Equity Research | Reverse DCF | ERP & Risk Analysis Finding Alpha in Mispriced Expectations Not Investment Advice
Joined August 2009
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Vadhanabong (Pek Alpha Research) retweeted
ถ้าใครที่เคยติดตั้ง Expansion ใน GG Chrome และ Edge ตาม 19 รายชื่อนี้ให้ไปถอนการติดตั้ง เพราะส่วนขยายพวกนี้ฝังมัลแวร์ เพื่อขโมยข้อมูล Wallet รหัสผ่าน และประวัติเว็บ แก้ไขโดยเข้า chrome://extensions หรือหน้า Extensions ของ Edge เพื่อตรวจรายชื่อที่ติดตั้งอยู่ ถอนส่วนขยายที่ตรงกับรายการนี้ แล้วเปลี่ยนรหัสผ่านของบัญชีที่เคย Login ผ่านเบราว์เซอร์ช่วงที่มีส่วนขยายดังกล่าว
©️®️ notebookspec
Vadhanabong (Pek Alpha Research) retweeted
1/5 $ZTS @ $120 - Crisis or Opportunity?
📊 P/E 18x (vs 5Y avg 28x)
🐕 Implied growth 2.6% vs hist 8%
🤔 Market pricing catastrophe?
🐂 Companion trend, GLP-1 pets = $175
🐻 China collapse, Generic wave = $120
Deep dive 👇
#ZTS #Zoetis #AnimalHealth
Vadhanabong (Pek Alpha Research) retweeted
1/5 $KO @ $77 - Quality or Trap?
📊 P/E 24x (vs 5Y avg 21x)
🥤 Implied growth 4.8% vs hist 2-3%
🤔 Market pricing perfection?
🐂 EM boom, pricing power = $95
🐻 GLP-1, compression = $52
Deep dive 👇
#KO #CocaCola #Valuation
Vadhanabong (Pek Alpha Research) retweeted
1/5 $FDX @ $359 - Turnaround or Trap?
📊 Market Cap $86B (P/E 21x)
✂️ DRIVE: $4B savings, One FedEx
🤔 Question: Execution or Hope?
🐂 Margin 8%, Volume rebound = $420
🐻 DRIVE fails, Recession = $190
Deep dive 👇
#FDX #FedEx #Restructuring
Vadhanabong (Pek Alpha Research) retweeted
$ASML @ $1,368 - Monopoly priced right? (1/5)
📊 Market Cap €500B (P/E 38x)
🔬 100% EUV share, €36B backlog
🤔 Question: AI cycle peak or sustain?
🐂 AI supercycle, High-NA ramp = $1,800
🐻 China ban, semi downturn = $1,000
Deep dive 👇
#ASML #EUV #Monopoly #Semiconductor
Vadhanabong (Pek Alpha Research) retweeted
$AMD @ $190.95 - NVIDIA alternative? (1/5)
📊 Market Cap $310B (P/E 28x)
🚀 Revenue +34%, Data Center +32%
🤔 Question: 2nd place or challenger?
🐂 AI share 15%, margin 22% = $280
🐻 NVIDIA 90% share, margin 14% = $155
Deep dive 👇
#AMD #Semiconductor #AI #DataCenter
Vadhanabong (Pek Alpha Research) retweeted
$SNOW @ $109.42 - Deep value? (1/5)
📊 Market Cap $36B (P/S 13x)
📉 Down 50%+ from highs
🤔 Question: Growth scare or real?
🐂 Growth 25%, NRR 120% = $220
🐻 Slowdown 12%, churn = $80
Deep dive 👇
#SNOW #Snowflake #DataCloud #SaaS
Vadhanabong (Pek Alpha Research) retweeted
$BABA @ $144 - Deep value? (1/5)
📊 Market Cap $345B (P/E 16x)
💰 Cash $80B = 23% of value
🤔 Question: Turnaround or trap?
🐂 Margin 15%, cloud 25% = $180
🐻 PPD wins, margin 8% = $95
Deep dive 👇
#BABA #Alibaba #ChinaTech #Value
Vadhanabong (Pek Alpha Research) retweeted
$HON @ $240.88 - Spin-off play? (1/5)
📊 Market Cap $153B (P/E 23x)
🚀 Aerospace spin-off Q3 2026
🤔 Question: Value unlock or trap?
🐂 Spin success, ROE 28% = $290
🐻 Stranded costs, execution risk = $200
Deep dive 👇
#HON #Honeywell #SpinOff #Industrial
Vadhanabong (Pek Alpha Research) retweeted
$FCX @ $67.88 - Supercycle priced in? (1/5)
📊 Market Cap $97B (P/E 25x)
⚡ Copper $6.00/lb (record high)
🤔 Question: Sustain or spike?
🐂 Cu $6.50, Grasberg 1Mt = $85
🐻 Cu $4.00, recession = $48
Deep dive 👇
#FCX #Copper #Supercycle #Commodities
Vadhanabong (Pek Alpha Research) retweeted
$CAT @ $766 - Tech valuation for tractors? (1/5)
📊 Market Cap $347B (P/E 40x)
🚜 Record backlog $51B but...
🤔 Question: Is AI boom sustainable?
🐂 AI/data center 5yr+ = $850
🐻 Cyclical peak, tariff hit = $550
Deep dive 👇
#CAT #Caterpillar #AI #HeavyEquipment
Vadhanabong (Pek Alpha Research) retweeted
$COST @ $985 - Quality trap? (1/5)
📊 Market Cap $418B (P/E 49x)
📉 Best biz in retail but priced for perfection
🤔 Question: Is 9% growth forever realistic?
🐂 Int'l expansion, Gen Z loyalty = $1,200
🐻 Multiple compression, renewal drop = $750
Deep dive 👇
#COST #Costco
Vadhanabong (Pek Alpha Research) retweeted
$UNH @ $288 - Medicare meltdown? (1/5)
📊 Market Cap $265B (P/E 12x)
📉 Down 45% from highs, MA Star Ratings cut
🤔 Question: Is this cyclical pain or structural decline?
🐂 Utilization normalizes, Optum grows = $500
🐻 MA exodus, margin compression = $200
Deep dive 👇
#UNH
Vadhanabong (Pek Alpha Research) retweeted
$LLY @ $1,016 - Oral drug war lost to Novo? (1/5)
📊 Mkt cap $960B (P/E 185x)
📉 Novo got FDA approval for oral semaglutide first
🤔 Question: Can LLY catch up with Orforglipron 2027?
🐂 $100B sales, oral success = $1,200
🐻 Market share loss, pricing war = $450
Deep dive 👇
Vadhanabong (Pek Alpha Research) retweeted
$NVDA @ $182.81 - Rubin จะสร้าง supercycle จริงไหม? (1/5)
📊 Market Cap $4.48T (P/S 34x)
📉 ขึ้น 600% จาก low $40 (2 ปี)
🤔 คำถาม: AI chip demand peak หรือยัง?
🐂 Rubin + 75% share = $150
🐻 Competition + AI winter = $40
วิเคราะห์ต่อ 👇
#NVDA #AI #Semiconductor
Vadhanabong (Pek Alpha Research) retweeted
$META @ $639.77 - Is the AI bet worth it? (1/5)
📊 Market Cap $1.63T (P/S 9.9x)
📉 Up 610% from low $90 (2 years)
🤔 Question: Will Llama + AI actually monetize?
🐂 AI ads + Smart glasses = $800
🐻 TikTok + RL loss $17B = $350
Deep dive 👇
#META #AI #SocialMedia
