@tedstone3
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D A L L A S, T X - SMU
Joined February 2009
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TED STONE III retweeted
80% of the people who can afford to buy a home… already own one.
Think about that.
The pool of qualified buyers is drying up fast.
Meanwhile:
• Prices remain elevated
• Rates remain high
• Insurance is surging
• Taxes are rising
So the question nobody wants to ask is:
Who exactly are we selling to next?
This is why transaction volume is collapsing.
This is why builders are panicking.
This is why price cuts are accelerating.
At some point… the market runs out of greater fools.
And price has to meet affordability.
That’s when the real reset begins.
TED STONE III retweeted
Dallas County is going to have more Opportunity Zone census tracts than 19 states
Oregon will only have 58 OZ census tracts in the whole state
Dallas County has 60
Excited to see the economic benefit of this program to Dallas over the next decade
TED STONE III retweeted
🦔Over 13,500 unsold companies are stuck in private equity portfolios right now. PE firms buy companies with borrowed money, load the debt onto the company, and plan to sell in a few years. That model needs low rates and willing buyers. It has neither.
PE-backed companies accounted for the majority of large corporate bankruptcies in 2025 and first half of 2026. Saks, Eddie Bauer, JoAnn, and hospital chain Steward Health Care all went down under PE ownership. Bloomberg reported this week that dealmakers are now leaving major funds because carried interest payouts have dried up.
My Take
The PE model worked for a decade because rates were near zero and you could flip anything. That era is over and these firms are trapped. They can't sell because no buyer will pay what they need to turn a profit, and they can't hold much longer because the companies are drowning in debt at 5% rates that the PE firm itself doesn't pay. The company pays it. Your hospital pays it. Your dentist pays it. JoAnn paid it until it couldn't.
Thirteen million Americans work for PE-owned companies. When Steward Health Care went down, entire communities lost their only hospital. The PE firm walked away and raised another fund. I think this is going to be one of the biggest stories of 2027. The exit drought ends when rates come down. The Fed just hiked. These companies are stuck with debt they took on at prices that assumed money would stay cheap forever, and every month they sit unsold the finance numbers get worse. The firms that bought them will survive. The companies and the people who work there won't all be that lucky.
Hedgie🤗
TED STONE III retweeted
BREAKING: The average sales price for a new single-family home fell -$47,700 MoM in August, or -9.1%, to $478,700, the largest monthly drop on record.
This is the lowest level since August 2024 and the 2nd-lowest level since September 2021.
The decline was driven by a shift toward lower-priced homes, as builders cut prices and offered incentives to clear inventory.
This comes as sales of homes under $300,000 rose to 22% of total sales last month from 19%, while sales of homes priced at $1 million+ fell to 4% from 6%.
As a result, total new home sales jumped +6.4% MoM, to 684,000, their highest since December 2025.
Meanwhile, median sales price fell -$24,200 YoY, or -5.8%, to $393,700, the 2nd-lowest reading since July 2021.
US home prices are falling to keep sales alive.
TED STONE III retweeted
U.S. real estate investment has collapsed by 50% over the last four years.
The reason? It's now more profitable to sit on your couch and buy a 10-year government bond than to buy an investment property.
10-year yields are now 5.1%.
While the single-family cap rate for rentals is 4.8%.
For the first time in nearly two decades, buying real estate for cash flow has a negative opportunity cost v buying government bonds.
And as a result, the number of people buying investment properties has plummeted by 50% over the last four years.
This is having a massive price impact on certain markets. Track Cap Rates for your area at reventure.app/map.
Texas Gov. Abbott orders data center permit halt weeks after issuing moratorium cnbc.com/2026/09/21/texas-go…
TED STONE III retweeted
Houston office vacancy sits at 25%, yet a single suburban tower just locked down six corporate headquarters in one sweep to hit 90% occupancy.
realtynewsreport.com/six-hea…
TED STONE III retweeted
Professor Michael Webber of the University of Texas says humans may always have an insatiable demand for intelligence - producing demand for the data centers that train AI models. The promise of advanced intelligence A.I. could eventually lead to medical breakthroughs. cbsn.ws/4h3yXld
TED STONE III retweeted
BREAKING: The market now sees a new high 71% chance of the Fed hiking interest rates by October.
There is also now a 62% chance of a rate hike at next week's meeting.
Markets think Fed Chair Warsh's first rate move is a HIKE.
Talk about a turn of events.
🤝 Paid partnership
TED STONE III retweeted
Pending Home Sales Drop to 2nd Lowest on Record, Plunge to Record Low in the West, to Near-Record Low in the South.
Stuck in the mud at the bottom for a 4th year, after the 2020-2022 home-price explosion
wolfstreet.com/2026/08/18/pe…
CrowdStrike CEO: AI exposes dangerous cyber gaps that legacy tools can’t handle cnbc.com/2026/08/27/crowdstr…
TED STONE III retweeted
BREAKING: Real disposable income growth has now trailed real consumer spending growth for 24 consecutive months, the longest streak in data going back to at least the 1960s.
This means Americans have been spending more than their inflation-adjusted incomes have grown for 2 consecutive years.
