David (@soberanacap) header
David (@soberanacap) profile picture

Investments @Arete_xyz. Anti-maximalist

Joined December 2011
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Second part of this tweet is interesting. Not just that Hyperliquid is going to get insane levels of distribution but that Druckenmiller is literally saying he is going to be using perps to improve his process, would imagine for price discovery signals outside of trading hours
I am excited to be an investor in trade(xyz) as they partner with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States. As a market participant, I am looking forward to to using their innovative product to enhance my investment process.
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Replying to @soberanacap
The goal we have set internally is to achieve 4x capital velocity, which I think is very doable (90 day sales cycles).
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Only in October did $HYPE begin to accrue value from stablecoins - AQAv2 now accounts for 22% of revenue. Today HIP-3 accounts for 4% of revenue. We believe this will massively increase in the next 18 months with permissioned market deployment being led by ICE and US onshoring
Discussing the news internally today and following parallels can be made. During AQAv2 many proposals were made but ultimately we landed on the best possible outcome which was Circle/Coinbase partnership with majority of reserve yield going to AF. It's in my belief that ICE direct investment and partnership with trade[XYZ] is the equivalent long-tail best outcome for HIP-3/HIP-3* markets. Payward was interesting but this tops the cake. Two of the best long tail outcomes possible for Hyperliquid.
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The GOAT has spoken
I am excited to be an investor in trade(xyz) as they partner with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States. As a market participant, I am looking forward to to using their innovative product to enhance my investment process.
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Hyperliquid
trade[XYZ] launched its first market on Hyperliquid 381 days ago. Today, we are joining forces with ICE, parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, to bring perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to U.S. regulated markets. I don’t usually write long posts, but today merits reflection. For years, builders across this industry have worked to show that open, onchain markets could support price discovery, manage risk, and withstand stress to the standards of traditional market infrastructure, all while staying open when and where those markets aren’t. Our achievements stand on the shoulders of those builders. And today, the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange has chosen to build upon the work of every developer, trader, market maker, and user who took a chance on us and our markets. We share this moment with all of you. Markets are shaped by their participants. A new generation of investors trades from their phones, across asset classes, at any hour of any day. Until Hyperliquid, the right infrastructure for those markets didn’t exist. Building these markets was hard. It took novel approaches to pricing, funding, and risk, refined with real capital at stake, in markets that don’t close. It also meant earning the trust of the people trading on them. We’re honored that the community recognized that effort and responded in kind. That trust is what allowed us to grow our volumes to a ~$1 trillion annualized run rate in just over a year, to help pioneer new instruments like pre-IPO perps, and to earn the confidence of storied institutions like S&P Dow Jones Indices. That’s why ICE has chosen trade[XYZ] as its exclusive partner to bring 24/7 perps to the U.S. Shifts in technology have pushed markets toward greater transparency, better price discovery, and broader access: from the coffee house to the curb exchange, ticker tape to the telephone, the trading floor to digital exchanges. ICE helped write that last chapter. In 1997, Jeff Sprecher bought a small power-trading technology business for $1. ICE launched as an electronic energy marketplace in 2000, helped digitize major commodity markets, and acquired the NYSE in 2013. It has grown exponentially because of this appetite for innovation. That’s the partner we wanted: a partner that looks forward and embraces progress. Americans deserve access to the most innovative markets in the world, and the protections of U.S. regulation. With trade[XYZ] and ICE, subject to regulatory approvals, they’ll have both. The difference isn’t just access. Perps don’t expire, so traders never have to roll positions, and liquidity concentrates in a single deep market for each asset. Cross-margining enhances capital efficiency by letting one pool of collateral back positions across stocks, commodities, and crypto. Underpinning it all are atomic clearing and settlement, real-time risk management that enables continuous markets, and universally applied rules that anyone can verify. This is the next chapter we’ll write together. My responsibility, our responsibility, is to now build markets worthy of the confidence our partners and our users have placed in us. Our commitments will not waver: to fair and transparent markets, to diverse markets, to low costs of execution, and above all, to market integrity. All of this in pursuit of one thing: A universal exchange, open around