Big news for primary care

mathematicians and muse spark collaborated to solve 6 open problems in math: 1. The Strict Threshold for Gaussian Ellipsoid Fitting 2. Finite-Time Blow-Up of Radial Negative-Energy Solutions for the Mass-Critical Biharmonic Nonlinear Schrödinger Equation 3. Semiabelian Groups Need Not Be Monomial 4. Tightness of the Cycle-Based Relaxation for Completed Length-Three Alpha-Cycles 5. String Two-Point Function = Height Function on a Curve 6. On Solvable Evolution Algebras and a Conjecture by García-Martínez and Pérez-Rodríguez

🚨 side project alert 🚨 Announcing Muse Gadgets, an open source ESP32 firmware and Linux sdk so that you can make hardware devices that work with Muse. Grab an API token from gadgets.muse.ai and point your favorite coding agent at the github repo to build your own peripherals for Muse.

Casey Handmer on why Starlink and Starmind are so valuable: "If you run the math: What is the revenue per watt of transmitted microwave power for Starlink? It's a billion times higher than space-based solar power. SpaceX is making money hand over fist with Starlink. So you take that model and say, we make lots of money transmitting data from your content delivery service like Netflix, but instead let's transmit tokens of some hyper intelligent model. Once you've got the hardware flying, what is the comparative value between your average Starlink bit versus your average Starmind bit? It's probably at least 1,000 times more valuable. It's not even in the same category. It will be interesting to see if economic demand for intelligence in the form of AI tokens can saturate. I suspect not."

Dario’s press training team needs to be fired, episode 793

Everybody "neurodivergent" until a real stone cold autist pulls up

12% of global cancer attributable to infectious disease in this study. The number is likely a significant undercount because it only includes a few pathogens where the relationship has been established. It should be a central objective of the coming century to eradicate as many pathogens as possible. thelancet.com/journals/lanon…

I just signed an executive order permanently declaring Artificial Intelligence “Artificial Intelligence” in California. You’re welcome, America.

Hugely frustrating fact about cancer: The best centers (Sloan Kettering, Stanford, UCSF, etc) typically run patients through in-house genomic diagnostics that are incredibly limited (small gene panel; no RNAseq). So many of our cases are folks who've had MSK-IMPACT or Stanford STAMP and UCSF 500 that missed obvious things. They're well behind Caris and Tempus, and miles behind Valius. They're at the cutting edge of everything else; very sad that they're so behind here.

Hard choices, easy life. Easy choices, hard life.

When you look back, you’ll wish you’d just done the long-term version of everything.

I recently filmed a three-hour podcast with Jake Glanville, the CEO of @centivax, and the episode should come out soon. But he said so many surprising things that I had to investigate afterward. At one point, he argued that we could eradicate the flu entirely. Like, if we had a vaccine that was broadly protective against many different strains and 90–95 percent effective at preventing infection, say, then we could plausibly vaccinate enough people that flu stops circulating in humans. You’d also have to vaccinate animals, including pigs and birds, which might make this much harder. But Glanville said he thinks this is feasible partly because, during COVID, we eliminated an entire lineage of influenza. Very few people seem to know about this. I certainly didn’t. There was a lineage called B/Yamagata that had been circulating since the 1970s. As recently as 2018, it accounted for about 90 percent of influenza B infections that we've sampled. But the last confirmed case of a Yamagata infection was in Arizona in March 2020. We haven’t seen any naturally circulating Yamagata since, and it's been six years! There are a few ideas about how this might have happened. 1. Yamagata has no known permanent animal reservoir to replenish it (it just spreads between humans) so the normal COVID precautions may have stopped its normal transmission. 2. It was already in decline after a big 2017–2018 epidemic, when it infected lots of people and caused them to develop antibodies. And since the Yamagata line mutates relatively slowly, it needs a longer time to "escape" those antibodies already present in the human population. We can’t say for sure that it’s gone, but recent flu vaccines have *not* included this line. And it seems to suggest that population immunity + lower mutation (perhaps via immunization of animal reservoirs) really could plausibly be used to eradicate influenzas. This is obviously speculative, in part, but I thought interesting enough to share.

Kruk and Kuip open up their final Giants broadcast together 🥲

Chamath explains the political calculus behind Obama’s anti AI speech “This is a very important moment for a very simple reason, which is that the world is about to endow 3-6 companies with about $10 trillion of wealth.” “And what Obama knows very well is that most of those companies are overwhelmingly left leaning. And what he also knows is that there is a huge portion of that money that will then get put into philanthropic and charitable causes that then he and the people around him will be beneficiaries of." “That is the truth. We already know this because we know that some of these frontier corporations actually ask you to sign up DAFTs and have a portion of your stock that you're willing to pledge. So this money is going to go to things other than consumption or savings. It's going to go into PACs, it's going to go into political movements, and they stand to disproportionately benefit." “So this has nothing to do with prosperity. This is a very simple political calculus. If you freeze frame the economy the way it is today, a handful of organizations that will disproportionately be able to affect the Democrats will win, they will capture the lion's share of the economic gains. And then they will help the Democrats win power. That's all this is."

Some data we recently assembled on entrepreneurship/compute in Europe: eudata.vercel.app. We hope that one of the useful roles that Stripe can play is in collecting and publishing empirical data pertaining to entrepreneurship and industry in Europe. There's growing appetite to get Europe on a better footing, and cross-sectional comparisons can often shine light on where opportunities lie. If you're interested in this kind of thing, we publish more at stripeeconomics.substack.com.

"Don't think for a second that because you are an 'alarmist' that you are doing a social good." Amen.

As with biological design, AI can also accelerate biological discovery. In new work led by @_David_Li and @garykbrixi with @mfgrp, we show how genome language models enable systematic discovery of genetic elements, revealing a new class of reverse-transcriptase mechanisms.

This is a topic that has been weighing heavily on my mind for over five years. I hope we can find a way for eveyone to move forward with “inquiry” as the true-north. For the best interest of the globe.

timeline. ticker. trade.

U.S. labor productivity, 2013–2026: > Unremarkable growth for most of the 2010s > Breaks sharply higher starting 2020 > Now running 2.2% above where the old trend said we'd be The last time this happened was 1995–2004, when the internet added close to 3% a year for a full decade. Looks like we're a few years into the sequel.