Whenever we see some of the damage done since 2015 in Nigeria, we scream “APC MUST GO!” The question we don't ask ourselves deeply is how this will realistically happen? APC has mutated from being a parasite that can be removed with an election after 16 years, the way the earlier parasite PDP was displaced, because they learned from the host (Nigeria) and are now a deadly virus. First, they killed PDP from the inside, something that PDP could never have achieved with the APC, and have advanced state capture from both the grassroots and the top in a pincer movement while taking advantage of the favorable headwinds created by a frothy oil market. They now have much more money than they could imagine. The host is sustaining and strengthening them. They have also successfully captured the leaders of industry as opposition from them at this stage when you have something at stake is suicidal. My visit to Lagos last week opened my eyes; nobody who has anything of value in Nigeria that can be threatened by policy or regulation is acting against the APC. America is also now like that, or even worse with Trump, so I don't blame anyone. They do what they must to survive. I can't forget what one of the big guys in Nigerian tech and payments told @OoTheNigerian in Edo pidgin many years ago: “You don see reesh activist?” There are indeed no rich activists except those pursuing the interests of the regime in power. I even have relatives doing that. I still believe that all of this is on the surface and something must give in the end. We survived Abacha; we survived PDP; APC is different, but not invincible. They will, however, not be displaced by shouting and activism but by subversion from within. The same playbook they used to kill the PDP. The only thing that keeps APC together now is money and a hint of tribalism, or regionalism; it is not ideology. Those ties aren't strong enough because they contain further divisions. Classism and intra-ethnic divisions are inevitable sources of schism, but it seems they are playing that game against the Southeast already. The North will decide Nigeria's fate and the APC's, as they likely won't be swayed by largely superficial divisions. The long game of the APC is Northern irrelevance and the leaders there see the handwriting on the wall. All of the turf wars there over solid minerals are not helping them. Feudalism is also in the end stage. Religion on the other hand is a stronger bond in the North than in the South. The Middle Belt have been used as the scapegoat by everyone and they also have a hand in APC’s potential irrelevance. I am still amazed at how people like Saraki were checkmated easily because the people had enough, but now that same region is where someone supposedly wanted by the authorities for corruption is running for the Senate. I don't want to use the “R” word but people in the Middle Belt are more likely to lead a revolution against the APC that will free Nigeria and it will likely spread from there to the North. The South-South is gone to the APC and sadly that is where most of our national wealth is originated. The risk of any political revolution is a national schism. The more I think of it, the more I realize that we are in a deep hostage situation with the APC. Slogans won't dislodge them. Biology may be our eventual intervention. All of these leaders will age and leave the earth. The next level is where the real battle will be fought. That is where I am sure Nigeria may likely break up unless things change. There is no daylight as tribalism without benefits has now be strangely entrenched by aging polititicians. I see things here daily and worry about Nigeria’s future. What we thought was a nation is now far gone. We now have cults of personality and ethnicity. I hope to be proven wrong but I don't see anyone’s hope being renewed in the next decade. Maybe ideology will eventually enter Nigerian politics but it may be too late.