@socscipredict

The SSPP enables researchers to collect and contribute to forecasts of academic studies. Tweets by @UCBITSS @evavivalt @socscipredict.bsky.social

 Berkeley, CA
socialscienceprediction.org
Joined July 2020
  • Tweets331
  • Following69
  • Followers832
41Media
What types of questions can be forecast on the #SocSciPrediction Platform? How can the SSPP help address publication bias and quantify how much we learn from a given study, including null results? Watch our short promo video to find out. youtu.be/Ge5LLX7J0HY
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📣 What types of poverty reduction programs will people in middle-income countries support? @fgerard_BE and coauthors invite your predictions! 🗓️ Close: Nov 11 🕐 Time: 15 min 📚 Field: Dev Econ socialscienceprediction.org/…

Fighting Poverty: International Attitudes Toward Poverty Reduction Programs

Using a randomized survey experiment, we study public attitudes toward poverty reduction programmes in eight middle-income countries. This short survey will ask you to predict which types of programs...

socialscienceprediction.org
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📣 Interested in how AI memory influences user trust, prediction accuracy, and belief updating? @michaelhthaler and Ze Wang invite your predictions! 💰 Incentives available 🗓️ Close: Nov 14 🕐 Time: 15 min 📚 Field: Econ socialscienceprediction.org/…

AI Memory, Confirmation Bias, and Polarization

This survey asks for your predictions about an experiment on AI memory and belief updating. We recently recruited 1,000 U.S. participants for an experiment where they made predictions about Donald...

socialscienceprediction.org
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📣 How accurately do consumers perceive prices and inflation? Hubert Wu invites your predictions on his study of adult survey respondents in the UK! 🗓️ Close: Nov 8 🕐 Time: 5 min 📚 Field: Econ socialscienceprediction.org/…

A Behavioural Cost-of-Living Index

The cost of living underpins modern welfare measurement but assumes fully rational consumers. In this study, I embed bounded rationality into classical index-number concepts, yielding a behavioural...

socialscienceprediction.org
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📣 What are the mechanisms behind the success of Ultra-Poor Graduation Programs (UPGs) in Malawi? @MoritzPoll invites your predictions! 🗓️ Close: Oct 31 🕐 Time: 20 min 📚 Field: Dev Econ socialscienceprediction.org/…

Mechanisms Behind Poverty Graduation Programs

The study explores the mechanisms behind the success of Ultra-Poor Graduation Programs (UPGs), aiming to reduce extreme poverty through a livelihood intervention that bundles monthly cash transfers,...

socialscienceprediction.org
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📣 New on the SSPP: what are the effects of two alternative models of teacher training in Tanzania? Konstantin Büchel, Lukas Hauck, and Tim Stettler invite your predictions! 🕐 Time: 10 min 📚 Field: Dev Econ 🗓️ Close: Nov 6 socialscienceprediction.org/…

Fidelity vs. Scale: Delivering In-service Teacher Training through NGO and Government Teacher...

This survey collects forecasts from researchers and practitioners about the effects of an in-service teacher training program delivered through two alternative models in Tanzania. No personally...

socialscienceprediction.org
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📣 How do interactions between small business managers and bank loan officers impact loan applications in Pakistan? Emma Zhang invites your predictions! 💰 Financial incentives available 🕓 Time: 15 min 📚 Field: Econ 🗓️ Close: Oct 1 socialscienceprediction.org/…

Do small businesses avoid the bank, or do loan officers refuse to lend

Improving small-business access to bank loans is often cited as a way of accelerating economic growth. Even though government subsidies for small business loans exist in over 100 low and middle-inc...

socialscienceprediction.org
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Closing today - last call to make predictions on the impact of journal editors on the availability of replication materials!
Social Science Prediction Platform@socscipredictAug 31
📣 Does involving journal editors in replication material requests impact the availability of such materials? @FitzgeraldJack_, Giovanni Orlando, and Arjen van Witteloostuijn invite your predictions! 🕐Time: 15 min 🗓️ Closes: Sept 15 📚 Field: Economics socialscienceprediction.org/…

The Impact of Journal Involvement on Availability of Replication Materials

I subject the models defending 135 null claims in 81 articles recently published in top economics journals to equivalence testing, which assesses whether an estimate is significantly bounded within a...

socialscienceprediction.org
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📣 How does the value per added worker compare between manufacturing firms in the US and India? @I_Am_NickBloom and coauthors invite your predictions. 🕐 Time: 5 min 🗓️ Close: Sept 30 📚 Field: Econ socialscienceprediction.org/…

Manufacturing Productivity: U.S. vs. India

We measure the labor productivity of manufacturing firms in the United States and India using establishment microdata (the U.S. Census of Manufactures; India's Annual Survey of Industries and...

socialscienceprediction.org
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📣 How do decision-making frictions, like paying overdraft fees, aggregate to affect inequality? @sdellavi, @timdesilva, and Rohan Jha invite predictions across decision making domains! 🕐 Time: 20 min 🗓️ Close: Oct 31 📚 Field: Econ socialscienceprediction.org/…

