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Joined June 2023
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A rapid-fire summary of the...
TOP 7 GEOPOLITICAL RISKS IN 2025 (that you probably haven't heard of) 🔥
Have we missed anything?
#Thailand #Iran #Mali #Venezuela #Greenland #EU #DebtCrisis #Geopolitics
We have compiled some of THE charts to watch as we enter the new year with the Trump presidency, Fed flip-flopping and high equity market concentration posing risks to markets.
The chart-pack can be accessed below: stenoresearch.com/wp-content…
Maker's transition to rebrand as Sky, and to shift from its Dai stablecoin to USDS, heavily reduces its profitability. However, we remain highly optimistic about this change, as we believe it will drive significant growth for Maker.
You can access the full note at: buff.ly/485WnQD
We have a special free macro nugget up on our site with a primer on the liquidity outlook for the rest of the year
buff.ly/3zJDVAh
Remember to subscribe to our free newsletter for more updates on all things macro and markets: buff.ly/3IeEF1g
Steno Research retweeted
It’s a GUNGHO SUMMER! ☀️
🤝 Welcome back to #MacroMondays with .@AndreasSteno and .@RosenvoldGeo
🧵Key takeaways from today’s show:
1/ 🌐 Andreas predicts a positive market outlook with #inflation dropping and liquidity increasing despite initial market resistance.
2/ 📉 US CPI report showed a soft print, indicating deflation. Energy prices and durable goods dropped, but public transportation costs surprisingly fell, raising questions about market reactions. #CPI #Deflation
3/ 🚗 Used car prices declined, transportation services saw a 0.5% drop, and airline fares decreased by 3.5%. These factors contributed to the overall deflationary trend. #InflationData
4/ 📈 Despite positive macro indicators, market reactions were mixed. Steno suggests markets were already positioned for a soft CPI, causing initial negative reactions. #MarketTrends
5/ 📊 Look out for an insurance rate cut by the Fed in September, as inflation falls below projections and unemployment rises. Powell's recent communications support this outlook. #FedPolicy #InterestRates
6/ 🚢 Shipping woes continue! Due to storms, container ships diverted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding to existing delays and capacity issues. Rising freight rates are expected to impact prices. #GlobalTrade #Shipping
7/ 🇨🇳 China's economic dynamics show strong exports but weak local consumption. No rush for fiscal stimulus asthe export sector remains strong. Focus on long-term middle-class growth. #ChinaEconomy
8/ 💰 Intervention in Asian currencies was predicted, focusing on the dollar vs. Asian FX. Steno sees softness on the dollar side, suggesting a potential trend reversal. #Forex #AsianMarkets
9/ 🥇 Precious metals like gold and silver have been hedges against strong dollar vs. local currency risks in Asia. A weaker dollar could reduce this natural bid for precious metals. #Commodities #Gold
10/ 📉 @RealVision's portfolio strategy includes short positions in silver and copper, long positions in consumer discretionary, and short US dollar vs. Latin American FX. #InvestmentStrategy
🔥 For more in-depth analysis, join the Real Vision community for FREE rvtv.io/4cG9k5m
🔗 Check out the full episode on our YouTube channel. [LINK IN COMMENT]
We trade in our crypto portfolio, adding a token with tremendous potential. The token generates substantial net income and stands to benefit significantly from increased Real-World Assets (RWA) activity.
Read the note in full: buff.ly/3Lq09ty
When it rains, it pours... Let's see if this spills over into goods inflation. Consider buying your christmas presents now?
Subcribe to our free macro nugget for updates on markets and macro
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Steno Research retweeted
Copper price action remains heavy in contrast to the consensus expectations. Are you paying attention?
More -> stenoresearch.com/watch-seri…
Steno Research retweeted
🔵 Will the democrats get rid of Joe Biden?
@AndreasSteno x @RosenvoldGeo
Full discussion youtu.be/SAXJ0xc2XD4?si=rAPM… 👈
#MacroMonday
Steno Research retweeted
Another smoking hot Services CPI number from the UK, way above consensus but close to our nowcast
BoE is still caught between a rock and a hard place. I don't see them cutting this year.
More: stenoresearch.com/daily-post…
Egypt, which had been exporting LNG since 2019, is now set to return as a buyer and plans to make its largest purchase of LNG in years to avert an energy shortage.
Watch out for this to have a global effect on gas markets!
Steno Research retweeted
The surge in U.S. liquidity starts today.
As a matter of fact, we expect crypto to follow suit. Among other positive factors, there is simply no macroeconomic condition that benefits crypto more than increased liquidity.
Full note: stenoresearch.com/crypto-mov…
Steno Research retweeted
That was admittedly a SOFT inflation report and I was wrong
I am still very sceptical of the notion that inflation is defeated, but I am not a fan of peeing against the wind either..
Details below
Steno Research retweeted
1/ 📈 A few insights from this week's #MacroMondays with .@AndreasSteno as we break down the biggest market moves...
From #Bitcoin's staggering inflows to meme stocks making a comeback, we've got you covered: 🧵youtu.be/2k5fOjRYDzE
Steno Research retweeted
ISM Services jumps back to 53.8
Time to put that recession chatter to bed for a few months again?
Steno Research retweeted
🔥 Macro Mondays with .@AndreasSteno
youtu.be/xh703bdvVyM