last year had a big tax charge)
๐น Ad revenue: $63.06B, +26%
๐น Ad impressions +10% | Avg. price per ad +14%
๐น Daily active people: 3.64B, +3%
๐น Family of Apps: $64.16B revenue, $17.12B operating income
๐น Reality Labs: $443M revenue (โ6%), โ$4.13B operating loss
๐น Capex: $34.91B | Operating cash flow: $32.79B | FCF: โ$2.12B
๐น Cash & securities: $82.45B | Long-term debt: $80.92B (from $58.74B in Dec)
๐น Headcount: 66,775 (โ15%) | Buybacks: none | Dividends: $1.36B
๐ธ Legal charge: $9.89B (โ$3.57/share), part of a settlement of up to ~$18.59B with 52 attorneys general
๐ธ Q4 revenue guide: $73โ76B (Est. ~$73.6B) ๐ข, ~1% FX headwind
๐ธ FY26 total expenses: $175โ179B (now includes the $9.9B charge)
๐ธ FY26 capex: $135โ145B (narrowed from $130โ145B)
๐ธ Reality Labs loss: $18โ19B in 2026, ~$15B in 2027
๐ธ Q4 tax rate: 15โ17%
๐ธ Class C: one non-voting share per A/B share, effective Jan 19, 2027, Nasdaq listing planned
๐ธ Peers: Alphabet ( $GOOGL), Amazon ( $AMZN), Snap ( $SNAP), Reddit ( $RDDT)
๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ. ๐๐ฐ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ค๐ฉ.
X108 - $TSLA: Tesla
Elon wants his rocket company and his car company under one roof.
The stock jumped on the news.
Tonight, the books open.
๐ง๐ฒ๐๐น๐ฎ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฎ ๐ป๐๐๐๐ต๐ฒ๐น๐น:
โข Sells EVs ( ๐๐ฐ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ญ 3, ๐๐ฐ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ญ ๐ ), ๐๐ฆ๐จ๐ข๐ฑ๐ข๐ค๐ฌ batteries, charging and ๐๐๐ software
โข Q2 2026 revenue hit a record $28.2B, up 26%
โข Q2 deliveries rose 25% to 480,126; Q3 came in at 486,532
โข Active FSD subscriptions grew 56% to 1.48M
โข Q2 free cash flow was -$1.1B as capex more than doubled to $5.8B
โข Robotaxi is running in 7 metros, and ๐๐บ๐ฃ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ค๐ข๐ฃ production has started in Texas
โข Fremont's Model S/X lines were retired to build ๐๐ฑ๐ต๐ช๐ฎ๐ถ๐ด robots
โข Tesla and SpaceX boards formed special committees to study a possible merger
โข ๐ ๐ผ๐ฎ๐: ๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ญ, ๐ฃ๐ถ๐ต ๐ฏ๐ข๐ณ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ค๐ข๐ณ๐ด. Scale, Superchargers and real-world driving data still lead
โข ๐๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐๐ถ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐: BYD ( $BYDDY), Waymo ( $GOOGL), Rivian ( $RIVN), Lucid ( $LCID), GM ( $GM), Ford ( $F)
โข ๐ฆ๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ต ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด:
โ Regulatory credit revenue fell 67% YoY in Q2
โ NHTSA scrutiny of driverless Cybercab
โ A SpaceX deal could dilute existing shareholders
โ Chinese EV price cuts and softer consumer demand
Current Financial Quality Score: 70/100 (Grade B)
Which stock should I break down next? Drop the ticker below.
๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ. ๐๐ฐ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ค๐ฉ.
๐ฏ Entry levels (Fib support)
๐ข High quality
$MS $176 ยท Q83 ยท 21% off high
$TTD $11.62 ยท Q82 ยท 77% off high
$TROW $98.04 ยท Q85 ยท 15% off high
$TXN $279 ยท Q89 ยท 15% off high
๐ก Solid
$UNH $417 ยท Q67 ยท 9% off high
$HON $209 ยท Q66 ยท 17% off high
$MCD $239 ยท Q70 ยท 27% off high
๐ด Speculative
$PEG $69.16 ยท Q51 ยท 17% off high
$ROP $393 ยท Q51 ยท 23% off high
$COO $56.81 ยท Q42 ยท 34% off high
Which stock you need a deep dive analysis on, comment below
๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ง๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐ข๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ. ๐๐ฐ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ค๐ฉ.
X107 - $META: Meta Platforms
One company quietly owns your scroll, your group chats and your feed.
Last quarter, almost every dollar it earned went somewhere surprising.
Results drop tonight after the close.
๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฎ ๐ฃ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐บ๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฎ ๐ป๐๐๐๐ต๐ฒ๐น๐น:
โข Runs ๐๐ข๐ค๐ฆ๐ฃ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฌ, ๐๐ฏ๐ด๐ต๐ข๐จ๐ณ๐ข๐ฎ, ๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ต๐ด๐๐ฑ๐ฑ and ๐๐ฉ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ด, free for users and paid for by ads (~98% of revenue)
โข Q2 2026 revenue grew 28% to $60.8B
โข Ad impressions rose 14% and the average price per ad rose 12%
โข EPS fell 13%, hit by a $2.4B legal charge, $1.2B in severance and rising AI costs
โข Reality Labs ( ๐๐ข๐บ-๐๐ข๐ฏ ๐๐ฆ๐ต๐ข glasses, ๐๐ถ๐ฆ๐ด๐ต headsets) lost $4.6B in the quarter
โข 2026 capex guided at $130-145B, mostly for AI data centers
โข India is WhatsApp's biggest market by users
โข Q3 results are out today, Oct 21, after the close
โข ๐ ๐ผ๐ฎ๐: ๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ญ ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ธ๐ช๐ฅ๐ฆ. Billions of daily users and years of ad-targeting data are very hard to copy
โข ๐๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐๐ถ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐: Alphabet ( $GOOGL), Amazon ( $AMZN), Snap ( $SNAP), Pinterest ( $PINS), TikTok
โข ๐ฆ๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ต ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด:
โ AI spending is eating most of the cash the business makes
โ About $17B settlement with 47 states over youth-harm claims (allegations, not rulings), paid over 10 years
โ Ad budgets could tighten if the economy slows
Current Financial Quality Score: 88/100 (Grade A)
Which stock should I break down next? Drop the ticker below.
๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ. ๐๐ฐ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ค๐ฉ.
๐ฏ Entry levels (Fib support)
๐ข High quality
$APH $77.45 ยท Q84 ยท 12% off high
$ZETA $31.81 ยท Q82 ยท 6% off high
$MSFT $510 ยท Q91 ยท 4% off high
๐ก Solid
$HSY $169 ยท Q74 ยท 28% off high
$MRVL $232 ยท Q66 ยท 27% off high
$GEN $22.76 ยท Q72 ยท 24% off high
๐ด Speculative
$WDAY $204 ยท Q56 ยท 18% off high
$NWSA $30.29 ยท Q52 ยท 3% off high
$HRL $20.33 ยท Q45 ยท 21% off high
Which stock you need a deep dive analysis on, comment below
๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ง๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐ข๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ. ๐๐ฐ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ค๐ฉ.
E12 - Let's decode $SPCX Q3 earnings
Rockets used to be the whole story.
Now they're the smallest piece of it.
A data-center landlord wearing a spacesuit.
๐๐ถ๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐ช๐ฎ๐น๐น ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐?
โข Yes, by a wide margin on sales, earnings per share and EBITDA
โข The one soft spot: Starlink signed up fewer homes than analysts hoped
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐น
โข Renting computing power to AI labs (including Anthropic and Google) took off, and that unit is now the largest part of the company
โข Starlink nearly doubled its home subscribers in a year
โข Sales almost doubled from the previous quarter
โข The AI unit made an operating profit, after a big loss a year ago
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ป'๐
โข The launch business barely grew and slipped to a small operating loss
โข Starlink subscriber growth came in below forecasts
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ด ๐๐๐ถ๐๐
โข It poured more money into data centers and hardware than it brought in from customers
โข A huge cash pile from the June IPO is funding that build-out
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐
โข No formal forecast
โข Targets: a $100B+ yearly revenue pace by December and 2+ GW of compute by year-end
๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ ๐ถ๐
โข Shares rose roughly 1.5% to 2.6% in early after-hours trading
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ป๐ฒ๐
๐ ๐พ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ
โ Starship Flight 15
โ Whether the $100B revenue pace target is hit
โ How quickly the build-out spending turns into revenue
โ Any new borrowing or share sales to fund growth
๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ๐:
๐น Revenue: $14.58B (Est. ~$12.7B) ๐ข +161% YoY
๐น EPS: $0.35 (Est. ~$0.15) ๐ข vs โ$0.36 last year
๐น Adj. EBITDA: $8.81B (Est. ~$6.59B) ๐ข +306% YoY
๐น Net income: $4.40B vs โ$1.05B last year
๐น Operating income: $2.79B vs โ$273M last year
๐น Starlink home subs: 13.6M (Est. ~14.3M) ๐ด +89% YoY
๐น Capex: $19.59B (Est. ~$19.6B) ๐ก, of which AI: $16.44B
๐น SI (AI): $7.56B, +830% | op. income $431M
๐น Connectivity (Starlink): $5.25B, +69% | op. income $2.37B
๐น Space: $1.77B, +6% | op. loss $7M
๐น Compute: 1.7 GW (from 0.6 GW a year ago)
๐ธ Cash & marketable securities: ~$89.9B
๐ธ Cursor deal closed Aug 14 (~$60B implied value): $608M revenue so far, $1.2B stock-pay charge
๐ธ Starship Flight 14 = first revenue-generating flight (26 V3 Starlink satellites)
๐ธ Grok Bot launched; Starbase Louisiana (~$100B) spaceport planned
๐ธ Peers: Tesla ( $TSLA), Rocket Lab ( $RKLB), AST SpaceMobile ( $ASTS)
๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ. ๐๐ฐ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ค๐ฉ.
