private investor | ex-NYSE, Bridgewater, Bernstein. Write "Under The Hood" https://xitter.cf/t.co/Quq8NMGrpt
New York, NY
Joined July 2008
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3 years "Under the Hood", 50 write-ups, real wins, real scars; 3,000+ of you came along. Thank you.
Today's deep dive is Caledonia Mining $CMCL, where the same "1+1>2" pattern that took Aris to 4x is back: "a cash-cow mine funds the bigger project next door."
Zimbabwe. Two assets. One prints cash. Construction on the 2nd starts next month.
At ~$24, $460Mn MktCap, you pay an Attractive Price for the ATM and get the Future Bet Free.
Link in bio
Kalshi has Dems taking both the Senate and House.
If that holds, name one stock you buy today that the market hasn’t priced in.
My kid’s bball varsity team, and 90% of the conference, when choosing shoes, are debating between LeBron, AirMax, JD, Luka, etc,
That's right, picking which Nike series; other brands don't exist, in their eyes.
No position in $NKE. Just saying SneakerFinX feels like an echo chamber. You ask the consumers (kids), and they roll their eyes: "What are you talking about ??"
No view on $LQDA; but resonate w/ Paul's note:
Don't re-anchor your PT when price moves. If it hits your valuation and your thesis isn't outdated, and leaving $ on the table isn't a miss. You can't sustainably make $ beyond your edge, right?
When you do, be humble, acknowledge the luck, and thank the market god.
Solid work, and congrats, Paul. A good win for a good reason.
Hindsight is always 20/20 but $LQDA is a perfect example of that
First wrote up our thesis on the company in Jan'25. Outlined why we thought it could triple in 3 years.
Stock tripled in a year and we sold.
Stock kept rising all the way up to a high of ~$94/share. Was almost 8x since we published.
At that time, it makes you feel stupid because of all your "missed gains" but then you look back and 8 months later the stock loses the lawsuit and gets sent to below where you sold it at.
It's important not to dwell on the past since it can just eat at you, but sometimes, you do find out that you perhaps got lucky with the decision you made.
Knowing myself, I still wouldn't have held on much more than a 3x, so I still would have never gotten to that $93/share.
Shame of the results but this is just another quick example on why taking wins when you get them instead of beating yourself up on "missed dollars" is so important.
No one is perfect. We try our best to be right. Sometimes, it just comes down to luck.
Today's FinX feels like Judgment Day for $FICO bulls; the court is in session.
I asked Grok for the smartest thing I ever rambled about $FICO. It pulled this gem from Jan'24. Not bad, yea?😂
Sorry, @CCM_Brett, though. You just stand too close to the exhibit (hope you're not offended).
On $HHH Howard Hughes
Ackman's Berkshire-style bet (owns ~47%).
Two segments:
>MPC (land developer for upscale communities)
>Vantage (insurance, acquired ~$2.1B).
Two insider buys (Vantage Chair + HHH COO, ~$1.7M) ahead of tmr's shareholder meeting. Non-material, but an intriguing signal.
Some context: higher rates are a headwind for MPC (as pricier mortgages cool builder demand). That hits builders/REITs broadly.
Less talked about is its tailwind for Vantage: its book is mostly short-duration Treasuries; rising rates is a powerful lever for income at zero cost.
"Why Vantage + MPC is an all-weather combo" is tmr's key theme; that's my guess.
Ok, I missed it at the low 60s, watch/wait patiently here.
Our most compelling mining idea in 2026, bar none.
3 years "Under the Hood", 50 write-ups, real wins, real scars; 3,000+ of you came along. Thank you.
Today's deep dive is Caledonia Mining $CMCL, where the same "1+1>2" pattern that took Aris to 4x is back: "a cash-cow mine funds the bigger project next door."
Zimbabwe. Two assets. One prints cash. Construction on the 2nd starts next month.
At ~$24, $460Mn MktCap, you pay an Attractive Price for the ATM and get the Future Bet Free.
