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This. This is why u should subscribe too.
@Schwarzenegger’s email today, with a focus on mental health, was exactly what I needed to hear. Hit home in a positive way that helped me step out of a deep rut.
Many thanks, Arnold for always being a positive “influence”!
Matt Sullivan from @sportingnews on the @Phillies making an historic deal- for an 11th year old player.
sportingnews.com/us/mlb/phil…
Matthew Sullivan with the latest the Philadelphia Phillies and J.T. Realmuto contract saga.
#Philadelphia #Phillies #JTRealmuto
tinyurl.com/Phillies-JT-Real…
Baltimore Orioles trade updates from Matthew Sullivan, including ideas on what might be coming next for the Os.
#BaltimoreOrioles #MLB
tinyurl.com/Orioles-Shane-Ba…
Steve Sullivan retweeted
I don’t really do endorsements. I’m not shy about sharing my views, but I hate politics and don’t trust most politicians.
I also understand that people want to hear from me because I am not just a celebrity, I am a former Republican Governor.
My time as Governor taught me to love policy and ignore politics. I’m proud of the work I did to help clean up our air, create jobs, balance the budget, make the biggest infrastructure investment in state history, and take power from the politicians and give it back to the people when it comes to our redistricting process and our primaries in California.
That’s policy. It requires working with the other side, not insulting them to win your next election, and I know it isn’t sexy to most people, but I love it when I can help make people’s lives better with policies, like I still do through my institute at USC, where we fight for clean air and stripping the power from the politicians who rig the system against the people.
Let me be honest with you: I don’t like either party right now. My Republicans have forgotten the beauty of the free market, driven up deficits, and rejected election results. Democrats aren’t any better at dealing with deficits, and I worry about their local policies hurting our cities with increased crime.
It is probably not a surprise that I hate politics more than ever, which, if you are a normal person who isn’t addicted to this crap, you probably understand.
I want to tune out.
But I can’t. Because rejecting the results of an election is as un-American as it gets. To someone like me who talks to people all over the world and still knows America is the shining city on a hill, calling America is a trash can for the world is so unpatriotic, it makes me furious.
And I will always be an American before I am a Republican.
That’s why, this week, I am voting for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.
I’m sharing it with all of you because I think there are a lot of you who feel like I do. You don’t recognize our country. And you are right to be furious.
For decades, we’ve talked about the national debt. For decades, we’ve talked about comprehensive immigration reform that secures the border while fixing our broken immigration system. And Washington does nothing.
The problems just keep rolling, and we all keep getting angrier, because the only people that benefit from problems aren’t you, the people. The only people that benefit from this crap are the politicians who prefer having talking points to win elections to the public service that will make Americans’ lives better.
It is a just game to them. But it is life for my fellow Americans. We should be pissed!
But a candidate who won’t respect your vote unless it is for him, a candidate who will send his followers to storm the Capitol while he watches with a Diet Coke, a candidate who has shown no ability to work to pass any policy besides a tax cut that helped his donors and other rich people like me but helped no one else else, a candidate who thinks Americans who disagree with him are the bigger enemies than China, Russia, or North Korea - that won’t solve our problems.
It will just be four more years of bullshit with no results that makes us angrier and angrier, more divided, and more hateful.
We need to close the door on this chapter of American history, and I know that former President Trump won’t do that. He will divide, he will insult, he will find new ways to be more un-American than he already has been, and we, the people, will get nothing but more anger.
That’s enough reason for me to share my vote with all of you. I want to move forward as a country, and even though I have plenty of disagreements with their platform, I think the only way to do that is with Harris and Walz.
Vote this week. Turn the page and put this junk behind us.
And even if you disagree with me, vote, because that’s what we do as Americans. vote.org
Steve Sullivan retweeted
When you can't login, view information, or trade at your custodian, perhaps it's time to find a new one?
The CrowdStrike incident was one thing. But today, with the Dow Jones dropping 1,000 points, legacy custodians were down again...
These incidents demonstrate the difference between outdated, legacy incumbents and those equipped to meet the modern era. Today, a custodian must be stable, secure, and, above all, resilient in the face of technological and third-party risk.
Let’s unpack that.
1. Stability
A custodian needs to effectively balance the calls on its technology throughout the day, with management that conducts routine platform checks and implements regular maintenance and upgrades.
Legacy incumbents relying on on-premise servers for data storage will always be limited by their physical footprint, whereas a modern custodian, like Altruist, using cloud-based tools and predictive logic can easily spin up additional servers as needed based on usage volume.
2. Security
A custodian needs to be equipped to prevent outages (like CrowdStrike) and repel cybersecurity attacks (like the MOVEit hacking incident) before they happen.
Every Altruist application is encrypted separately and has a unique decryption key managed by one of the leading third-party enterprise infrastructure security solutions. Our passwords are hashed and unrecoverable, and we use AWS for data storage with a Web Application Firewall. Employee vulnerabilities are addressed with Mobile Device Management software and regular security training.
