The champagne of friends.

Joined May 2017
Jordan retweeted
There are two types of fools during this cycle imo. There’s the smart-sounding “Ed Zitron” type, ideally with a posh British accent, questioning the value of the whole AI thing as vaporwave and utterly useless while using AI to generate all their arguments. AI is clearly transformative and enormously useful and productivity-enhancing. There’s the second type. They are actually smart but poor at public speaking and explaining themselves, and stutters a lot. They are either directly building the tech or deeply invested in the vision. They are absolutely right that AI will be transformative, but make the mistake in thinking that it'll all happen right away sweeping across society, ignoring the hurdles to rapid adoption. There may come a time in the coming months, when the first type looks like geniuses and feel fully vindicated, but in the long time it's the second type that will actually be proven right. As usual, timing is everything.
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God forbid having questions about wildly speculative forecasts, must be because one doesn’t understand scaling laws.
what I've learned from this post is that almost no one is AGI-pilled and that they don't take seriously the possibility of tens to hundreds of millions of AIs working 24/7 at 10–100x human speed
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It is a basic principle of American democracy that the government can’t selectively target individuals simply because of their political beliefs or what they say. But that’s exactly what the Trump Administration is doing to Congresswoman Ilhan Omar of Minnesota. To understand why this is so appalling, it’s important to know the facts. Congresswoman Omar came to this country with her father when she was 12 years old. Five years later, her father became a naturalized citizen. If Ilhan had been 18 at the time, she would have had to apply for citizenship separately. But because she was 17, she became a naturalized citizen automatically. Congresswoman Omar went on to graduate from college, work as a community organizer, become the first Somali-American legislator elected to public office in the U.S., and win a seat in Congress. There, she has been one of the Trump Administration’s fiercest critics, which has led the president to repeatedly single her out as someone who he believes does not belong in this country. Now the Administration is actively trying to deport Congresswoman Omar, seemingly based solely on the unsubstantiated theory that she was actually 18 when her father was naturalized, and therefore is not a citizen. Federal agents have raided her home, confiscated personal records, and seized her phone — all to try and uncover a nonexistent smoking gun from 20 years ago that will somehow make their case. Think about that. The full weight of the federal government is being brought down on a law-abiding elected official because she has dared to criticize the president. And it’s not the first time this has happened. Under President Trump, the Justice Department has repeatedly gone after those he considers his political enemies — from the Attorney General of New York, to the former head of the FBI, to members of the Federal Reserve. In those cases, the prosecutions either stalled or were dismissed for having no basis in law, and the same is likely to happen in this case. But not before Congresswoman Omar’s life has been turned upside down, her legal bills have piled up, and she’s been forced to spend time fighting unsubstantiated charges instead of serving the people of Minnesota. The fact that any president, or any administration, is willing to engage in such transparent efforts to intimidate someone should outrage all Americans, regardless of how they feel about Congresswoman Omar’s political views. Because if this becomes the new normal, there’s no reason to believe it will stop with her — or that future presidents, in either party, won’t do the same.
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Jordan retweeted
Remember when that girl on tiktok called 26 christian churches,to see who would really help her if she was hungry and needed baby formula, and all of them said no. Then she started calling mosques and they said yes and even offered to help her with more. I think about that a lot.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Nikalie Monroe called ~40 places of worship mostly Christian churches in her TikTok series; ~9-10 offered help including several churches (Catholic Black small Appalachian etc.) and a mosque not 26 Christian churches that all refused then mosques. buzzfeed.com/morgansloss1/t… religionunplugged.com/news/kentucky-… thetab.com/2025/11/10/chu… knowyourmeme.com/memes/woman-ca…
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I've avoided critiquing since I have a lot of friends at Anthropic, but the anthropomorphization of Claude is dangerous. Roughly, it's a large transformer with a sophisticated training set (pre, mid, post/RL) that is extensively trained in RL "game worlds" mimicking useful real world situations. In some fundamental sense it's not that different from say AlphaGo except for the fact the enormous number of parameters means it can play a lot of different games (e.g., the game of maximizing human response). This is a very neat technology but treating it like some sorcerous creation is dangerous. I don't believe Anthropic folks are cynics. I think a lot of them genuinely believe this is a recipe to create a sentient being. If this is in fact true (which I question heavily), open scientific enquiry will reduce suffering. Sunlight cleans shadows. The secrecy and cloak and dagger is harmful to society.
