I've been wanting to share some data with you guys for a while to help people with their own bets. I've put together a couple of options to see which you prefer. Option A: team form and stats, or Option B: key player matchups. I'll drop a poll below, but any feedback is also welcome.

Como vs Man United ⚽️ Had a few messages for these, so here you go! Best of luck 🫡

Which do you prefer? Any feedback welcome.

Man City vs PSG ✅ Vitinha gets the job done in the 94th minute!! The away from home angle strikes again with him. Well done to those that followed 👍

Good morning all, I'm bumping the UCL goals analysis I did before the first round as it still stands true and the group has grown a lot since then. 13 of 18 Round 1 games went over 2.5 and 11 went over 3.5. We ended up 1 goal short of landing the goals acca. Another note is that UEFA are trying to let the game flow more a bit like the World Cup. This is pulled from their meeting notes from July: "Reducing unnecessary delays while preserving the excitement and quality of matches. This package of measures effectively addresses situations where time is wasted (goal kicks, throw-ins, substitutions, injuries), so guaranteeing longer time with the ball in play" Round 1 cards median was 3.50 and 9 of 18 games had 3 or fewer cards. Just be careful if you're thinking of betting card overs, players to be booked etc. Not saying don't do it but just be mindful. This directive should also increase attacking stats - goals, corners, shots etc, which is what i'll be focusing on. Best of luck today 🫡

UCL Goals Analysis ⚽️🏆 This has taken me a while to dig into because I had to pull the Opta event data, as the game-state numbers aren't widely available, but the findings are very interesting. Goals are up since the format changed. The last five group stages averaged 3.04 goals per game. The two league phases have gone 3.26 and then 3.38. It's not just goals either. xG, Over 2.5, Over 3.5 and BTTS all rose again last season, so the underlying numbers are backing it up rather than it being a fluke of finishing. One of the reasons, I think, is what happens late on when games are level. With 24 of 36 teams going through, and the top 8 skipping the play-off round entirely, a draw doesn't get you much. In both seasons every top-8 side finished on 16 points or more, and 9-11 points from eight games has been roughly the qualification mark. Most of the big sides also have a few very winnable games in there. The upside of turning one point into three is a lot bigger than the downside of losing the one. There are some signs in the late-goal data to back that theory up. Across 288 league-phase games: At 80 minutes, 52% of level games produced at least one more goal, compared with 41% of games where someone was already ahead. At 85 minutes it's 44% vs 32%. So level games aren't fizzling out. They're actually livelier than games where one side is already ahead. And it gets even more interesting as the table takes shape. In the first four rounds, level games at 80 minutes went on to produce another goal 48% of the time, compared with 43% when one team was already ahead. So there's already an uptick for level games early in the league phase, but in the last four rounds, when the points become more important, that gap increases significantly — 56% for level games compared with just 38% when one team is ahead. That certainly looks like teams becoming more willing to go for the win as the table takes shape. The flip side: a 1-0 with five minutes left has produced another goal just 18% of the time. Teams a goal up shut it down; teams that are level don't. Around 40% of all goals have come after the 60th minute in both seasons, which fits with all of this. For comparison, I ran the same analysis across the last two Premier League seasons. At 75 minutes, level PL games actually produced another goal less often than games where one side was ahead — 47% vs 53%. In the Champions League that relationship flips completely: 58% of level games produced another goal, compared with 53% when one side was ahead. The one question mark is how much the top-8 prize is actually worth. PSG have won it back-to-back without finishing in the top 8 either time, while we've also seen some less-fancied, much bigger-priced teams finish in the top 8 and then go deep in the competition — Villa (66/1) and Sporting (150/1) both reached the quarter-finals. Missing the top 8 clearly isn't the disaster the format suggests it should be. But the teams evidently aren't playing like they believe that, and that's what matters for goals. Goals are up, but for me it's important to understand why that might be happening — and this also gives us another potential in-play betting angle this season 🫡

