A quick reality check on the recurring “the Baltics are next – we’re doomed” narrative. 🔹 Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are not bystanders waiting to see what others do. Any Russian incursion would first face Baltic forces. “Limited incursion” scenarios often intentionally overlook this basic point. 🔹 We have spent years preparing - and learning from Ukraine - for exactly these threats. Little green men, border incidents, sabotage – none of this would come as a surprise. 🔹 Article 3 comes before Article 5. We have to be able to defend ourselves, and we are building that capacity. If we fight, we will not fight alone. I have no doubt about that. 🔹 Allied commitments are very real. Germany is deploying a full brigade to Lithuania. Canada leads NATO forces in Latvia, the UK in Estonia. Allied jets patrol Baltic airspace. And shoot Russian drones. 🔹 This does not mean everything is fine. There are capability gaps, and European governments have good reasons to warn about a higher risk of escalation. But there is a big difference between taking the threat seriously and declaring the Baltics doomed. Anonymous social-media accounts and emotion-driven headlines predicting inevitable defeat do not improve deterrence. They play into the aggressor’s hands.