A $39.99 woven shirt, $10 FOB from China. In the de minimis era it needed a 3.15x ROAS to break even. Same shirt today, same costs, only the duty changed: 4.72x. Ads Manager still shows your 3.5x campaign as a win. It's losing money on every order. What changed: until May 2025 anything under $800 shipped direct from China cleared US customs at 0%. De minimis ended for China first, for every origin on 29 Aug 2025, and in June 2026 the suspension became permanent regulation. Every parcel now pays the full stacked rate. For woven apparel from China that's 27.9% MFN plus the 12.5% Section 301 forced labor duty that arrived in July. 40.4%, before you touch the older China 301 lists (List 4A adds 7.5 points, Lists 1 to 3 add 25). Same $39.99 SKU, China origin, no list tier. Duty now, and the new floor. Every row was 3.15x before: Woven apparel 40.4% → 4.72x Footwear 32.5% → 4.30x Bags & luggage 30.1% → 4.19x Knit apparel 29.0% → 4.14x Home textiles 23.8% → 3.92x Jewelry 23.5% → 3.91x Home & kitchen 15.9% → 3.63x Cables & chargers 15.1% → 3.60x Consumer electronics 12.5% → 3.51x Toys 12.5% → 3.51x Even the categories with zero MFN moved. The 12.5% tier on its own costs $1.30 of margin per unit. Why the floor jumps more than the duty: before duty that shirt kept $12.69 of contribution per order. Duty takes about $4.20 of it, a third of the margin. Every remaining dollar has to work harder, so a 40% duty became a 50% jump in the floor. And if the shirt's HTS code sits on China Lists 1 to 3, the total is 65.4%, landed cost goes from $12.45 to $19.25, and the floor is 6.80x. That isn't a weak campaign. That's a product you can't advertise. Three things to do this week: 1. Recalculate landed cost with the rate that applies today, not the one in last year's sheet. 2. Put that landed cost into break-even ROAS. 3. Move your kill line in Ads Manager to that number. Meta doesn't know what you paid CBP. Full table, model and sources in the first reply.

Your backup cron has been green for months. Have you ever actually restored one of those dumps? I hadn't. And when I finally tried, I understood why "a backup you've never restored is just a hope" is an industry proverb.

Someone on r/Supabase asked where BackupDrill actually puts your backups: "Locally? Can you make a video?" So I made one. Under a minute: - your bucket (S3/R2/B2), your keys - never written to our disks - weekly restore drill: verified, destroyed Proof, not promises.