E11 - Let's decode $ISRG Q3 earnings
The operating room keeps getting busier.
One courtroom bill just got paid.
Strong quarter, but the stock is heading the other way.
๐๐ถ๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐ช๐ฎ๐น๐น ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐?
โข Yes. Adjusted profit and sales both came in well above forecasts
โข Reported profit fell, but almost all of that was one legal payment
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐น
โข Hospitals bought a lot more robots, led by the new da Vinci 5
โข Surgeries using its systems grew in the mid-teens
โข Ion, its lung biopsy robot, is growing fastest
โข Instruments, which every surgery uses up, keep bringing in steady sales
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ป'๐
โข A big antitrust settlement took a large bite out of reported profit
โข Tariffs are still trimming margins
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ด ๐๐๐ถ๐๐
โข Intuitive agreed to pay $450M to settle a long-running antitrust class action
โข It admits no wrongdoing, and the deal still needs a judge's sign-off
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐
โข Full-year procedure growth kept at 14โ15%, now expected near the middle of that range
โข Margin and spending outlook unchanged
๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ ๐ถ๐
โข Closed up about 1% before the report, then dropped roughly 7% after hours
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ป๐ฒ๐
๐ ๐พ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ
โ Court approval of the settlement
โ Whether procedure growth holds in the mid-teens
โ Hospital spending budgets for 2027
โ Tariff costs
๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ๐:
๐น Revenue: $3.05B (Est. ~$2.91B) ๐ข +22% YoY
๐น Adj. EPS: $3.00 (Est. ~$2.64) ๐ข +25% YoY
๐น GAAP EPS: $1.49 (vs $1.95 last year) ๐ด
๐น Adj. gross margin: 69.9% | GAAP: 68.4%
๐น Adj. operating income: $1.27B (41.6% margin) | GAAP: $593M
๐น Instruments & accessories: $1.80B, +18%
๐น Systems: $769M, +30%
๐น Services: $482M, +22%
๐น Procedures: +15% (da Vinci +14%, Ion +31%)
๐น da Vinci placements: 546 (vs 427), of which da Vinci 5: 315 (vs 240)
๐น Ion placements: 56 (vs 50)
๐น Installed base: 12,094 da Vinci (+12%), 1,152 Ion (+21%)
๐ธ $450M pre-tax settlement = $347M after tax, $0.99/share
๐ธ $22M tariff refund helped ($0.06/share)
๐ธ 2026 guide: da Vinci procedures +14โ15% ๐ก (held), adj. gross margin 68.7โ69.3% (incl. ~0.9 pt tariff hit), adj. opex growth 11โ13%
๐ธ Buybacks: $2.94B (7.8M shares)
๐ธ Cash & investments: $6.80B
๐ธ Peers: Medtronic ( $MDT), Stryker ( $SYK), Johnson & Johnson ( $JNJ)
๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ. ๐๐ฐ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ค๐ฉ.
E10 - Let's decode $NFLX Q3 earnings
Netflix kept nearly 35 cents of every dollar as operating profit last quarter.
Then it told investors the next few months will look a bit softer.
Wall Street cared more about the second part.
๐๐ถ๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐ช๐ฎ๐น๐น ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐?
โข Earnings per share beat estimates
โข Revenue landed right on target
โข But the forecast for next quarter came in below expectations
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐น
โข Profit up 44% from a year ago
โข Every region grew by double digits, led by Latin America
โข Record quarter for new paying members in India
โข Bought back $4.8B of stock, its largest quarter ever
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ป'๐
โข Ad revenue is growing slower than Netflix planned
โข Viewing hours aren't growing much, and Netflix admitted investors are worried
โข The full-year cash target was trimmed
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ด ๐๐๐ถ๐๐
โข Netflix cut its 2026 ad revenue goal from about $3B to about $2.7B
โข Some ad features are rolling out slower than expected
โข Recent job cuts will also weigh on Q4 margins
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐
โข Full-year revenue of about $51.1B and a 31.5% operating margin
โข Ad tier launching in 15 more countries in 2027
โข A big live lineup: three NFL games, including Thanksgiving Eve with a U2 halftime show, plus Fury vs. Joshua
๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ ๐ถ๐
โข Shares dropped about 5% in the first minutes after the report
โข Investors focused on the softer outlook, not the strong quarter
โข Early after-hours moves can shift once the interview airs
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ป๐ฒ๐
๐ ๐พ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ
โ Do viewing hours start growing again?