the clock, coming to the United States. We’re proud to have deployed more than 100 markets on trade[XYZ]. But measured against the opportunity ahead, we’ve barely started. There is an enormous universe of assets we haven’t reached, alongside things people want to trade that have no established market at all. Wherever there is demand to trade an asset, we want trade[XYZ] to be where its price is discovered. Global stocks, commodities, bonds, pre-IPO companies, compute, new indices, digital assets, interest rates, equity baskets, volatility products, alt assets… Anything. Anytime. Anywhere. Ultimately, everything you own should work with everything you trade. Picture a headline breaking on Saturday night. You should be able to post tokenized shares as collateral, hedge your portfolio with an index perp, add exposure to oil, and take a view on a company that has not yet gone public. All in one account, all on one risk engine, before any traditional market opens. trade[XYZ] and Hyperliquid were built for this. I hope someone opens their first investment account years from now to find that trivial, and to wonder why their predecessors needed so many separate financial relationships. Getting there will take liquidity, reliability, trust, and prices people have reason to believe. It will take years. I’m prepared to spend them. Finally, a few thank yous. First to the XYZ team: For the tireless nights and for committing to this vision before it was obvious. To Jeff Sprecher and ICE, with special thanks to Michael Blaugrund and Trabue Bland who championed us throughout: You’re a world-class, technology-embracing team that proves innovation and scale are in fact not at odds. To Stan Druckenmiller: For your partnership and helping us turn the next page. To Hyperliquid Labs: For being the best partners we could ask for. You set an impossible standard, one we continually strive to meet. @chameleon_jeff, @iliensinc, @xulian_hl And most importantly, to our users: You traded these markets when no one thought it mattered. Guess what? It did.
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Some numbers on the potential ethereum:0x0c1c1c109fe34733fca54b82d7b46b75cfb71f6e buybacks. Comparing this to base:0xacfe6019ed1a7dc6f7b508c02d1b04ec88cc21bf at the end given it follows a similar model. Programmatic: All Net Interest Margin (NIM) will go to programmatic buybacks of CHIP. Assuming $1B in TVL, at a 60% utilisation rate. This is how often the TVL is being actively deployed to loans before being sold off to TradFi via GLX. Utilisation rate has been ~60% for the second half of the year so far [1]. At an 8% average loan yield (after costs) and 10% NIM: $1B x 60% x 8% x 10% = $5M in programmatic buybacks. The above is my bear case. My base case is $2.5B in TVL next year which would push programmatic buybacks to $12M [2]. Discretionary: Assuming a 2% origination fee and 2x velocity. At $2.5B in TVL the protocol would fund $5B in loans. That would be $100M in origination revenue [2]. If you assume only 25% of this goes to discretionary buybacks, that would be $25M p.a. Total: i.e. next year would expect ~$30M in total buybacks for ethereum:0x0c1c1c109fe34733fca54b82d7b46b75cfb71f6e, which would put it at a 3x market cap multiple and a 15x FDV multiple. Comparison to Venice: In Q3 base:0xacfe6019ed1a7dc6f7b508c02d1b04ec88cc21bf did $4.1M in annualised programmatic buybacks and $3.9M in annualised discretionary buybacks. So a total of $8M [3]. It trades at 12x the market cap and 4x the FDV. Clear conclusion is that ethereum:0x0c1c1c109fe34733fca54b82d7b46b75cfb71f6e is very undervalued relative to its earning and buyback potential. NFA
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David retweeted
Spain is having record breaking tax collection every year and yet there's not a single public service or infrastructure that improved in the past 20 years because all the growth goes to funding boomers pensions. That's why Gen Z is protesting in many countries
Impuestos de Noruega, sueldos de Zimbabue y trenes de la India
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David retweeted
He de admitir que hasta hace apenas unas semanas yo era de los exquisitos que defendía el no votar, a pesar del deseo un cambio de gobierno, al no sentirme representado por ningún partido de la oposición. Pero dias como hoy te hacen quitarte cualquier tontería y te juro que nunca iré a votar con más ganas en mis 31 años de vida que tengo. Poner un pequeño grano de arena para expulsar de las instituciones a esta peña, que nos sangra a impuestos como si esto fuera Noruega para luego darnos servicios de Bangladesh, es una obligación moral.
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I got some polymarket shorts that expire at month end so if we could speedrun this move into mid 70s that'd be great
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Leftist governments across Europe and in the US say to tax the rich but what the fuck do they do with that money? Why have public services quality fallen in dramatic fashion while tax revenue is up and to the right? Now the second fatal train crash in Spain in the last year because there is no maintenance done. How can people be so blind to not see that governments are an incredibly wasteful, inefficient and corrupt deployer of capital. Socialism is a disease and Europe is literally dying from it - 64 dead (and counting) in an accident that could’ve easily been avoided with proper care and management.
