Amongst the blind the crosseyed can see Not investment advice, may be long or short positions that I discuss.
New York, USA
Joined September 2025
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mic check....
everyone is retarded.
know which retarded to be at which time, and you usually will make a lot of money.
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flood is arrogant but probably right here.
1. funding still broadly quite positive. people are long.
2. google had additional quantum breakthroughs released this week
3. oai focus on math / cryptographic breakthroughs (see recent crypto-security acquisition) means hard-to-disprove FUD is coming
4. semis will lead crypto flush downward
5. midterms broadly negative for crypto given grift of current adminstration
don't really pay attention too much to the space anymore ex-Jeff Yan, but think it's a pretty logical short set up.
Can tell that a lot of you weren’t around for the crashes of 2022.
Luna terra style except this time with chips.
Things usually need to look more bleak before they get better.
realistically
equity markets have gotten addicted to cocaine
updates like the ant arr numbers are basically equivalents of seeking out new hit of dopamine
once expectations get embedded into prices, you lose sensitivity to the new bump.
we basically need full reset of 2028/9 expects on gigawatts added if we want semiconductor / power stocks to actually be set up well.
cleanse our souls god.
Ironically
It’s most likely VARA this time.
From what I’ve heard, Leopold actually flipped short a week ago and has massive put spreads on.
Issue is getting out of those is going to be nasty.
Not saying market needs to squeeze up but trust me, this time Leopold is completely fine.
Don’t spread FUD.
What are the odds.
Leopold runs 4x leverage into the worst growth drawdown in history.
Proceeds to get margin called into selling his entire book to Citadel at the bottom, reportedly reloads with options, and then catches ANOTHER historic growth drawdown.
Some of the worst timing I have ever witnessed.
check semiconductor prices on hyperliquid over the weekend.
real money getting out then they’ll tell you they said it a month ago.
follow the money
Likely need another puke from here to get people out of their semis positions.
Selling still feels heavy in absence of new information…
More interested in how the Houthis are going to jack oil prices this weekend and bleed semis guys dry.
Imagine
You had sold semis in June
Bought 10x genomics in march
Correctly degrossed post Leopold
And are up 150%
Net
conspiracy theory making the rounds in my circles right now:
@elonmusk is in trump's ear trying to derail anthropic IPO so spacexai can get better access to compute.
trump already can't stand dario, probably does not want to see EA's have major liquidity event, and so is not going to try to pump the ecosystem so the slack can be absorbed by elon and co early in 2027.
look at the way elon has been tweeting RE memory prices and neoclouds.
in this case, do not look to trump admin to "bail out" your semiconductor longs.
the silence of the usual pumpers (@GavinSBaker , @dylan522p , @altcap) tells you all you need to know about who is selling and who is buying today.
as most people are thinking right now
only one man can save semis
@GavinSBaker please report in for duty.
“Next year I’ll do 1 trillion in ARR.
Trust me bro”
Hi Tae, we wrote this so happy to clarify—the $110 billion ARR figure is from sell side analysts who attended Analyst Day yesterday and estimated based on guidance, not a figure directly disclosed by the company. Aplos for any confusion. We’ve update the story to reflect this.
They’re going to need a side-limo today.
*KOREA EXCHANGE ACTIVATES SIDECAR TO HALT KOSDAQ PROGRAM SELLING
This is bearish cyber security / SaaS.
Demand for intelligence is unlimited.
Demand for Opus level intelligence is very limited.
Luckily the labs have much smarter models on tap.
If they want more compute they are going to have to find a way to monetize said models.
Rev share and whitelisting comes next. Monetization isn’t linear. Claude Code made that abundantly apparent.
Side note: the ARR lab disclosure by both labs is a clusterfuck and both CFOs should do better.
Regardless of the incompetence of the finance function at the labs the reality is we are ahead of schedule on scaling laws and model progress and distillation is being addressed.
Lab ARR matters but is a lagging indicator vs model capabilities.
That said bears are right to view that as cope near term. The truth is Ant got mogged temporarily by OAI and then by the double whammy of China distillation crackdown and META shifting away.
Shit happens. You move on.
That said on a forward 12-18 month basis models get much better, enterprise adoption accelerates as higher IQ agents ameliorate human bottlenecks and as labs drive race conditions that force adoption by vertical. So ARR will ofc once again accelerate.
And anyone looking at neocloud unsecureds as a proofpoint re the ability to finance capex is a moron and either genuinely has done zero work on the compute capital stack or is purposefully driving fud.
Which is fine. No crying in the casino.
Long compute 🫡
For what it’s worth -
This sort of miss, even if small, can tilt credit markets to really preclude the ability to fund more speculative capex.
I remain bullish on AI but when the set up is so aggressive these fragile systems can break in non obvious ways.