As a result, Americans have increasingly relied on savings and debt to fund the gap.
By comparison, the previous longest streak was ~23 months, set in the late 1970s.
Meanwhile, the US personal savings rate has fallen -1.7 percentage points since January, to just 2.7%, its 4th-lowest reading since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Furthermore, US credit card debt surged by $21 billion in Q2 2026, to $1.26 trillion, the 2nd-highest level on record.
Consumers are using debt to "fight" inflation.
TED STONE III retweeted
US homebuyers are quitting.
There were an estimated +51.3% more home sellers than buyers in July, the 2nd highest level on record.
This percentage has doubled over the last 2 years.
By comparison, an all-time high of +51.8% was recorded in December 2025.
This comes as the number of active homebuyers fell -2.5% MoM, to 966,752, the lowest on record.
At the same time, the number of sellers declined -0.3% MoM to ~1,462,921, the lowest reading in a year, but the decline was far smaller than the drop in buyers.
As a result, ~80% of major US metros are now buyer's markets, led by Miami, where sellers outnumber buyers by +154%.
Further downward pressure on home prices is likely coming.
TED STONE III retweeted
BREAKING: Total US debt officially hits $40 trillion for the first time in history.
That's $119,699 in US debt for every American.
This puts the total US debt balance up +$17 trillion since 2020 and +$30 trillion since 2008.
We are on an unsustainable fiscal path.
It's official.
On July 31st, we called for US government intervention as long-term borrowing costs hit 2008 levels.
Today, it happened. The US Treasury is DOUBLING buybacks to $4 billion per operation for "liquidity support."
What comes next? Let us explain.
(a thread)
TED STONE III retweeted
21 DAYS UNTIL @SMUFB
Preston Stone left Temple’s defense guessing on this 21-yard rushing TD (2023) 😮💨🏈
TED STONE III retweeted
Dallas now has higher share of finance sector jobs than NYC, data shows dallasnews.com/business/jobs…
TED STONE III retweeted
The U.S. is about to auction $25 billion of 30-year Treasuries at a projected yield of 5.23%-
Which is the government’s highest 30-year borrowing cost since 2001.
This isn’t just a bond-market story:
• Public-debt interest has reached $1.17 trillion this fiscal year
• Treasury debt outstanding has doubled since 2018 to roughly $31 trillion
• Traditional buyers are retreating
• Price-sensitive investors are demanding higher yields
• Elevated Treasury rates are pushing borrowing costs higher across the economy
The Treasury may respond by issuing fewer long-term bonds and relying more heavily on short-term debt.
That will reduce today’s interest expense, but it creates even greater refinancing risk tomorrow.
The bond market is sending Washington the obvious message we all know to be true:
You cannot solve a structural deficit by simply changing which maturities you issue.
TED STONE III retweeted
BREAKING: President Trump is weighing a cut to capital gains taxes ahead of midterm elections, per Bloomberg.
There has not been a major cut to capital gains tax rates in the US since 2003.
This would have massive implications if implemented.
TED STONE III retweeted
One of the biggest long-term headwinds for the U.S. housing market is demographics.
Specifically, the collapse in births and rise in deaths.
America's Birth/Death Ratio has fallen from 1.77x in 2007 to just 1.16x today.
That's a 34% decline in organic population growth over the last 18 years.
Why does that matter?
It means fewer first-time homebuyers, fewer growing families looking to upgrade, and more estate sales adding supply.
Reventure estimates the Birth/Death Ratio will fall below 1.0 by 2034, meaning the U.S. would lose population organically for the first time in its history.
Some states are already there.
That points to a completely different housing market over the next decade, lower demand, higher supply, and increasing downward pressure on home prices.
You can now track the Birth/Death Ratio for every county on Reventure to see which markets are best positioned, and which ones face the biggest demographic headwinds: reventure.app/mobile
Elon Musk just named AI’s next crisis. It’s not a shortage. It’s a surplus nobody can switch on.
Musk: “By the end of this year, chip production will outpace the ability to turn chips on.”
For three years the world was starved for silicon. Every lab, every government, every company racing to secure the chips that decide who wins the AI era.
That bottleneck is ending. A harder one is replacing it.
Musk: “The chips are going to be piling up and not be able to be turned on.”
Billions of dollars in the most advanced AI hardware ever built. Sitting dark.
Not because the chips don’t work. Because there isn’t enough electricity to run them.
You can’t print a power plant the way you print a chip.
The fabs scaled. The grid didn’t. Now the hardware everyone fought over is hitting a wall capital can’t buy its way through.
Compute becomes abundant. Electricity becomes the most valuable commodity on earth.
Physics doesn’t care about your chip architecture if your data center can’t pull the megawatts.
Every mind that has ever existed was limited by what it could eat. Ours ran on grain. This one runs on the grid.
That has never been solved by thinking. Only by building.
The war isn’t about who can print the most silicon. It’s about who can plug it in.
Whoever solves energy first doesn’t just win. They own the rails everyone else has to rent.
The losers stack chips in warehouses, waiting for power that never arrives.
We built a trillion dollar engine and forgot the fuel.