🚨🇪🇸 TRAGIC NEW VIDEO: We’re getting more footage of this morning’s high-speed train crash near Toledo, Spain, that killed at least 46. It happened on the Madrid-Andalusia line between the Iryo Train with 147 passengers and a baby, and the Renfe train, with 397 passengers. Less than a year ago, a crash happened on the same line, between the same 2 companies… 46 people died in that one, too. 💔 Writer: Jamie
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Amongst many other things I believe the @USDai_Official team is setting the example on how a protocol should communicate with its users and investor base. The below very clearly outlines the current business, the transition into an economically superior model, and how it all relates to ethereum:0x0c1c1c109fe34733fca54b82d7b46b75cfb71f6e. The long-term vision - to create a GPU Mortgage market via $20B of loan issuance (ie $20B stablecoin), which is worth decentralising via an on-chain protocol for access to all.
Introducing the Compounding Economics of $CHIP. New proposal: $CHIP buybacks, plus revenue that compounds over time.
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Very clear evidence that you have to increase your probability of the Citrini doom scenario heading into next year where AI layoffs -> cut consumer spending -> lower earnings. Still thinking through the end game but reasonable to think it leads to UBI (money printing) which benefits crypto assets. Short consumer long biotech also seems like could be a good pair trade in 2027 as biotech benefits from rapid AI advancement
Microsoft offering 60k employees buyouts... AI's impact on the labor market is going to be a big topic next year. Crazy that the Fed's September SEP forecasts steady (4.1%) unemployment through 2028.
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I think it was @abcampbell who said recently what is going on in France (and is coming to the rest of Europe) is the breaking of the social contract between young and old. Great summary below
The ugly truth about France and some of the other European countries currently in turmoil - and which none of the politicians want to admit because it'd be political suicide - is that you can't solve the problem by going after immigrants (as the right asserts) or the rich (as the left asserts), but you could solve it by going after the old. One extraordinary statistic for you: people over 60 in France, a quarter of the population, own 60% of France's wealth, non-financial and financial (ofce.fr/pdf/revue/2025/3-192…). And here is another crazy statistic: that same quarter of the population, those above 60, receive nearly two-thirds of all social spending by the French government (previssima.fr/actualite/prot…) - which is famously among the highest in the world (France's government spending is an insane 57.3% of GDP). Last statistic: they make up about 40% of voters because they're a third of registered voters (insee.fr/fr/statistiques/266…), and they turn out far more than anyone else (franceinfo.fr/elections/sond…). Put our 3 statistics together and there's almost a bit of an apartheid situation here: the old own most of the country's wealth, collect most of the social spending and have the political power to keep it that way. Which makes them a de-facto rentier class, living off assets and transfers paid for by younger generations. And, of course, at the risk of stating a truism, the future is built by the young. Yet France keeps effectively taking money away from them to give it to those whose working lives are already behind them - and need the money far less since they already own the country's wealth. What about inheritance, I hear you ask? That's the funniest/saddest aspect: given that life expectancy has kept rising, the French now inherit a home at 54 on average. The most common case is someone in their 80s leaving it to heirs in their 50s, in effect the very old transferring wealth to the about-to-be old (insee.fr/fr/statistiques/fic…). You can add this to our earlier apartheid statement: on top of all the rest, even when the old finally let go of their wealth, it stays within their own "camp". That's my personal situation, incidentally: I'm 42, my father is 71 and he is starting to look at ways to pass things on to me and my siblings, when our professional lives are already well settled, so it'll arrive when it changes things the least, which is pretty much the French system in a nutshell. Now, I get that there'd be some unfairness in going after them: they paid into the system their entire working lives, playing by the rules of a social contract that told them if they paid up they'd collect at the end. Changing the rules now means breaking that promise, which is admittedly unfair. But there's no magic wealth tree in any society: you can only take it where it is. That's the way most major societal transformations end up happening. They're often triggered by a catastrophic event (the so-called "four horsemen": mass-mobilisation war, revolution, state collapse, plague) BUT what really drives change is a transfer: wealth gets pried from the privileged class who've been sitting on it and handed to those who'll build what comes next. So, in theory and in an ideal world, you can do without the catastrophic event and directly proceed with the transfer... The fact that in France, and elsewhere in Europe, it's the youth protesting is probably no coincidence - even though they don't frame it as a generational fight. And even though, cruel irony, the left politicians many of them march behind promise to bring the retirement age back to 60 (lcp.fr/actualites/legislativ…), which would make the situation even worse. Let's say they understand intuitively that the system is stacked against them, even if they haven't yet figured out how. And politicians are obviously doing what politicians do, meaning pandering to the people who actually vote, while pointing the young towards easier - and politically convenient - scapegoats. To be clear I'm not saying it's the only problem in France, VERY far from it. I'm also not saying that all old people in France live a lavish lifestyle at the expense of younger generations: there are also plenty of very poor retirees who, if anything, would deserve more. What I am saying is that it's probably the biggest elephant in the room: everyone can see it, nobody dares mention it - no politician, from any side, wants to run on cutting grandma's pension - and it makes every other problem harder to fix.