3. Resilience
Legacy incumbents depend on overnight data transfers to update account systems and settings, whereas modern custodians are built on APIs that are responsive to real-time requests and calls, enabling agile failover mechanisms. Altruist deploys backup systems and retains customer functionality even when all hell breaks loose.
Finally, beyond technical capability, a modern custodian communicates proactively, even during a crisis, ensuring professionals and clients alike are as informed as possible. Customers shouldn’t find out about an outage or attack as it is happening.
Independent advisors, is your custodian ready for the risks of the modern era?
Steve Sullivan retweeted
“There’s so much more growth in front of Nvidia,” says @DanielTNiles on Nvidia surpassing Apple as the second-most valuable company. “Apple is in an industry which doesn’t grow... if I have to pick one to own for the next couple of years, that's clearly Nvidia." $AAPL $NVDA
Steve Sullivan retweeted
With $NVDA becoming the second most valuable company in the world yesterday, I thought it worthwhile to lay out my thoughts both near-term and longer-term depending on your time horizon.
My belief is that over the next 3-4 years, Nvidia revenues are likely to roughly triple from current levels with the stock roughly doubling. However, before year-end we may be near a digestion phase for the amounts spent on AI over the past 1 ½ years since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022.
In this regard, Sequoia, which is a prominent VC investor in the AI space including a lead investor in the seed round for $NVDA in 1993, did a presentation recently in March. Sequoia estimated that the AI industry spent $50B on the NVidia chips used to train advanced AI models in 2023 but brought in only $3B in revenue. I believe a slowdown in AI spending from the torrid rates seen over the past year will be healthy as companies figure out where this spend gets the return on investment necessary.
Large software vendors that just reported the April quarter such as $CRM, $MDB, $SNOW, $WDAY were optimistic on the benefits of AI to their businesses. However, future expectations were cut despite AI benefits as the economy slows, companies cut back on employees due to greater efficiency and the increased spend on AI is coming out of other budgets.
Even during the buildout of the internet, $CSCO, which became the most valuable company in the world in 2000, went through periods of severe stock declines as concerns rose about internet spend digestion. Cisco’s stock saw declines of 26% in late 1995, 38% in early 1997 and 37% in late 1998 as revenue growth rates while still hugely positive either declined or plateaued. Despite these intra-year declines, the stock was up during each of those years in total and increased ~4000% to its peak in 2000 from the end of 1994.
For perspective, Cisco, the leading enabler of the internet infrastructure buildout, since the end of 1994 (the launch of internet web browser Netscape Navigator) saw its revenues increase over 15x from $434M (Oct qtr of 1994) to $6.7B (Jan qtr of 2001) without ever having a sequentially down quarter. Nvidia by comparison since the end of 2022 (the launch of ChatGPT) has seen revenues increase by “only” over 4x over 1 ½ years from $5.9B (Oct qtr of 2022) to $26.0B (April qtr of 2024). AI spending driven by the biggest companies in the world is healthier today than the early spend on the internet when internet advertising models were unproven.
Obviously at some point an actual contraction in AI spend and stock prices is likely as was the case with the internet spend from its peak in 2000. Cisco’s revenues declined 36% in six months to $4.3B (July qtr of 2001) before starting to grow again while the Nasdaq declined 78% from peak to trough over 2 ½ years (and Cisco’s stock declined 89%.) However, I believe we are years away from that ultimate AI peak build out occurring but we will not know that until time passes much like back during the internet buildout.
Steve Sullivan retweeted
I expect a large beat & raise when $NVDA results are released on 5/22 given more supply available from $TSM. Given the stock is currently trading 15% below its 5 year average forward PE but expectations are EXTREMELY high, I would expect a small positive reaction from the stock.
AI landscape:
If I compare the surge in spending on AI today to that of the internet in its early days:
1) From the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 through Q1 of 2024 it has been roughly 5 quarters. Nvidia, the enabler of Generative AI, is expected to see its revenues increase over 4x from ~$6B (Oct qtr of 2022) to an estimated $25B for their soon to be reported Q1 (April qtr of 2024).
2) NetScape Navigator, the first mass internet web browser, was launched in December of 1994 and through Q1 of 1996 would be an equivalent 5 quarters. During this time, Cisco, the leading enabler of the internet infrastructure buildout, saw its revenues increase from $434M (Oct qtr of 1994) to $1,087M (April qtr of 1996) up 2.5x.
3) Cisco’s revenues peaked at up ~16x by the January of 2001 qtr at $6.7B compared to late 1994 and the stock increased 4000% to become the most valuable company in the world. Nvidia by comparison since the end of 2022 has seen revenues increase over 4x and their stock 533% to become the third most valuable company in the world.
4) From a valuation perspective, NVDA’s forward PE is in fact 15% below its average for the past 5 years. NVDA trades at ~35x forward twelve months PE for ~100% revenue growth in CY24. Cisco traded at a forward12 month peak PE of over 135x during the Tech Bubble for nearly 60% revenue growth so this is nowhere near a bubble for NVDA’s stock.