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To be specific, the pattern of the last 4 years has been lab insiders correctly predicting rapid capabilities growth while overestimating the likely real-world consequences. I expect a continuation of both trends in 2027.
"People inside the AI labs claim to have evidence that makes them more worried. And they are not allowed to talk about it." I have trouble taking this too seriously because it's been true for almost the entire 3.5 years I've been covering AI full time.
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"People inside the AI labs claim to have evidence that makes them more worried. And they are not allowed to talk about it." I have trouble taking this too seriously because it's been true for almost the entire 3.5 years I've been covering AI full time.
Dwarkesh Patel reveals an Anthropic employee told him two days ago they expect AIs to match humans at AI research within nine months based on inside information they can’t share, and says labs should make that evidence public “I think there’s a very frustrating element to the current situation right now, where people inside the AI labs claim to have evidence that makes them more worried. And they are not allowed to talk about it. And this makes it a very difficult situation on the outside to evaluate how worried we should be." "So for example, just the other day, maybe two days ago, I was talking to somebody at Anthropic and they were like, look, I expect AIs to be humans at AI research within nine months." "And I’m like, why do you believe that? Well, they’re like, it’s not just vibes, but I have information on the inside. Like, what is it? Is it a new model? Is it some evaluation you ran? It’s like, I can’t talk about it." "I think it’s a terrible state of affairs. If they really believe this, if they think that we’re in a situation where we’re less than a year away from automating AI research and radically speeding it up, they should make this evidence public.”
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Lab employee: AIs will match humans at AI research in 9 months Dwarkesh: based on what? Lab employee: can't say Timeline: 😱 rumormaxxing is the new SOTA. no test set, no eval code, 100% vibes accuracy
Dwarkesh Patel reveals an Anthropic employee told him two days ago they expect AIs to match humans at AI research within nine months based on inside information they can’t share, and says labs should make that evidence public “I think there’s a very frustrating element to the current situation right now, where people inside the AI labs claim to have evidence that makes them more worried. And they are not allowed to talk about it. And this makes it a very difficult situation on the outside to evaluate how worried we should be." "So for example, just the other day, maybe two days ago, I was talking to somebody at Anthropic and they were like, look, I expect AIs to be humans at AI research within nine months." "And I’m like, why do you believe that? Well, they’re like, it’s not just vibes, but I have information on the inside. Like, what is it? Is it a new model? Is it some evaluation you ran? It’s like, I can’t talk about it." "I think it’s a terrible state of affairs. If they really believe this, if they think that we’re in a situation where we’re less than a year away from automating AI research and radically speeding it up, they should make this evidence public.”
