One of the best scenes from my childhood RIP Mike Ditka

A new paper from Alexander W. Crosier examines Kalshi’s next-day weather markets. The findings: • Kalshi beats the most accurate public forecast, the National Blend of Models (NBM), in six of seven cities studied. • Kalshi outperforms NBM by 10% a day ahead. • Kalshi beats a weighted blend of public forecasts at every horizon tested: day ahead, evening before, and morning of. From daily plans to decisions about flights, farming, and energy supply, better weather forecasts help people make better decisions. That’s the value of price discovery on an open exchange: trading produces useful information for everyone. How do traders improve on forecasts built by meteorologists? The paper explains: “Traders do not need to make a better weather model than the meteorologists. They only need to start from what has been published and add anything that the weather guidance missed.” Markets give people a financial incentive to be right. Traders build sophisticated models, analyze public forecasts, and seek out information others have missed. They compete to identify and offer better prices, incorporating that information into the market’s forecast. The benefits extend to everyone: the resulting forecast is available to people who never place a trade. ~75% of people who use Kalshi come for the forecasts, not to trade. The Weather Company, Fox Weather, and thousands of everyday people are using Kalshi’s weather data: markets turn competing analyses into information people can use. Read the full paper here: arxiv.org/pdf/2609.23969

#CUBS WIN! FINAL: Cubs 4, Pirates 3.

PCA. THAT IS ALL.

LP supercell near Morris #ilwx struggling to keep its meso alive and well

In 109 supercells, tornadic storms tended to have stronger, more organized rear-flank winds directed toward the low-level mesocyclone. Buoyancy differences were small, suggesting that outflow organization mattered more than whether it was warmer or colder. #AMSMadisonSummit