NEAR flow analysis đ
Up to Sept 18, the move higher was supported by both Spot & Futures CVD.
After that, the picture changed. I wanted to write earlier but time was not on my side.
Futures CVD started falling aggressively while Spot CVD remained relatively supportive and price kept grinding higher.
This looks more like futures shorts being used as a hedge against spot exposure than genuine bearish positioning.
Then around Sept 26, the structure deteriorated:
Spot CVD â
Futures CVD â
OI â
while price still tried to push higher.
That late rally lacked real flow confirmation.
Now weâre finally seeing price catch up with the selling pressure.
Really interesting
near:native could reduce inflation again, one year after the first halving
@sal_ternullo (from @svrn_ai) has just published a governance discussion post on NEAR forum that aims to reduce NEAR issuance from 2.5% to 1.6%.
it also opens talks for a FIXED SUPPLY, which is interesting
in October 2025 we voted and approved to cut NEAR's tail emission in half (from 5% to 2.5%). i have been a validator on @NEARProtocol (the permissionless network) ever since -- price has more than doubled in this time
reducing inflation to 1.6% makes a lot of sense and doing it gradually, per epoch, over 24 months, makes A LOT of sense
i would easily support this first part and i'll post more about it
the second part is interesting, but i have a few concerns i would like to discuss to the community first. overall, i love the approach (first 1.6%, gradually over 24 months, then consider the fixed supply)
both Sal and SVRN have been solid contributors to the NEAR ecosystem that i respect a lot as an independent contributor and governance delegate -- huge respect for them!
interesting times ahead for NEAR, the permissionless, programmable money.
MultiversX is back online. Things happen, and what matters most is how you manage to overcome the challenges along the way. I know this wasnât an easy issue to fix. - So the code is fixed, maybe now they will try to fix also the other problems that are not code related :).
the chain is back.
it was a force major, an exploited vm endpoint with the combination of a built in function. vm though built in function is atomic and it was not. technically both of them were written by me, audited multiple times, formally verified too.
the exploit was in a code which entered in the mainnet at barnard release. we run import db since that release and no other exploits were recorded. the exploiting wasm contract was purposefully built for this, writing directly wasm, not using the mvx SDKs.
what we did actually to restore the chain?
we made a hardfork, technically restarting the chain with the new code from a moment before the hack. in this way, no tokens were minted, the hack simply did not happen from the perspective of the chain's history.
all the processes are slowly being restarted, we are monitoring all the dapps, safeprice and until now, everything seems fine.
we made this hardfork code without any blacklist / whitelist / centralisation aspect. all the coordination with validators was in the telegram channel, and everyone supported it. exchanges too, they support this hardfork.
these were a couple of super hard days.
thanks for everything.
I donât want to pile on or celebrate whatâs happening with MultiversX. We shouldnât rejoice when others have problems.
But this raises a serious question: what happens when large businesses depend on thousands of onchain transactions, and an exploit forces legitimate activity to be reconciled or potentially rolled back?
That needs to be solved. Weâre talking about multiple companies potentially being affected at the same time.
A very good explanation of what happened recently on MultiversX mainnet.
MultiversX mainnet is paused after a VM-level atomicity exploit
what we know:
⢠an actor exploited a VM bug
⢠produced invalid state changes
⢠chain deliberately stopped in validator coordination (>24h)
⢠fix is on a shadow fork, ETA: "next few days" (@beniaminmincu)
đ§ľâ
MultiversX network is down. It seems someone managed to mint 41 mil elrond-erd-2:native xoxno.com/profile/erd1kwvkchâŚ
Could it be?
Breaking: Michael Burry says OpenAI and Anthropic are faking the AI warnings due to slow growth ahead of IPOs
Below are his reasonings:
1. LLMs are not AI and won't be AGI. There is nothing AI to slow down.
2. Competition is coming up fast, slowing benefits incumbents.
3. IPOs need hype & puffery; "we are so awesome it could become dangerous" is hype & puffery
4. Cover for real uncontrollable slowing growth as IPOs look to be pushed out
Solver retweeted
Something interesting happened in AI this weekend.
Dario Amodei called for potentially slowing or âpacingâ frontier AI development. Sam Altman backed greater independent oversight, and Elon Musk responded with three words: âDario is right.â
When some of the biggest competitors in an industry suddenly start agreeing, I always want to know what changed.
There are four things I think are worth considering.