5) I believe that customers have been double and tripling ordering NVDA chips since the start of the AI boom but are unwilling to cancel orders as they await shipments of Nvidia’s new Blackwell chip in late 2024. While investors may anticipate an air pocket in demand before the Blackwell launch, I would expect a period of digestion in early 2025 once customers have received their initial Blackwell orders.
6) I expect increasing declines of 25-35% going forward for NVDA’s stock now that lead-times have come down from roughly one year to 3 months for their chips. As an analogy, Cisco’s stock saw declines of 26% in late 1995, 38% in 1997 and 34% in 1998 on its way to increasing ~4000% to its peak in 2000 from the end of 1994. I believe investors rightly will become more worried with Nvidia, much like they did with Cisco, if/when excess orders will get cancelled or spending will slow down now that supply is catching up with demand.
7) The spending on AI is being driven by some of the most valuable and cash flow positive companies in the world today such as $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META. This compares favorably to much of the spending during the internet buildout which was more debt fueled with a mentality of build it and they will come and a focus on “eyeballs” and not profits to some extent.
In summary: I believe the AI infrastructure buildout could be as powerful for NVDA as it was during the internet infrastructure buildout for Cisco when revs increased ~16x over 5+ years and the stock rose ~4000% but prepare for larger bumps and bruises along the way. I expect to see multiple 25-35%+ drawdowns over the next 3-4 years while Nvidia’s stock ultimately goes up 3-4x from current levels along with revenues.
Steve Sullivan retweeted
We have some news to share. It's been a wild and exciting ride building @altruist. We have awesome team members, investors, of our course - advisor partners. Thank you all. 🙏
We've raised additional funds to continue on our mission to make advice better, more affordable, and accessible to everyone.
Now it's time to get back to work!
We’re excited to announce our $169M Series E led by @ICONIQGrowth—empowering us to build enhanced functionality, scale our service organization, and improve platform experiences for advisors and clients.
We’re just getting started 🚀
Read more: blog.altruist.com/news/serie…
Steve Sullivan retweeted
It was never about charging customers $100
It was about charging customers $100 to get ETF issuers to pay *15% of total fund revenue*
This the kind of fee that brokerage platforms may be used to charging MFs. But ETFs don’t work that way. ETFs do not have 12b1’s. If ETFs are charged *15% revenue* they would have to turn on 12b1’s, and become as fee inefficient as MFs.
@Fidelity taught me the *Customer First* principles that guide our business direction today.
Customer first
Firm (and partners) second
Yourself third
Didn’t know part of that was holding customer experience for ransom to extract MF distribution fees from ETFs - yes, *exchange traded* funds that trade like stocks. What’s next, 12b1 fees on stocks??
I love you @Fidelity, I never stopped drinking the green kool aid. but this is ridiculous.
Fidelity apparently asking ETF issuers for *15%* of total fund revenue in order to be included on platform & avoid investors being charged $100/trade…
One issuer: “The next ETF we come out w/, we’re going to go to market w/ max fee we can justify.”
Brutal.
via @double_you_ess
Steve Sullivan retweeted
Salary doesn't make you rich.
I've listed 46 passive income ideas for 2024.
All you need is:
- Smartphone/PC,
- High Speed Internet
- 2 to 5 hours a day.
Retweet & Reply "Money" to get it for free.
[Must be following] so that I will DM you.
[Only for First 500 People].
Steve Sullivan retweeted
Stock market has ignored rising oil & bond yields all year but was yesterday a warning sign? This makes reaction to NFP on Friday & start of earnings season next wk that much more important. Misses (such as with $TSLA deliveries yesterday) are likely to be punished unlike in 2023.
Steve Sullivan retweeted
Dive into the future with us. Read our CEO, @ItsReneeBaker’s insightful take on how women are reshaping the financial services industry and why diversity is the key to innovation. advisorhub.com/resources/fut…
#FinanceFuture #WomenInFinance #FutureOfFinance #WomenEmpowerment
Steve Sullivan retweeted
“Educate before you allocate.” -@TR401
Steve Sullivan retweeted
.@TR401 is rebranding financial literacy to financial education: "Making it a part of an education structure very early could change a lot of the trends that we're seeing with financial education and access in the country."
Steve Sullivan retweeted
I’ve been blessed to work with some incredible builders over the last few years, but watching @eriksmithcfp and @helloseanmoir collaborate on this stealth project has raised the bar.
🧵1/
Steve Sullivan retweeted
Not just this month, every month.
401financial.co
Steve Sullivan retweeted
If I were a financial advisor I would market entirely through email.
1. Create an email-based course that teaches people exactly what I do, how I do it, and what it takes for them to implement themselves.
2. Sponsor newsletters with readers who share common interests - the ad would offer the course for free.
3. Bump people into a qualification automation based on engagement upon completion of the course (with a few other tasteful CTAs throughout).
This method would immediately get my message in front of a mildly pre-qualified audience. If they go through the course they’ll know exactly what they’re getting into.
Somewhat large upfront investment to craft the course, then some work to find the newsletters you want to sponsor… then it all runs automatically.
After that it’s just optimization. – at Portland, OR





