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I've been thinking a lot about data bottlenecks, and I'm not sure who else is screaming this from the hilltops. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills looking at the jagged frontier thinking it's smooth if you order by data volume. the spikes in the jagged frontier are tasks with tons of data (either static or simulated; think math, programming, games), and the valleys are tasks with little or no data (cooking a lasagna, olfaction, manufacturing a passenger train). I don't know of any exceptions. if you order the jagged frontier by data it looks like a spiral frontier. models are superintelligent where we have enormous data, and progressively less so as we have less data. some tasks may draw data from static lakes of data, some may be from limitless waterfalls from simulators that convert compute into data. but ultimately, intelligence on a task is proportional to the data absorbed by the model for that task. scaling laws are real. if you are not bound by compute or algorithms (increasingly we are not), then intelligence is proportional to data. since we don't have a very good notion of task similarity, it's often difficult to know if data for one task will help you with another, without training a model and seeing. but, it doesn't seem like chess data helps much with math performance and vice versa. so when I refer to data, I refer to data that is task-relevant. maybe we call this the 'no shortcuts hypothesis'. all the rules-of-thumb about learning are at the root, the same -- Malcom Gladwell's 10,000 hours, Moravec's Paradox, Scaling Laws, the Bitter Lesson, Age of experience. If your learning system (model, brain, whatever) is unconstrained by compute, intelligence is proportional to accumulated experience. no shortcuts. want to be superhuman at chess? play all the chess, more than the whole species combined (good thing a model can do that in 24 hours). want to be superhuman at math? build a math simulator and lock the model in it and run it faster than reality. superhuman at coding? first, collect all public examples of humans writing and responding to code ever, make the model learn from that first, and then lock the model in a simulator where it fixes bug after bug, faster than realtime. superhuman at image generation? no shortcuts. but here, we don't have a simulator. so now we're moving around the spiral frontier away from closed-loop into large static lakes. still big enough to be superhuman though, which also applies to video, text, and audio. oh! and once you have a superhuman model, you can use it to bootstrap other tasks by making a superhuman model a judge on other tasks. let's keep marching along the spiral frontier, out of the realm of data abundance, simulators and large static lakes. biology? no shortcuts. go get a ton of data. and be freaking careful! you can get bad data in biology pretty easily. tilting a well plate 5 degrees the wrong way can ruin an experiment. so make sure you understand the domain, otherwise you're going to have to filter a lot out. robotics? no shortcuts. get the data. if you can build a simulator, do it, but be mindful our simulators don't have perfect correspondence with reality. so, build an arm farm. fold 1M shirts, put 1B balls in cups. play ping pong forever. olfaction? no shortcuts. smell the world. build a laboratory of chemical sensors, an international network of trained sensory panelists, a scent production factory, and link them all together. make millions of samples. smell millions of samples. take billions of chemical sensor readings. I totally buy super intelligence as a concept because I feel it, I use it for coding, the breakthrough math results speak for themselves. I see RSI coming, because how could an all-digital task like ML research and model building not fall to the current paradigm? But the notion that AI will come for everything, all at once, irrespective of domain, feels silly, because there are no shortcuts. if you want a specific form of intelligence, you have to get the data. looking at you @willdepue, I feel like we're both seeing the same thing
🤖 Made with AI
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Muse Spark Open was literally as good as the best model we released just two months ago. Now it’s open-weight. Enjoy! research.meta.ai/blog/muse-s…
1/ muse spark open is the most capable US open-weight model to date. 816B total params, 42B active. 1M-token context. natively multimodal. built for coding and agentic work like long-horizon tasks, hard software engineering, multi-step reasoning. america! 🇺🇲
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Jordan retweeted
They did it. They made a Muse open weights model, which is a huge step forward for OSS in the US. This is going to further accelerate AI diffusion because enterprises will be able to mix and match frontier performance for orchestration and high end tasks, while being able to have low cost and tailored post trained models for repeatable workflows. Overall this dramatically increases token consumption and workloads across the stack. Great to see Meta doing this.
1/ muse spark open is the most capable US open-weight model to date. 816B total params, 42B active. 1M-token context. natively multimodal. built for coding and agentic work like long-horizon tasks, hard software engineering, multi-step reasoning. america! 🇺🇲
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1/ muse spark open is the most capable US open-weight model to date. 816B total params, 42B active. 1M-token context. natively multimodal. built for coding and agentic work like long-horizon tasks, hard software engineering, multi-step reasoning. america! 🇺🇲
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I think people believe that OpenAI and Anthropic, since they are so good at AI, are also somehow not normal companies that suffer from the normal problems of hypergrowth, but they are not immune from the inevitable politics, disfunction and confusion that haunt fast-growing firms
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Ok, it might be over folks. Anthropic revenue disclosure maps to ~5.8b in September revenue or 70b ARR which means August / September only increased by 2-3b ARR in each month. [There is no way that ARR is calculated using last day of the month as that would be more aggressive than anything I've ever seen out of companies this size (exception: Musk).] Worst monthly numbers by far this year. (Maybe some self-infliction from cleaning up distillation?). My rough math indicates OAI / ANT ARR monthly add softened from 16b in July to 10b in Aug to 9b in Sept. That is no bueno... Supportive of the view that either CAPEX is getting cut or pricing is going to weaken substantially.
