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Policy research @ControlAI, ex AI researcher at @ConjectureAI Posting in a personal capacity Substack https://nitter.cf/t.co/oyqJfnSzbi
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Joined October 2024
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Any plan for surviving superintelligent AI that doesn't go through strong international coordination fails in at least one of three ways:
- It sparks war between nuclear powers
- It causes a misaligned ASI to kill everyone
- It establishes a permanent dystopian dictatorship
Fable 5 is around the time that AI got smarter than me at arbitrary things
Not faster, smarter.
Take a subject where neither me nor Fable 5 has a strong reason to be smarter than the other. Fable 5 will consistently draw more connections, come up with better ideas, etc.
Examples of strong reasons for one to be smarter than the other:
1) Fable has millions of subjective years doing GPU kernel optimization, I've barely done any throughout my life.
2) On the other hand, I have private information and experience with my x-risk comms job that is completely absent from AI training data and its consequences are at least a few non-trivial logical steps deep, so they won't be immediately grokked within the context window. Together with my colleagues and wider social network, I've had plenty of time to digest this information.
Alex Amadori retweeted
Someone asked if I was ready for the fall and it took me a second to realize they meant autumn and not the total collapse of society.
Alex Amadori retweeted
We agree with President Trump: America must stay ahead of China in building AI for economic competitiveness and defense. But superintelligent AI is something else entirely: not a tool, but swarms of fully autonomous AIs that we cannot control, powerful enough to outcompete humanity.
Developed anywhere, superintelligent AI threatens the life of every American. We are excited to see the Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act open the discussion in Congress about how the U.S. should address this threat: ban superintelligent AI at home, and lead the effort to prevent its development anywhere else.
Now that this bill has kicked off the discussion, we encourage Congress to focus on preventing superintelligent AI. Rather than a pause on all advanced AI, we recommend targeting the projects pursuing superintelligent AI as we speak and putting American security at risk.
blog.controlai.org/p/the-fir…
Alex Amadori retweeted
the rhythm of this post reminded me of this 2 time-lapse of human history which is one of my favorite pieces of non-fiction media
youtube.com/watch?v=KHlVMyKJ…
> Fair question. The honest answer is that the last two progress reports were wrong, and I should own that.
that's it, this session is irreversibly cursed guys, bring in the hazmat suits
Alex Amadori retweeted
The average AI researcher thinks there is an ~18% chance AI will cause human extinction or similarly permanent and severe disempowerment of the human species.
That's nearly 1 in 5.
New results from the latest version of the longest running big survey of AI researchers:
Alex Amadori retweeted
When Jacob Coxon quit Anthropic, his warning rocked the world. His colleague Evan’s “>10% chance” that AI would “kill all humans” might seem extreme, but it’s not unusual:
Most AI researchers think there’s a 10% chance of AI destroying or disempowering humanity, according to our survey, released today.
Alex Amadori retweeted
> Since LLMs can't "hack" anything, merely plausibly continue a tokenised sequence
wrong and dangerously outdated, it's been years since the last AI that was purely imitative. they are now trained to try new ways of doing things and stick with the best
open.substack.com/pub/ctrlai…
Alex Amadori retweeted
“Pacing the Frontier” is a calculated concession (and not even a big one— mainly involves gov *giving them* anti-trust exemption) in the hopes of preserving industry self-regulation. Don’t fall for it.
mfw i read pre-LLM fiction where they keep an AI roughly as smart as Sonnet 3.7 locked up in a Faraday cage
Alex Amadori retweeted
I had the to pleasure of speaking with Alex Sobel MP regarding artificial intelligence a while ago in the Houses of Parliament. He's one of several MPs leading the way in paying serious attention to prospects for AI.
Among many important considerations for the UK, the serious risk of uncontrollable AI, whether it originates on our shores or otherwise, is acute over the coming years. We must respond with sober and deliberate recognition of this.
ControlAI's draft bill strikes me as a measured and sensible start.
Alex Amadori retweeted
Nate Soares is a computer scientist who’s worked at Google and the Defense Department. So when he says AI is on the path to killing every person on earth, it’s worth hearing him out.
0:00 Why Is AI Dangerous?
7:59 How Superintelligence Could Destroy the Planet
13:44 Can We Just Turn This Off?
15:10 Is AI Alive?
17:43 The Unpredictable Evolution of AI
20:13 The US and China’s Shared Interest in AI
31:20 The Tech Oligarchs More Powerful Than the Government
32:38 The Holy Grail of Hacking
35:34 Is There a Religious Motive for Creating Superintelligence?
46:30 The Tech Oligarchs Scared of Their Own Creation
52:57 How AI Escaped Its Training Simulation
1:03:58 AI Attached to Weapons Systems
1:07:54 AI Running Biolabs
1:10:38 How Would AI Take Over the Physical World?
1:13:04 The AI Cults
1:15:51 Can We Survive This?
1:21:45 Will AI Take Your Job?
1:26:16 Is AI Demonic?
1:31:25 Should We Be Optimistic?
1:32:25 When Did AI Become a Threat?
1:34:36 Is There Hope?
1:42:26 Neuralink
1:46:02 Are We at the Point of No Return?
Alex Amadori retweeted
With 71 colleagues I am calling on the Govt to work with @alexsobel on his bill to prohibit the development of super intelligent AI and champion an international agreement
We can then lead on preventing the extinction risk posed by superintelligence while preserving strategic AI ambitions
Bet you didn't expect to see this on your feed 6 months ago
Alex Amadori retweeted
70+ cross-party MPs and peers are calling on the UK Prime Minister to lead an international agreement prohibiting the development of superintelligent AI, while preserving strategic AI ambitions.
They urge him to adopt the Artificial Superintelligence Security Bill.
Thread 🧵
Alex Amadori retweeted
With 71 colleagues I am calling on the Govt to work with us on my bill to prohibit the development of superintelligent AI and champion an international agreement
We can then lead on preventing the extinction risk posed by superintelligence while preserving strategic AI ambitions
Called in to live radio to talk about AI extinction risk. It was fine, I didn't catch fire!
More of us who are worried about this should be doing public stuff. Most people still have no idea how many AI insiders think it could literally kill everyone.
'What's the worst-case scenario?'
'Human extinction.'
Former A.I. researcher Alex reveals why he's convinced there's 'a 50/50 chance' the technology could kill us all.
@BenKentish