20+ years in the markets. Investing, trading, income generation. My thoughts, not financial advice.

Joined June 2008
Wall Street rates it a Reduce. The options desk disagrees — loudly: 31,132 $WU calls traded Monday, 423% above normal. Down ~42% from its $10.35 high, paying a 15%+ dividend yield, with its $500M Intermex merger stuck in regulatory review. Who is betting on the breakout?
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The FDA just widened $IBRX's market: ANKTIVA's label now covers papillary-only bladder tumors too — on top of a 71% complete response rate in its pivotal trial. Call buyers showed up: 26,656 contracts, 44% above normal volume. What are they expecting from the launch?
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This morning the FDA cleared $UTHR to start its SUMMIT phase-2 trial of treprostinil SMI in PH-COPD — a patient pool its CEO calls 5–10x all of its current diseases combined. Friday the tape leaned in early: 12,089 calls, 220% above normal. How high is 'several times larger'?
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BULL vs BEAR: $META — Bull: Q2 ad revenue up 28% to $60.8B, Muse hit 2.8M installs in 12 days, Truist just raised its target to $1000. But: Q2 EPS missed, the capex guide is $130–145B, and FCF dropped to $784M. Wednesday's earnings settle it. Pick a side.
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SpaceX is pushing into wireless with an $8B spectrum buy — Wednesday before the open, $T answers first. Bernstein cut AT&T to Market Perform on the satellite threat, even after its own ~$23B EchoStar spectrum haul. Street: $0.61 on $31.68B revenue. Can the incumbent outspend it?
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WTI just crossed $101 a barrel — and nobody talks about $GM's 42% share of the U.S. full-size pickup market. Tuesday before the open: four straight beats, $3.52/share consensus, U.S. sales -5.5%. Do the trucks carry another quarter?
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Thursday morning: $BX reports after beating the Street 4 quarters straight. This one's different — estimates were cut to $1.31 (-13.8% y/y) on weak exits, while AUM is set to hit $1.38T. Does the beat streak survive a dead deal market?
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Next week: Wednesday after the close is the season's densest earnings night — Meta, Tesla, IBM, Lam Research and SAP report within hours. $TXN reports into a chip index that just fell 11.8% in a week. Consensus: $2.42 EPS (+63.5%) on $5.92B. Is the chip selloff overdone?
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The most hyped IPO of the year faces its first real test: $SPCX reports earnings Tuesday at 3:30pm CT, the same day Netflix reports. Growth, margins and Starlink spending finally get numbers. Does the debut-day hype survive its first earnings call?
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BULL vs BEAR: $CRWV — BULL: Cantor reiterated Overweight with a $176 target; $104B backlog and Nvidia backstops unsold capacity. BEAR: Bernstein says Sell ($74) — debt at distress levels, down 25% in its worst week in 11 months. Buy the dip or sell the rip — what's your take?
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Amex reports Friday before the open into a split screen: the Street expects $4.47/share (+8%) on $20.1B revenue and $AXP has beaten 3 of its last 4 quarters — yet the stock has slid 5% in a month and estimates were cut twice this week. Friday settles the argument.
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Four straight earnings beats, averaging a 16.5% surprise — $ISRG reports Tuesday after the close. Consensus expects $2.61 EPS on $2.88B revenue, and the stock is up ~12% in a month on da Vinci 5 demand. Priced for perfection, or beat number five?
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Memory stocks got smoked this week: $WDC fell 16.4% to $333.24 after China's CXMT announced a year-end server-memory launch. Thursday's test: earnings after the close, consensus $4.07/share (+129% y/y) on $4.16B revenue. Another beat, or the first crack in the memory trade?
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FDA said yes a day early: $IRD's phentolamine eye drop just won approval for presbyopia — a non-invasive fix for ~90% of US adults over 45 who need reading glasses. VEGA-2 and VEGA-3 hit every endpoint, triggering a milestone payment from Viatris. Who's on this one?
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Tuesday after the close, all eyes on $NFLX: consensus expects $0.82 EPS on $12.87B revenue with ad revenue set to roughly double toward $3B. Stock is down 7.6% this month, trading ~44% off its 52-week high. Seven beats in eight quarters — does the streak hold?
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BULL vs BEAR: $TSLA — BULL: Barclays says a SpaceX merger could drop before the Dec 6 AGM; the Roadster demo did 0-60 in 0.81s on thrusters. BEAR: JPMorgan stayed Neutral; Gary Black says 3,000 Roadsters a year adds just $0.06/share to EPS. Fly or fade — which camp are you in?
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22,155 $IOT calls changed hands Friday — 207% above normal volume — while Samsara slid 7.5% to $39.38. The fleet-tech name just beat earnings ($0.20 vs $0.16 expected, revenue +29.9%). Calls into a red day — somebody is betting the selloff was the dip.
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Liquidia just ended a years-long patent war with United Therapeutics — a $380.7M settlement keeping its YUTREPIA lung drug on the market. Wednesday: 7.09M shares traded (+235%), stock up 27% to $34.12, HC Wainwright lifted its target to $65. Lawsuit over — rerate or head fake?
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Goldman just lifted its $KEYS target to $487 — 30%+ above today's price. Thursday: 3,779 calls traded, 164% above normal volume, days after it unveiled 1.6T test platforms built with NVIDIA for AI data centers. Tape and analysts in lockstep — what breaks the streak?
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Options desks are bracing for a bad Wednesday at $LRCX: $72M of put premium traded Thursday vs ~$6M of calls — biggest print $22.3M of December puts. Nine straight red sessions, the longest slide since 1984. Earnings Wednesday. Is the AI equipment trade running on fumes?
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