โ Can the ad business get back on its original pace?
โ Do live sports bring in new members?
๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ๐:
Q3 2026:
๐น Revenue: $12.87B (Est. $12.87B) ๐ก; +12% YoY
๐น EPS: $0.87 (Est. $0.82) ๐ข; +49% YoY
๐น Operating Income: $4.46B (Est. $4.26B) ๐ข; +37% YoY
๐น Operating Margin: 34.6%; +640 bps YoY
๐น Net Income: $3.66B (Est. $3.45B) ๐ข; +44% YoY
Q4 Guide:
๐น Revenue: $13.44B (Est. $13.52B) ๐ด
๐น EPS: $0.67 (Est. $0.73) ๐ด
๐น Operating Income: $3.50B (Est. $3.73B) ๐ด
๐น Operating Margin: 26.0% (incl. ~120 bps from headcount reductions)
FY26 Guide:
๐น Revenue: $51.1B (Est. $51.23B) ๐ด
๐น Operating Margin: 31.5%
๐น Ad Revenue: ~$2.7B (was ~$3B)
๐น Free Cash Flow: ~$12.0B (was ~$12.5B; real estate deal closing in Q4)
Revenue by Region:
๐น US & Canada: $5.63B; +11% YoY
๐น EMEA: $4.11B; +11% YoY
๐น Latin America: $1.60B; +17% YoY
๐น Asia-Pacific: $1.54B; +12% YoY
Cash & Capital:
๐น Free Cash Flow: $2.88B (Est. $3.18B) ๐ด; vs $2.66B LY
๐น Operating Cash Flow: $3.16B; vs $2.83B LY
๐น Share Repurchases: $4.8B (63.9M shares, record quarter)
๐น Remaining Authorization: $22.3B
๐น Gross Debt: $15.3B; Cash: $8.2B
Key Updates:
๐ธ Ad tier expanding to 15 new countries in 2027, starting in March
๐ธ TF1 partnership in France launched this summer
๐ธ New Disney licensing deal, including all five Ice Age films
๐ธ $1B bond deal in Q3 to fund a $1B maturity in Q4
Streaming rivals to compare: Disney ( $DIS), Amazon ( $AMZN), Warner Bros. Discovery ( $WBD), Comcast ( $CMCSA)
๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ. ๐๐ฐ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ค๐ฉ.
X106 - $V: Visa
Visa just hit an all-time high.
China opened the door a crack. The DOJ is still knocking on the other one.
Here's the full picture before next week's earnings ๐
๐ฉ๐ถ๐๐ฎ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฎ ๐ป๐๐๐๐ต๐ฒ๐น๐น:
โข Runs the world's largest card network; banks issue the cards, Visa routes every swipe
โข Fiscal Q3 net revenue: $11.6B, up 14%; adjusted EPS $3.32, up 11%
โข $4 trillion+ in payments volume per quarter; cross-border volume up 12%
โข Bought back $4.9B of stock in one quarter
โข China's central bank approved Visa to prepare a domestic card-clearing business
โข ๐๐ช๐ด๐ข ๐๐ช๐ณ๐ฆ๐ค๐ต stablecoin payouts moved from pilot to commercial use
โข ๐ ๐ผ๐ฎ๐: Billions of cards and millions of stores feed each other. ๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ญ: ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ธ๐ช๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ด๐ต ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ข๐ต๐ด ๐ข๐ฏ๐บ๐ธ๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฆ
โข ๐๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐๐ถ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐: Mastercard ( $MA), American Express ( $AXP), Capital One ( $COF), China UnionPay (state-owned)
โข ๐ฆ๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ต ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด:
โ Fiscal Q4 results Oct 27, after the close
โ DOJ debit lawsuit (allegations, not rulings)
โ Swipe-fee caps spreading worldwide
โ Consumer spending if the economy slows
Current Financial Quality Score: 94/100 (Grade A)
Estimated fair value: $404.42
Which stock should I break down next? Drop the ticker below.
๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ. ๐๐ฐ ๐บ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ณ ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ฏ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ค๐ฉ.
