@sovietologist

Policy Researcher @RANDCorporation. Work on nuclear weapons and warfare, Russia, and artificial intelligence. Retweet ≠ endorse. Opinions my own.

 Venice, Los Angeles
rand.org/about/people/g/geist_edward.html
Joined June 2015
  • Tweets293
  • Following3
  • Followers4.6K
40Media
Exciting news! My book _Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare_ is now out in paperback!
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Jim Mitre
@jim_mitre8 Jul 2025
A new @RANDCorporation paper by @sovietologist argues that even the most advanced AGI will be constrained by thermodynamics, information theory, and computational complexity. rand.org/pubs/working_papers…

What Even Superintelligent Computers Can’t Do

The authors outline an approach for estimating the likelihood that artificial general intelligence (AGI) will be able to attain a particular technology or capability given fundamental limits imposed...

rand.org
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Układ Sił
@Ukladsil28 Oct 2024
🔥Edward Geist from the RAND Corporation discusses the nuclear strategies of 🇷🇺Russia, the 🇺🇸United States, and 🇨🇳China, as well as the role of nuclear power in the era of artificial intelligence. The interview also covers the nuclear policy that 🇵🇱Poland and 🇺🇦Ukraine should adopt. Wersja z polski lektorem już wkrótce. 🔥youtu.be/ctaToIs5IsQ @sovietologist @RANDCorporation
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RAND
@RANDCorporation8 Apr 2024
This spring, the U.S. and China are expected to start talks on AI safety. Expectations are low, says RAND's @sovietologist. But early, "unproductive" talks aren't a total loss—as illustrated by nuclear arms negotiations during the Cold War. bit.ly/4cIVcIN

Building a Foundation for Strategic Stability with China on AI

In an atmosphere of deepening mutual suspicion, trying to engage with China on military uses of artificial intelligence may seem pointless. But if negotiations go somewhere, U.S. security might be...

rand.org
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RAND
@RANDCorporation24 Mar 2024
"If I had to pick one single problem that causes me the most anxiety, it's North Korea," RAND's Edward Geist tells @1A. North Korea may build up its arsenal and become "a kind of super rogue" that doesn't play by the same rules as major nuclear powers. the1a.org/segments/the-risin…

The rising threat of nuclear war

Nukes have been in the news these past few years.

the1a.org
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RAND
@RANDCorporation22 Mar 2024
What does today's nuclear landscape look like? How could AI affect nuclear warfare? And what role do scholars play in understanding (and mitigating) ever-changing threats? RAND's @sovietologist discusses on @1A: the1a.org/segments/the-risin… (starts at 29:55)

The rising threat of nuclear war

Nukes have been in the news these past few years.

the1a.org
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💥📚 I read this #book by Edward Geist a few days ago and it is #excellent. Thank you very much for writing it @sovietologist. 🔴global.oup.com/academic/prod…
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Uh oh. Edward Geist, “Deterrence Under Uncertainty, Oxford, 2023, p 6
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RAND
@RANDCorporation22 Dec 2023
We're looking for the next generation of thought leaders on nuclear security. Applications for the Stanton Nuclear Security Fellows Program are now open. Learn more and apply by January 19: bit.ly/3Nie2LX

Stanton Nuclear Security Fellows Program

The Stanton Nuclear Security Fellows Program stimulates the development of the next generation of thought leaders on nuclear security related topics by supporting interdisciplinary research that will...

rand.org
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Edward Geist retweeted
Coda Story
@CodaStory12 Dec 2023
Sci-fi has convinced us that a Terminator-like Skynet is closer on the horizon than it actually is. It's a great story premise, says analyst Edward Geist. “But it’s also the case that there’s effectively no one who thinks of this as a great idea.” #AI codastory.com/authoritarian-…

When deepfakes go nuclear - Coda Story

Governments already use fake data to confuse their enemies. What if they start doing this in the nuclear realm?

codastory.com
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Replying to @RANDCorporation @sovietologist @NPR
Great book. Changed my perspective on the most effective use of AI for nuclear deterrence. Highly recommend.
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Replying to @sovietologist
I have my copy!
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Replying to @nprscottsimon
@nprscottsimon interviewed me about my new book Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare npr.org/2023/12/09/121838609…

A new book asks if AI can cause the kinds of nuclear disasters seen in movies

NPR's Scott Simon speaks to Edward Geist, a policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, about his new book, "Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare."

npr.org
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Replying to @nprscottsimon
@nprscottsimon interviewed me about my new book Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare npr.org/2023/12/09/121838609…

A new book asks if AI can cause the kinds of nuclear disasters seen in movies

NPR's Scott Simon speaks to Edward Geist, a policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, about his new book, "Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare."

npr.org
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I'd like to thank everyone who has bought the book already, as it is currently sold out in the U.S.! Oxford University Press assures me that more copies are being shipped over from the UK global.oup.com/academic/prod…
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Ahead: @sovietologist on his new book about the effect of AI on nuclear deterrence. And the works of a great, rediscovered surrealist painter, Leonor Fini.
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Now out in the U.S.!
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My new book Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare is out in the U.S. today! global.oup.com/academic/prod…
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I began working on this project in 2017 and I would like to express my gratitude to everyone who helped bring it to fruition, especially the Smith Richardson Foundation for supporting it with a Strategy and Policy Fellowship.
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ICYMI: Ankit Panda and Edward Geist discuss U.S. nuclear force planning and the need to think about adversary perceptions. Listen to the full episode here: bit.ly/40QEcL7 @nktpnd @sovietologist
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Ankit Panda@nktpnd21 Nov 2023
I enjoyed this chat with @sovietologist. Separately, his new book on artificial intelligence and nuclear war is the finest thing I've read recently on the subject.
Ankit Panda@nktpnd21 Nov 2023
New episode of Thinking the Unthinkable for @WarOnTheRocks out now: @sovietologist joined me to discuss how the US should and shouldn't think about force planning given China's nuclear build-up warontherocks.com/episode/th…

Force Planning for Two Nuclear Adversaries

warontherocks.com
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