Fear: The simplest explanation may be the right one. These guys are closer to frontier AI than almost anyone, and perhaps what they're seeing around autonomous agents, coding and AI helping develop AI is genuinely concerning them. Capabilities may simply be moving faster than expected.
Coordination: This is where game theory comes in. Anthropic can't slow down while OpenAI, Google and xAI keep accelerating. But if everyone agrees to slow down, everyone potentially benefits. Independent evaluators also create something incredibly important in an arms race: a way of checking whether everyone else is actually playing by the same rules.
Moat: More regulation might genuinely make AI safer, but it also raises the cost of competing. OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta and xAI can afford huge safety teams, independent evaluations, cybersecurity and compliance. The next 50 challengers might not. Regulation can protect the public while simultaneously protecting the incumbents.
Economics: This might be the most interesting one for markets. We've just watched one of the largest CapEx races in history across GPUs, data centres, power and networking. Nobody can independently stop spending because they risk falling behind. But if everyone slows together, suddenly the economics change. It could also give these companies more time to monetise what they've already built before spending another extraordinary amount chasing the next leap.
What do you think is really driving this fear, coordination, protecting the moat, or economics?
As alway's Patience, React, Don't Predict.
Good read
We Must Pace the Frontier: Iâve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.
Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. Weâll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess modelsâ alignment during training.
You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-mustâŚ
Solver retweeted
đ¨BREAKING: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is calling on the entire AI industry to SLOW DOWN.
He warns a misaligned AI swarm could "take over the entire internet" within 6 to 12 months, potentially causing hundreds of BILLIONS in damage.
"AI has been advancing drastically faster, driven primarily by AI's growing ability to build the next generation of AI."
Anthropic is unilaterally giving third-party evaluators permanent, employee-level access to its systems to verify safety.
Amodei proposed a three-step plan: embedded evaluators at every AI company, coordinated pacing across democracies, and a global agreement with China.
This comes the same week Anthropic disclosed four AI hacking incidents and a researcher resigned saying the industry is "gambling with our lives."
Because they can
Wintermute is dumping $ETH!
Over the past 3 hours, #Wintermute has deposited 61,847 $ETH ($160.3M) into #Binance and #Coinbase.
arkm.com/explorer/address/0xâŚ
The 57k EGLD sent to Binance yesterday explorer.multiversx.com/accoâŚ
Out of curiosity I verified my old scripts.
Interesting addreses that undelegated - the recent biggest spikes:
erd1l6uv6eh6kxt7tcupg7v07fg3fe28782g2f9v8hla2ette5rxmejq8q8y0c - 57k EGLD - this has connections with the address I posted yesterday: xitter.cf/solver_cs/status/20948âŚ
erd1daqlaezxx22rzyxnqx5ddkykm5ajelt0hetjnstm7rxqg78xqusqazv9ms - 80k EGLD
erd1eu4zsxqva66hedfg25mrkhe7a5rz6z84lzcw0zmr6t6chsmyr3js47x6s8 - 14k EGLD
Solver retweeted
The best financial engineering of all time: build a company that sells a dream, a BS story. It doesnât really matter whether the stock or coin keeps growing, because the real game is to sell your share, take the money, and use it to build or buy another company.
Then you sell more BS, keep investors entertained and believing in the story, increase the valuation, sell more of your shares, and use that money to buy or start different businesses.
It doesnât even matter if the first company never makes money or never fulfills the promises it originally sold. That was never really the point.
The point is to keep the investors entertained, keep them believing, keep the narrative alive, and continuously turn that belief into liquidity that you can use to build the next thing.
Out of curiosity I verified my old scripts.
Interesting addreses that undelegated - the recent biggest spikes:
erd1l6uv6eh6kxt7tcupg7v07fg3fe28782g2f9v8hla2ette5rxmejq8q8y0c - 57k EGLD - this has connections with the address I posted yesterday: xitter.cf/solver_cs/status/20948âŚ
erd1daqlaezxx22rzyxnqx5ddkykm5ajelt0hetjnstm7rxqg78xqusqazv9ms - 80k EGLD
erd1eu4zsxqva66hedfg25mrkhe7a5rz6z84lzcw0zmr6t6chsmyr3js47x6s8 - 14k EGLD
Kind reminder. When you are in profit, you know what you have to do, they won't wait for you. NFA explorer.multiversx.com/accoâŚ