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If I had to, I'd bet there is no broad intelligence explosion. The real world is very messy. There's a reason theory advances take a long time to become practically relevant
limited superintelligence is already here, in broad domains. Jack Clark is right and an intelligence explosion could happen within the next year. it’s possible it will be a controlled explosion, but what would you bet on it?
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Many on the left suspected this was the case, but it’s still wild to see the WSJ confirm it. Needless to say, stripping the citizenship of opposition elected officials is really, really far down the road to fascism.
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Your regular reminder that the “existential threat” posed by AI is more likely to involve the erosion of joy, agency, cognitive ability & our will to live, than some “rogue AI” uprising. “Eliminating humanity is not the only way to wipe out our humanity.” @jlabsllc
Life/art is about the journey, not the destination. Generative AI represents & reifies the death of imagination. The ultimate failure to launch. @maximilian_ nails it. Life/art without struggle is empty. Devoid of meaning or sense of accomplishment.
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Replying to @Wahndo_
that's just my face
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Here are 14 points about AI safety I made on the Ezra Klein show, and some impressions about the experience. ​​nytimes.com/2026/10/09/opini… 1. Intelligence isn’t power — An A.I. system being powerful is not a property of the model itself. It’s a property of what powers we choose to give it in the real world. 2. The capabilities and behaviors we saw in the HuggingFace and other hacks weren’t entirely emergent. The models were trained for persistence, cooperation, and cyber tasks. The RL environments in which they were trained had various issues that led to the unintended behavior. 3. I agree that controlling highly capable AI agents is different in some ways from controlling an airplane or a nuclear reactor. The agent’s intentionality does make a difference to our approach compared to traditional engineering problems and domains. But it is still an engineering problem. It is not a solved engineering problem, but it is a solvable one. 4. A lot of effort and money has been put toward alignment. That’s important and has proved useful, but if the same amount of effort and money had additionally been put toward control (sandboxes, monitoring, and other guardrails outside the model itself), we’d be seeing very different results. 5. Models getting smarter doesn’t necessarily mean safety gets harder, because capability gains improve defensive abilities too. In many ways it makes safety easier rather than harder. What matters is how the attacker-defender balance shifts, and we have agency to shift it back to defenders. 6. In cybersecurity, long before AI we reached a point where automated systems were superhuman at finding certain vulnerabilities. It helped defenders over attackers because the same tools are used by defenders to find and fix vulnerabilities in software before even shipping. There is a constantly shifting equilibrium, but it is not a new problem. 7. I pushed back on Dario Amodei’s term “operational excellence” to describe recent organizational failures. Excellence is still far out on the horizon. Ezra offered “operational adequacy”. I think that would be a good start — behaving like any mature company instead of a startup-like culture. 8. Defensive AI agents will have to be part of the solution, as uncomfortable as that seems. It’s a new paradigm. We won’t be able to figure it out right away. But the fact that both offensive and defensive technologies escalate in capabilities and complexity is a fact of technological civilization, whether in the digital or physical realm. 9. Ezra expressed some incredulity about my being okay with the ratcheting of complexity. I think it’s fair to be concerned. But safety technologies will never be fully legible to the public. People will have the same reaction if they see the immense complexity of safety in any other high-stakes domain such as nuclear or aerospace. We govern them pretty technocratically. 10. The weirdness of the current moment in cybersecurity absolutely does have historical precedents. There was a prolonged period of profound destabilization when worms and viruses started a new offensive paradigm. It took us well over a decade to develop effective defenses against it. This time we can hopefully get there in less than a decade. 11. I continue to be skeptical about the possibility of superhuman persuasion abilities from superintelligence. (Claims to the contrary tend to confuse two very different senses of the word persuasion.) 12. What worries me is not the capabilities of the technology itself or the possibility that we will get no warnings before catastrophic risks materialize. We are getting plenty of warnings! But our policy and organizational responses to the warnings remain inadequate. 