justin

On Morocco, Russia, and Western Sahara: Russia no longer has the strategic foothold in Syria that it once enjoyed, its old friend Gaddafi is long gone, and the fallout from Wagner has complicated Moscow's ability to pursue a coherent strategy across Africa. So yes, of course that keeping the Western Sahara conflict alive serves a larger Russian objective of obstructing U.S. influence and preventing the emergence of stronger regional partnerships that could challenge Moscow's interests. More importantly, the Russians have also failed to appreciate how much Morocco's position has changed. The kingdom isn't simply an American ally in North Africa anymore. Morocco has become a major economic and financial power in West Africa, with Moroccan banks controlling nearly 30% of the West African banking market, and Moroccan investments spanning telecommunications, fertilizers, infrastructure, and industry. The proposed $25 billion Nigeria-Morocco Atlantic Gas Pipeline, stretching approximately 6,900 kilometers across 13 countries, could further transform the kingdom's strategic importance by connecting West African energy markets to Europe, which will inevitably make Russian gas irrelevant. It's safe to say that Moscow has certainly noticed this transformation, which explains why Russian diplomatic rhetoric has become increasingly accommodating toward Rabat (as I pointed out in their draft). But the underlying calculation hasn't changed since Russia still treats an abstention, rather than a favorable vote, as a diplomatic concession for which Morocco should offer something in return. That approach may have worked when Moscow enjoyed greater leverage, but Morocco's growing strategic weight has fundamentally changed the equation. By vetoing today's resolution, Moscow apparently believed it could reaffirm its commitment to Algeria, one of its principal regional partners, while preserving its ability to bargain with Morocco. But the Russians have misread the room. Rabat now has much less reason to believe that engagement with Moscow produces meaningful diplomatic returns. In many ways, this could be a blessing in disguise for Morocco, exposing Russia's priorities and giving Rabat every reason to deepen its alignment with Washington and Europe. Putin is accelerating the very Western alignment he wanted prevent.