UCL League Performance ⚽️🏆 Most of you probably don't care and just want bets 😂, but others might find it helpful to form their own view. One of the big challenges in the Champions League is working out how teams from different domestic leagues match up against each other, both stylistically and tactically. Some of these are very small samples, so they should be treated with caution, and the strength of schedule won't be identical for every league. But it's still useful for getting a general idea of how each league has performed across the first two seasons of the new format. A few things stand out. The Premier League has dominated, both in terms of results and underlying performance. Germany's results have actually undersold their performances, with German clubs ranking second for xG differential despite averaging only 1.49 points per game. The Netherlands have probably been the biggest disappointment, while Portugal continue to punch above their weight, producing underlying numbers comparable with some of Europe's biggest leagues. That perhaps shouldn't be a huge surprise. Portuguese clubs continue to produce players — and increasingly managers — who make the step up to Europe's biggest leagues, and their Champions League performances suggest the gap may not be as large as it's sometimes perceived. Goals analysis coming soon 🫡

My 2026/27 Betting Plan ⚽️🏆 Everyone bets for different reasons, but having a plan is the most important part. Here's mine, but try to develop your own and think about why you're betting: ▪️ Best Bets The backbone of my betting, which focuses on making long-term profit following a staking plan with a tracked P&L of 5.30% ROI over 1,380 bets. I'll still share a few free each week, but the majority are moving to a members group so I can spend more time on them and increase the volume I put out. Join the free Telegram to get all bets ▶️ t.me/+VLE_iL4DahQ3ZGM0 ▪️ Bet Boosts These will continue the same as the World Cup, where I will highlight the best boosts available. I'll share a few free but more volume will be in a low cost members group just because of the time it takes. ▪️ Accumulators Mainly focused on the Premier League, EFL and Champions League. A teams to win acca and I will be adding a Saturday goals acca (BTTS or Over 2.5) and a mega odds acca, which will combine the win and goals acca. These are small stakes fun bets but will be driven from research done for the best bets. ▪️ Bet Builders I will share these for big games where I see value. These are small stakes fun bets that will mainly target correlated angles from the Best Bets or longshot angles. ▪️ Weekend Challenge *New* I want to run these more frequently this season starting on Friday evening or Saturday lunchtime depending on where I find value. ▪️ In-plays *New* As previously mentioned, I spent last season setting up bot alerts that flag games that meet specific criteria. It'll be run with a proper P&L etc like the Best Bets. Join the inplay group if you want to get involved so this group isn't flooded with notifications ▶️ t.me/+7pooXGGctF9iNzQ0 ▪️ Paid Members Groups *New* Best Bets and Bet Boost groups. Introducing these enables me to go a lot deeper than I currently can for free: full best bet deep dives into all games across the Premier League and Champions League and more volume on the bet boosts — I think there is currently value left on the table. To do that properly takes real time — research, rewatching games, digging into the data — more than I can give while doing everything for free. Adding a paid subscription lets me actually invest that time, and expand from there. 📊 Best Bets — £20/month All bets across the Premier League and Champions League — some out earlier in the week ahead of the market, others added after team news is released. Combined Prem and Champions League ROI sits at 6.03% on match bets alone (8.1% including outrights). Last season specifically, Prem match bets returned 6.96% (13.27% including outrights). 🚀 Boosts — £10/month My verdict on the best bookmaker boosts, not just Super Boosts. Any price boost that is available — what's worth backing, what to leave. Over the World Cup, £10 level stakes across 87 boosts returned £464 profit. P&L Tracker ▶️ bit.ly/SBBestBetsTracker Tap to join ▶️ mymembers.io/soccerbase ▪️ Staking Plan My personal staking plan follows a 100-point bankroll and my focus is on the Best Bets & In-Play P&L while mixing in some fun, entertainment bets for small stakes. Most Best Bets are 1 Point, with the occasional 0.25 or 0.50 Point for higher odds and 1.50 Points for higher-value selections. For the multiples I share (accumulators and bet builders), I'm using small stakes because they are fun bets for entertainment at ~0.10 Points. For example, a £1,000 bankroll would be £10 for 1 point. ▪️ Cash Out The multiples are small stakes for a bit of fun for me, so I'm never cashing out, but I appreciate that everyone bets for different reasons. If you have a Saturday acca each week and want to cash out because it'll get you a free takeaway even though it's technically -EV, then that's absolutely fine. It's your money and your decision. I personally don't cash out unless there is a change in circumstances to an outright bet (change of manager, injuries, etc.). Feel free to drop any questions below. Best of luck to everyone this season. Please remember to gamble responsibly, having a plan will help with that IMO 🫡

Barclays Premier League 2026/27 🏆⚽ Just made this for my home office, so many banging retro club badges.