Reinforcing priors since at least 1996. @Breakingviews ex @ft @nytimes @cbsnews @bloomberg @fortunemagazine @time. On Signal. DM for contact info.

Manhattan, NY
Joined March 2010
Stephen Gandel retweeted
BREAKING: America’s $1.7 trillion auto loan market is headed for a crash, per Reuters. Auto loans are now one of the biggest sources of household debt, bigger than credit cards. And the strain is showing: 1 in 5 Americans is behind on at least one loan, the highest since 2010, and the average car on the road is now nearly 13 years old, a record.
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Stephen Gandel retweeted
Betting on tonight's Dodgers game is not "investing" even if @Kalshi uses that term to allow it to offer bets to teenagers through captive @CFTC. This type of financial doublespeak is dangerous as I describe in my latest @barronsonline barrons.com/articles/the-dan…
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Stephen Gandel retweeted
like every finance reporter is trying to prove a cabal between private capital, data centers, life insurers, and rating agencies and this guy— whose marginal cost of capital is 20%— just says on the record in the FT it’s all true and it’s his business model:
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Also please explain this. If everyone were to give agents access to their bank accounts, why would agents need stablecoins? Why can’t they just buy stuff with our money?
AI agents aren't going to ruin the financial system. They are going to improve it for the consumer. That is ultimately what scares Wall Street. Any business model based on screwing consumers will come under pressure.
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Surprisingly, I agree with this take, although the way he gets there is odd. But let me suggest another more likely outcome rather than any of the ones asserted here. Banks will just ban agents. Remember how OpenBanking played out.
AI agents aren't going to ruin the financial system. They are going to improve it for the consumer. That is ultimately what scares Wall Street. Any business model based on screwing consumers will come under pressure.
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You can ask all you want, but Jes Staley doesn't have any information on members of the Magic Kingdom. (Moana?)
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Stephen Gandel retweeted
How do the Dodgers carry an unlimited payroll? Filings uncovered by @NickNemo17 show roughly $1.45 billion in debt for American Media Productions, the entity behind SportsNet LA and the Dodgers' 25-year, $8.35 billion Charter deal, sitting on the balance sheets of 5 life insurance companies tied to or controlled by the Dodgers' own ownership group. i.e. the Dodgers get a sweetheart deal on their TV rights from a media company their owners co-own, financed by insurance companies those same owners control. Because ownership sits on both sides, as borrower and lender, the setup functions as a closed loop: -When RSNs hit turbulence, banks enforce covenants or force restructuring. Here the lenders are insurers the owners manage, so the capital stays patient and cash flow to the team never gets choked. -MLB taxes net local revenue at 34% but allows deductions for debt service and interest tied to running the network. Carrying $1.45 billion in media debt on AMP's balance sheet generates interest expense that shrinks reportable net TV income and the resulting revenue-sharing bill. Then there's the payroll itself. Over $1 billion of it is deferred, owed to 9 players through 2047. Pushing that cash out frees up money today, some of which is going toward servicing that same debt, and kicks the actual bill to a stretch of decades many of today's owners won't be around for. LA built a (seemingly illegal) structure that captures its own interest yield, shelters TV income from league revenue sharing, and helps fund payroll dominance in the process.
Who holds the Dodgers' TV-network debt? Five insurers tied to the owners. Delaware Life $277M, Clear Spring $310M (Walter; filed "unaffiliated"). Security Benefit $371M (Boehly; "related party"). EquiTrust 350M. Heritage Life 140M. Total is: ~$1.45B. Attn financial media: You can cite me as you would @citrini or @SemiAnalysis_ or @hntrbrkmedia. It's a two way street and I cite you and we know you'd still have lower numbers. Sports reporters: @PabloTorre @JeffPassan @Ken_Rosenthal @JonHeyman @BNightengale @Joelsherman1 @Buster_ESPN @JesseRogersESPN @Feinsand @BillShaikin @EvanDrellich @JomboyMedia @TalkinBaseball_ @FoulTerritoryTV @TrueHoop @hayesdavenport What is the obvious story here? reminder: Sportsnet has a sweetheart rev-share deal. ⚾️
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Trumps laugh all the way to the bank charter - tinyurl.com/4kt2wb4p @stephengandel
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Stephen Gandel retweeted
On its face this might seem like good news for Ballmer, but the last prominent rich guy to get hit with failure to supervise wound up facing the most severe consequences imaginable (having to become the owner of the Mets), so...
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Lower stakes could lead to better Fed stress tests - tinyurl.com/ms6x9jte @stephengandel
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Stephen Gandel retweeted
*APOLLO PRIVATE CREDIT FUND GETS ABOUT 16.8% REDEMPTION REQUESTS I was told the private credit fears were overdone.
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LendingClub rebranding as Happen Bank is not as odd as Truist, but still don't get it. For a refresher on everything you need to know about bank names read this: ft.com/content/014bced0-3be2…
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If SBF did nothing illegal, he would not have had millions to make VC investments.
If Sam Bankman-Fried did nothing illegal, he might have been the best VC in history What SBF bought vs. what it's worth today: • Cursor: ~$200K → ~$3B (+1,499,900%) • Anthropic: ~$499M → $82.3B (+16,400%) • SpaceX: ~$200M → ~$15B (+7,400%) • Solana: ~$189M → $5.1B (+2,600%) • Robinhood: $612.5M → $4.9B (+700%) • Genesis Digital: $1.17B → $3.5B (+200%) Had he done nothing wrong, he'd have an estimated worth of $114,000,000,000 today Instead he's tweeting from Federal Correctional Institution
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DWS has Nexus Buyer aka @IntraFi marked at 99.3 cents. Financial system going down. (I think this mark is probably because it is a floating rate note. Also not financial advice.)
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Hearty mega-bank returns blunt capital complaints - tinyurl.com/yschew6z @stephengandel
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JPMorgan leaves American dream to the imagination - tinyurl.com/5t43d8vc @stephengandel
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The illustration on this Citywire story on Cliffwater and Blue Owl -- of course you do.
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Quick take: Mastercard is trying to hold onto half of its duopoly.
Mastercard is acquiring stablecoin infrastructure company BVNK:
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New rules may tether stablecoins' American growth - tinyurl.com/mtyakj2e @stephengandel
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