Behavioral Inequality

A large body of literature in economics has studied inequality in income and wealth, documenting its evolution, analyzing its determinants, and evaluating policies that could reduce it. The vast...

socialscienceprediction.org
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📣 Does involving journal editors in replication material requests impact the availability of such materials? @FitzgeraldJack_, Giovanni Orlando, and Arjen van Witteloostuijn invite your predictions! 🕐Time: 15 min 🗓️ Closes: Sept 15 📚 Field: Economics socialscienceprediction.org/…

The Impact of Journal Involvement on Availability of Replication Materials

I subject the models defending 135 null claims in 81 articles recently published in top economics journals to equivalence testing, which assesses whether an estimate is significantly bounded within a...

socialscienceprediction.org
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📣 Closing on Monday! @amandaegeiser and @squig invite your predictions of whether "head" vs. "heart" manipulations affect Prolific participants' likelihood of making a hypothetical risky choice. 🕐 Time: 5 min 🗓️ Close: Aug 31 📚 Field: Psychology socialscienceprediction.org/…

Risk Aversion – "Following Your Head" vs. "Following Your Heart"

We plan to conduct an experiment in which we ask Prolific participants (N=800) to make a hypothetical risky choice by either "following their head" or "following their heart." We will ask you to...

socialscienceprediction.org
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Social Science Prediction Platform retweeted
VoxDev@vox_devJul 20
🆕 Can forecasting social science make experiments better? Today on VoxDev, @sdellavi (@berkeleyecon) & @evavivalt (@UofT) discuss why research forecasts overestimate effects, and how to correct and reweight them: voxdev.org/topic/education/c…

Can forecasting social science make experiments better?

Evidence from 100 Social Science Prediction Platform projects shows that research forecasts are too optimistic on average, but still predictive enough to improve study design when they are combined,...

voxdev.org
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📣Closing Friday: how effective are strategies for promoting the completion of voter registration checks in the US? Check out this survey and the other 6 currently open on the platform! Craig Fox, Megan Weber, and Craig Brimhall invite predictions: socialscienceprediction.org/…

Field Experiment Promoting Voter Registration Checks

We conducted a field experiment that examined the effectiveness of various messaging strategies for promoting the completion of voter registration checks in an online setting in the United States. We...

socialscienceprediction.org
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🚨 3 surveys close this week! SSPP teams invite forecasts on: Closing Sun, June 27: Capital and Labor Income Mobility - 5 min Closing Tues, June 30: Complementarity from multiple interventions - 10 min Employers’ beliefs about hybrid work - 15 min socialscienceprediction.org/…

Social Science Prediction Platform

Predict research results, improve social science.

socialscienceprediction.org
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🚨 5 projects are currently open for forecasts on the SSPP, including a project closing today on overconfidence in people and LLMs! Make your predictions here: socialscienceprediction.org/…

Social Science Prediction Platform

Predict research results, improve social science.

socialscienceprediction.org
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🚨 3 surveys close Sept 28 - 30! Get your predictions in by the end of the month: socialscienceprediction.org/… 1⃣Digital Mental Health: Evidence from Mexico 2⃣Aid, Economic Recovery and Social Cohesion in Post-War Iraq 3⃣Informality, Incidence, and Pass-through of VAT Exemptions

Social Science Prediction Platform

Predict research results, improve social science.

socialscienceprediction.org
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📢 New on the SSPP: does an extra year of preschool improve academic and socioeconomic skills? @IzRamin et al. welcome your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/… ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Econ, Psych 🗓️Closes: Oct 15

Does an extra year of preschool improve academic and socioemotional skills?

We conducted a large-scale field experiment in Finland that advanced the start of mandatory preschool by one year. The RCT is authorized under temporary legislation and will inform an active policy...

socialscienceprediction.org
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📣 Interested in making more forecasts? Want to get paid for doing so? Apply for the SSPP Forecasting Panel! Panelists receive $400 a year, with an additional $300 bonus for high accuracy. Apply here: socialscienceprediction.org/… @CEGA_UC @evavivalt @sdellavi

Apply to Join our SSPP Forecasting Panel 2.0!

Would you like to stay informed about the latest developments in social science research, assess your forecasting accuracy, and receive financial compensation for your participation in the process?...

socialscienceprediction.org
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🚨3 surveys close Sunday, Aug 31! socialscienceprediction.org/… 1️⃣Role of monthly office days in fully remote work 2️⃣Correlation b/n statistical significance & media attention -💰incentives based on forecast accuracy 3️⃣Effects of providing information to potential workers @evavivalt

Social Science Prediction Platform

Predict research results, improve social science.

socialscienceprediction.org
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New on the SSPP: is there a correlation between statistical significance and media attention? Lester Lusher, Sunmi Jung, and Brianna Funderburk welcome your predictions: socialscienceprediction.org/… 💰Incentives based on accuracy ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Economics 🗓️Closes: Aug 31

Statistical Significance and Media Attention

This study analyzes the correlation between statistical significance and media attention. We have coded results from a random sample of 1,000 National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working...

socialscienceprediction.org
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