Still hoping Tesla will complete the fleet.
Joined October 2015
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I think the deal to include a floating collar mechanism to allow for changes in share prices and the combined market caps between the announcement and the vote. There's a few different ways that could operate, but here's one example.
The ratio stays fixed if the combined market cap remains unchanged or drops. Both companies share in any upside.
Under the rumoured 70/30 allocation, TSLA shareholders could see $370/share translate to ~$629 in the combined entity. A 70% premium!
Under that deal, Musk would retain ~63% voting control through SpaceX’s 10× super-voting shares.
Given those super votes, he could even afford to offer $690 a share without losing control.
BREAKING: A Tesla–SpaceX merger could be announced before Tesla’s annual meeting in early December, per Barclays.
The most likely structure: SpaceX acquires Tesla in an all-stock deal, with Tesla shareholders getting about 0.7 SpaceX shares per Tesla share, plus a likely premium.
Barclays says Musk would own about 37% of the combined company, with roughly 56% of the voting power.
What Elon will say on the Earnings Call.
Vs.
What Elon is really thinking.
Hmm... some thoughts on these, no particular order...
1. Progress update on Optimus. What is their intended roadmap/milestones? There needs to be a bit more meat on the bone for investors.
2. Robotaxi economics. When do they expect that robotaxi will start to drive positive gross margin, and what are the key variables/targets they hope to accomplish (and by when). Expansion plans for 2027?
3. Semi ramp progression & customer backlog. Also update on Semi FSD timeline, and plans for megacharger deployment (in US).
4. Semi expansion. Beyond Europe, any plans for Asia?
5. Energy storage. Growth has been moderating. What is the target for 2027. Between Lathrop and Shanghai, Tesla has 80 GWh of megapack manufacturing capacity. When do they think they will hit that capacity?
6. FSD v15. How much better is it (disengagements, safety metrics etc) and when is it coming to the fleet?
7. On the vehicle side, beyond the current lineup, any other plans longer-term? Or nah ramp Cybercab to 2M + launch driverless toaster.
8. Battery Factory update. How is the LFP ramp going? Will cost sstructure improve in coming months from domestic production/less tariff impact? 4680 ramp...is production sufficient to support Semi ramp?
Yes please.
The @Tesla Semi platform could allow for many different variants in the future. This way, everything can become electronic and autonomous:
• Buses
• RVs
• Firetrucks
• Garbage trucks
• Dump trucks
I hope this happens one day.
Brian with the first meaningful bits of information all day long!
Up to 8,000 robotaxis by year end sounds good.
Fleet operator pricing. ✔️ ✅️
$2 a share in late 2027... if that's quarterly, I'll take it!
Cybercab event was mostly a private employee party with some friends who often happened to be youtubers.
But info that came out or is known answer all your questions.
1 million unsupervised miles total, up from 380,000 at earnings 5-6 weeks ago.
Instead of miles growing at 10% increase per week now 17% per week. Tesla at about 150,000 unsupervised miles per week. 4–5.5 million miles per week for the Waymo with 10-15X the cars. Tesla passes Waymo in about 17-20 weeks. Dynamic pricing based on time of day and other real time info. Actual prices at about $1.50 per mile. About half the waymo pricing. 420 registered in Texas. will be getting to 4000-8000 vehicles by end of year with 50-100% Waymo mile per vehicle usage. Tesla at about 30-50% Waymo miles per vehicle. Tesla will be selling to fleet operators at about $25 to $30k per vehicle. Plus with the FSD subscription and [I assume] likely some per mile charge.
City timeline is public and unchanged from the last earnings call. Cybercab production from earnings deck as well. Will get to 2500 per week. $TSLA
Using dry cell 4680 batteries. using unboxed giant lego manufacturing process. Everything about it faster and cheaper. Will be getting to big numbers in 2027. Substantial earnings per share impact Q3 or Q4 2027. Like $2 per share.
Also, if paying attention to high gas prices and China 15k ahead in sales of Q2, likely going to about 500,000 cars sold in Q3. FSD now on about 1.5 milllion vehicles. FSD subscriptions increasing. If we get the robotaxi version FSD 15 in Q4 this will bump FSD sales. FSD subscriptions towards 100% would mean $1200 per year recurring on say 2 million new vehicles and adding subscriptions to older vehicles. 2 million at $1200 per year is $2.4 billion per year. 2027 could be $5 billion per year recurring.
All of this.
IF Tesla committed with a BIG 3 Row SUV based on the Cybertruck chassis it would absolutely destroy any Range Rover, Hyundai, Lucid, Rivian.. pick a name it wouldn’t be close.
Do it @elonmusk
Both of these are on point.
Drop your best ideas for what vehicle @Tesla should make next. Who knows, Elon might take note.
(I don't normally ask for comments, but kinda need to here)
Personally I'd love a bigger SUV like one of these. I'm partial to the one on the left. Sleek, smooth curves, looks futuristic. The one on the right is by @ThaaatColin, it looks good too, but I prefer the sleek version.
As much as i like Cybertruck, the market hasn't embraced the form factor.
Something boxier would probably sell better.
