We price resolution risk to make prediction markets bankable
Joined September 2026
- Tweets6
- Following5
- Followers14
- Likes4
Pinned Tweet
10bips measures resolution risk on Polymarket: how often a proposed outcome is disputed, what a dispute does to price and payout, and how long payment waits. Live oracle activity, the method and its limits: 10bips.com Forecasts start 19 Oct, frozen daily.
We are starting sooo... Stay tuned!
We're back and ready to announce the new date for our first-ever PredictTime PitchDay
Our first attempt didn't go as planned due to technical issues, but we've been working to fix what went wrong. We're determined to deliver the show we originally envisioned
On October 19 at 4:00 PM UTC, the first 4 projects will take the stage at our first PitchDay to present what they're building, face questions from the judges, and compete for a place in the SuperFinal
@tenbips
a research lab tackling one of the most overlooked risks in prediction markets: settlement risk. 10bips is building a way to quantify how likely a market is to settle cleanly before it actually resolves
@Polydict_trade
an AI layer for prediction markets and perps. Polydict already brings trading to web, Telegram, and Farcaster, and is building infrastructure that will allow AI agents to read markets, analyze them, and trade securely on behalf of users
@preddytrade
a prediction market trading interface built around fast discovery and execution. The platform already covers multiple market categories, combos, trader tools, and leveraged Polymarket trading
@bagel_win
a mobile-first prediction market app designed to make predicting simpler, more social, and more engaging. Users can explore and trade markets across sports, esports, crypto, and trending events directly from mobile
October 19, 4:00 PM UTC
Live on X / YouTube / LinkedIn
Our first public pitch, at Build Station Warsaw Demo Day.
An event contract pays only once someone decides what happened. That decision can be disputed, reversed or paid late. 10bips measures that risk, proposal by proposal.
Three numbers 10bips publishes. P(dispute): the chance a proposal is disputed before its window closes. Resolution risk: the expected loss to a holder of the proposed outcome, in bps. Haircut: what a lender should discount a position by before it settles.