And Sagal has the second lowest vote total of any sitting MP in England and Wales. Only James McMurdock has received fewer votes in England Wales to sit in Parliament. Sagal got 17.44% of all the votes of registered electors. This is the lowest ever in the constituency this century. The "this is a by-election" refrain is undercut by the fact that the Labour Party ran easily the biggest ground and GOTV campaign this constituency has seen in over a decade. It's also during a new-PM honeymoon. Labour's vote has been on a historic slide both in local and Parliamentary elections since people started realising what Starmerism was and how it had transformed the Party. Sagal, herself, had her vote slashed by 33% in her local seat just five months ago. Burnham has slowed but not halted the slide - Sagal has the lowest ever percentage majority in this constituency, which had been around for half a century. If Healey and Mahmood get their way, that slide begins again; if people are poorer in real terms at the end of the Parliament than they were in 2024, as seems likely, it'll slide further, with only a rump of affluent middle class professionals left. If Sagal is finally scrutinised here, or tucks in behind Burnham when he delivers the "bad news" part of his platform next month, disaffection will grow. People here will not take well to another Labour MP who votes and advocates to the right of the constituency's values. It'll then be up to whatever progressive candidate stands in the next election to turn that disaffection into a vote to replace a Party that is no longer much loved here. Sagal was elected on an extremely soft vote, vulnerable to an insurgent challenge. I wouldn't bet much money on Sagal being anything more than a one-term MP. This Labour right boor can crow all he likes, doing a little victory lap. But it's the victory of his type of politician in the Labour Party that has made people dump it in droves.