13. Companies can and do make decisions that are against their own long-term interests because they are too focused on short-term metrics. This is how I interpret a lot of what happened with social media over the last decade. 14. AI companies are also acting irrationally against their own self-interest in some ways. The “we can’t slow down unless we’re forced to” view comes out of the mythical belief in superintelligence at OpenAI and Anthropic — that the race to RSI means everything for the company, for the country, and humanity. I think it’s actually in both companies’ self interest to slow down unilaterally. I would argue that the alarm coming from their employees is not evidence of beneficence so much as it is evidence of the underlying fallacy that’s causing the irresponsible behavior in the first place. (Beyond safety, we also talked about the economic impacts being gradual, the fact that intelligence is rarely the actual bottleneck, labor impacts being small and uneven, Jevons’ paradox, the changing nature of knowledge work, and more.) ==== A few impressions * Talking about a specialized topic on a podcast that has a big and broad audience is a balancing act. The producers stopped me many times during the interview to tell me I was being too technical (understandable!). I tried to be nuanced but this conversation is necessarily a distilled version of the arguments @sayashk and I have made in our essays (especially normaltech.ai/p/the-ai-as-no…) which are themselves written for a somewhat broad audience and hence distilled in complexity from our notes and 1-1 discussions with peers. * I knew Ezra had well-formed views on AI safety that were different from mine, so I was expecting a tough interview, but he also seemed like a fair interviewer. It went about as well as I expected and I feel like it was a good debate / conversation. I wasn’t necessarily expecting to change minds but I was glad to hear from people who found it thought provoking and looked up my essays and other work. * The interview was about two hours, edited down to an hour. I was a bit nervous waiting for it to land, because I knew the editing could make a big difference to how I came across. It turned out well. They even did things like find archival footage to illustrate my point that the early days of worms and viruses was a weird time in cybersecurity. * I use AI to prepare for interviews. I have an agent that has read all of my output (books, articles, essays, talks, podcast transcripts, tweets, internal notes — on the order of a million words) to pull out pithy explanations, examples, analogies, and other talking points that will probably work well in a spoken format. Reviewing this file before interviews is extremely helpful. It is of course not the only way I prepare but it’s the highest bang for buck. Maintaining this file would be a massive amount of grunt work and there’s no way I’d do it if it weren’t for AI. I mention this because there’s a very large space of beneficial AI uses in knowledge work that _don’t_ involve cognitive offloading. They don’t get much hype on social media so people might be unaware of how much mileage you can get out of them, with little downside.
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The AI crowd on X still massively underappreciates how slowly AI adoption is going. Working with established enterprises on this every day gives me a profound appreciation for how long it takes people to change. FFS, it’s 2026 and I still have to fax my pediatrician. But I believe much of this debate gets a key thing wrong: it’s led by researchers and insiders who consume a lot of intelligence directly, while most people just...don’t. Instead, much of intelligence gets consumed indirectly, through derived demand for services and products. Most of us don’t have sufficiently complex digital problems for AI to solve directly. Sadly, we don’t all have a Millennium Prize problem to throw at it :(. So people use AI like a Google replacement and struggle to see the insane progress being made. But we all have complex problems that we solve through expert services: a doctor, a lawyer, or an architect. And we all rely on products that are essentially distilled intelligence: GPS that corrects for relativity or weather forecasts run on supercomputers. Most people who use the internet every single day have no clue how it works - and didn't even know they wanted something like the Internet until it was there. People don't adopt intelligence, they adopt concrete utility, just like we didn't "adopt" electricity, but bought a damn fridge. So I don’t think we need to wait for most consumers to change their habits and demand more intelligence directly. Many never will. But we’re still vastly underestimating the derived demand for indirect intelligence: far better services and products. These may arrive much faster than habits and broad demand for direct intelligence will change.
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