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Whats underneath $100 sol
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The high breadth in crypto asset performance has all but cooled off over the last two weeks with only 20% of assets tracked above their 50D MAs. Can usually stay in this range as BTC is done with its down move. Want to see Alt OI / Market Cap also come down before calling for a local bottom
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There is a crypto protocol that has $250M in cash reserves ready to loan out to eligible parties in need of GPU debt financing btw
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much. As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue. That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
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Value accrual back to base:0x0c1c1c109fe34733fca54b82d7b46b75cfb71f6e Billions
$1M of $CHIP bought back by USDAI Inc. 22,343,372 $CHIP purchased with USDC at an average price of $0.044756 across multiple exchanges.
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What is entirely missing from the below is the @USDai_Official pivot from hold-to-maturity to hold-to-sale. Instead of holding loans till maturity, the protocol can sell the loans (for a profit), get back capital and recycle into more loans. Essentially focusing on their moat which is origination and underwriting. Allows for much improved economics as a 2% origination fee is much larger than say 1% NIM on a 10% interest loan. Oh and they just bought back their token for the first time signalling value accrual and alignment base:0x0c1c1c109fe34733fca54b82d7b46b75cfb71f6e to billions
I sincerely believe that people are missing the forest for the trees and that there is massive alpha in asset selection - market sending downwards, BTC looks like shit, alts look like shit, sure but: Venice - people are absolutely sleeping about how important uncensored models are going to be. Just like how Grok Bot defined the new era of interacting with AI in an agentic way, uncensored models will be the de-facto especially as frontier AI users are experiencing depreciating quality in their model output + guys at the top are purposefully being grey actors and killing output for wokeness (Anthropic EA team, OpenAI safety team, etc.) I actually do believe that Venice is the quite literally another Hyperliquid in the sense that this is a defining asset for all of crypto and it has the same type of "low float launch" Disclaimer: >30% of my book is in Venice @AskVenice Chip - The market completely does not understand this one. People now screaming their heads off that Neos are going to 0, debt can't be serviced, etc. seem to forget that you are comparing David (hah!) and Goliath. If CHIP gets just 1% of all loans made in AI to date, you know how much that is? $2 billion dollars looking at DC / GPU debt. It would be the top 10 of stablecoins if that's true. $2 billion at 1%. Now what if they hit 5%? They'd be the 3rd largest stablecoin. GPU loans could halve tomorrow, and their TAM would still be huge (btw, it's $100M/$469M MC/FDV) I highly encourate interested participants to read their quarterly reports because the numbers, speed, and scale they're targeting are all there (usd.ai/research) People don't understand that small to mid market financing is a blue ocean right now because the biggest players, well, focus on the biggest deals. No one wants to deal with anyone that's not a big boi. Why waste your time with that? I do believe that this is an incredible business that has decided to launch a token. Disclaimer: >30% of my book is in Chip @USDai_Official My edge here is that my prior experience in AI Equities has let me understand that 1) Crypto tokens in AI are extremely cheap compared to AI equities from a valuation standpoint, and 2) which area of the value chain to bet on. TLDR: All kyle bags are good.
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Who in their right mind came up with this market
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as bad as things have gotten in the past 4 days, they are going to get a lot worse before they get better. security leaders, never let a crisis go to waste: please go to your boards and ask for help right now. not for ai, for the basics. (we need to hold on for ~18 months.)
The vulnerability tsunami is coming in just a few months and there won’t be enough time to patch critical infrastructure. Network isolation described below (air-gaps and data diodes!) needed now!
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