25+ Yrs Investing + Operating in Consumer Transformations | Vindico Capital x SUNDAY SESH | Ex-Soros, Magnetar, $TPB | Watch The Periphery
New York, USA
Joined January 2011
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1/ Cannabis 3.0 = Architecture.🧵
Enjoyed kicking around this critical next phase with @jesseredmond and @MorganPaxhia on @higherexchanges.
Cannabis Stages Stack (key tenet):
Cannabis 1.0 = Green Wave as demand leads policy
Cannabis 2.0 = Bifurcation as the strong get stronger
Cannabis 3.0 = Architecture as survivors build
My takeaway from $PM earnings: U.S. nicotine pouch category still incredibly healthy, but competitive backdrop is changing in real-time.
ZYN volumes +4.2% Y/Y, and $PM stepping up investment again, expanding formats and adjusting price architecture to defend share.
Good for consumers.
More complicated for shareholders.
I'll have more soon. $PM $BTI $TPB among others.
One of the best consumer growth stories is coming from a sector most investors have structurally ignored for 15 years:
Nicotine.
$BTI $PM $TPB $MO
ft.com/content/1239bc3e-35cc…
1/Last year, I outlined how Big Food lost its moat 👇
Decades of underinvestment, financial engineering, and neglecting the changing consumer. All masked during COVID where artificial demand supported unsustainable pricing that's now unwinding.
Now $KR has unveiled a 3-yr transformation plan.
My takeaway? Big Food continues to get squeezed. 🧵
How Big Food Lost Its Moat 🧵
If you’ve followed me for a minute, you know I give Big Food a hard time. Nothing personal, tons of friends/counterparts trying their best.
The truth: what’s happening right now was visible 20+ yrs ago—ignored at worst, deferred to younger managers at best. See 2014 tweet.
As an outsider, it was impossible to fix. But much of what I’m about to lay out was fixable.
Some did. Most didn’t.👇
4/
$KR believes its promotional strategy is too complex and everyday pricing isn't low enough to incent larger baskets and loyalty.
This is a shot across the bow to Big Food--they will need to eat some of that change.
And now face a double squeeze: wholesale pricing pressure AND private-label share gains. Nothing new, just solidified further.
The irony? Decades of prioritizing dividends, buybacks, and M&A over innovation have left many brands poorly differentiated.
Pricing power is earned. Not inherited.
5/
Big Food’s moat wasn’t stolen. It was eroded from within.
$KR may absorb some pain to defend traffic. But I suspect weaker food brands ultimately surrender more of the industry’s profit pool.
Financial engineering cannot substitute for intellectual and human capital investment.
TRANSFORM OR DIE.
Don’t have a strong view, but you definitely better price the right tail as well as the left for $SPCX.
These numbers are just mindbending.
Getting my attention $NFLX
NETFLIX $NFLX Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $12.56B (Est. $12.59B) 🔴; +13% YoY
🔹 EPS: $0.80 (Est. $0.79) 🟢; +11% YoY
🔹 Oper Margin: 33.4%; -70 bps YoY
🔹 FCF: $1.53B (Est. $2.72B) 🔴; -33% YoY
Q3’26 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $12.86B (Est. $13.01B) 🔴; +12% YoY
🔹 EPS: $0.82 (Est. $0.84) 🔴
🔹 Operating Income: $4.27B (Est. $4.36B) 🔴
🔹 Operating Margin: 33.2% (Est. 33.5%) 🔴
Narrows FY26 Outlook:
🔹 Revenue: $51.0B-$51.4B (Est. $51.41B) 🔴
🔹 Revenue Growth: +13%-14% (Prior: +12%-14%)
🔹 Operating Margin: 31.5% (Est. 31.7%) 🔴
🔹 FCF: ~$12.5B (Est. $13.09B) 🔴
🔹 Advertising Revenue: ~$3.0B; roughly 2x YoY
Regional Revenue:
🔹 UCAN: $5.43B; +10% YoY
🔹 EMEA: $4.03B; +14% YoY
🔹 LATAM: $1.58B; +21% YoY
🔹 APAC: $1.51B; +16% YoY
Other Q2 Metrics:
🔹 Operating Income: $4.19B; +11% YoY
🔹 Net Income: $3.40B; +9% YoY
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $1.74B; -28% YoY
🔹 H1 View Hours: >97B; +2% YoY
🔹 Share Repurchases: $4.7B; largest quarter to date
Key Updates:
🔸 Q2 FCF was pressured by higher cash tax payments, partly related to the WBD termination fee.
🔸 GenAI workflows were used in roughly 300 titles in 2026, primarily in post-production.
🔸 Netflix will move its What We Watched report to an annual Q1 publication starting in 2027.
🔸 Recent price increases performed in line with the company’s expectations.
Comments:
🔸 “Our financial performance remains solid and we’re on track to meet our objectives for the year.”
$NVDA FY'28 EPS estimates have risen ~25% over the past 60 days. Yet the stock is basically flat.
Now trades <14x FY'28 earnings, and MSD FCF yield.
Exponential change is hard for all to comprehend.
But the numbers don't lie.
Interesting, again.
I think $NVDA is starting to get pretty interesting again. Jensen told you where this company is going, sell-side is materially off yet again.
Yet beta took it down.
Hard to want more exposure, but a good crack would want me to slightly tilt it.
Watch the Periphery.
Know who you’re fighting.
Cannabis has far more powerful enemies outside the industry than inside it.
Big interests oppose cannabis for reasons MOST of the world considers common sense.
Yet somehow, an industry fighting for its own survival finds endless energy to tear itself apart with petty bullshit.
$GLAS has spoken.
"We have turned off the ATM."
globenewswire.com/news-relea…
3/
$GLAS raised $28.1MM in Q3, issuing ~7.1MM shares:
• ATM: 2.22MM shares at $8.11, raising $18MM. By definition, had to occur July/August
• Warrants: $10.1MM (prior knowledge)
4/
My free advice to $GLAS BOD and mgmt now that you're cleansed is to have 100% participation in buying your stock. With your own capital.
Not a toin coss. But a real demonstration of confidence.
