@studyE45
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Local top in October and higher low in April followed by the parabola for $ETH?
Local top followed in the very next month after breaking back above 50 level RSI on the monthly.
The bottom is missed, yes but that does not mean we cannot hunt for the higher low and still get in decent.
$ETH is at 0.5 fib level which provided a multiple weeks of correction.
The issue that I see with this and why I think this time around won´t be that long is that the cross did not happend and weekly RSI is not high enough.
Maybe only a fast and sharp correction to 2.1k at 200D MA before going back to 4k where the RSI would be higher and probably the cross will happen.
After that we can expect that multi week correction which could take us either back to 2.5-3k or maybe even back below 2k.
$ETH has broken the 50 level RSI which if held would be massive.
In the previous 2 times the price went up in the following month after closing above 50 level before the correction on the higher low came.
Also, this month is yet to be finished so the monthly candle could advance even further.
On the weekly, the previous 2 rallies had stopped at around 67-68 RSI level which points to higher before a correction can start.
At this point, I think we will go higher until October, at least.
An October local top instead of where the bottom should have been would be really painful to see.
The bulls will max dunk on bears not knowing they are next on the line. Many bears would give in and buy in the local top just because it´s October and that´s where they should have bought.
The way $BTC looks right now is, believe it or not, still good.
It it still did not lost support on the weekly because although the weekly candle body was engulfed, the wick was not, which means it is still in the cards for higher.
It is still on above the March high.
I guess it all comes down to a matter of perspective.
If you want to be conservative for a swing short, you can wait until the full weekly candle is engulfed.
If you want to be agressive, then you need to anticipate a full lose of support and a complete engulfing of the weekly candle.
If you believe that the support will be lost than this is where you short imo, right here and now.
You can see that, what the price is doing is right now, is just a bearish retest on the daily, because the full engulfing has already occured.
The price has no business trading above the engulfing candle high.