Link in bio
Siyu Li retweeted
2 weeks ago, I published a paywalled write-up and made an 85–90% upside case. The stock has risen ~5% since, leaving a long runway. Today I share the name and key thesis.
It is $OMSE. It makes connectors, wellheads, and pipes for oil & gas wells.
At $4.5, ~$190Mn Mkt cap. $155Mn net cash. You’re paying ~$35mn for a business that made $35mn operating profit last year. That’s ~1x LTM EV/EBIT. Closest peer: 17x.
Bears aren’t wrong to worry: one big customer, a 61.8%-owned CEO, and an M&A war chest with no track record.
We analyzed the concentration, reviewed CEO commentary, and stress-tested worst-case scenarios, including an SOTP analysis that models the largest risk; the results show a compelling bull case.
Link in bio.
2 weeks ago, I published a paywalled write-up and made an 85–90% upside case. The stock has risen ~5% since, leaving a long runway. Today I share the name and key thesis.
It is $OMSE. It makes connectors, wellheads, and pipes for oil & gas wells.
At $4.5, ~$190Mn Mkt cap. $155Mn net cash. You’re paying ~$35mn for a business that made $35mn operating profit last year. That’s ~1x LTM EV/EBIT. Closest peer: 17x.
Bears aren’t wrong to worry: one big customer, a 61.8%-owned CEO, and an M&A war chest with no track record.
We analyzed the concentration, reviewed CEO commentary, and stress-tested worst-case scenarios, including an SOTP analysis that models the largest risk; the results show a compelling bull case.
Link in bio.
My favorite anti-pattern to typical catalyst investing:
A stack of seemingly low-odds, independent catalysts, none imminent, none priced in.
That's the Volkswagen bull case in one sentence. The write-up: underhood.substack.com/p/the…
$VOW.DE $VWAGY Volkswagen
Holy cow.
Up 7% to $9.2.
VW Board signed off on a 50k job cut.
Who knows?
A boring German auto can have a rip too!!
Well, that's one of the five catalysts from the July write-up that few believed.
One (half) down, more to go.
$VOW.DE $VWAGY
Volkswagen trades at a 62% discount to Sum-of-the-Parts, with Porsche (~75% stake) and TRATON (87.5%) worth more than the whole.
China crisis, tariffs, governance, EV missteps, etc, the bear case is loud and legit.
The bull case has multiple paths to re-rating, some plausible, others promising; even better, they are largely independent, and against the common market (mis)perception.
The Bull vs Bear tension is real.
It also has the same DNA as my 2022 Deutsche Bank call (now +3x): hated German conglomerate, scandal baggage, ugly near-term numbers, yet irreplaceable assets and viable paths to unlock value.
Full write-up just dropped; link in bio.
Long before FinX chased Korean equities, we made the case for $SHG, one of Korea's top 4 banks, and laid out why Korea is a perfect place to look for deals.
Up 80% since July'25. Less flashy than Korean memory/chip names, but another solid "Boring Big Bank" win, joining $DB and $C from our '22-23 calls.
That's 3 for 3, 3 banks in 3 continents. We will happily carry that title.
As promised, the latest write-up is available at "Under the Hood."
Like $C and $DB, Shinhan FG, a top-tier South Korean bank, is executing my favorite banking playbook:
✅Profitable growth;
✅Curbing low RoTCE biz;
✅Buyback at deep discount to TBV.
9.5% RoTCE, target 50% shareholder payout, 0.61x P/TBV. Shinhan today reminds me of Deutsche Bank $DB in March 2024 (2x since).
Link in bio.
Siyu Li retweeted
"To my non-mining friends: This space is fraught with fraud, schemes, lifestyle companies, and shitcos."
@GrumpierBTDay is right.
If I can add one little advice, with 20Y+ scars in metal, I call it "Watch Movie, Don't Take Snapshot"
New investors learn the jargon: AISC, reserves/resources, grade (g/t), etc., then play with the pretty model mgt hands you.
The snapshot looks sharp, and you overlook the movie:
> Who sold the mine, when, what price?
> Why did they sell?
> How well did the mine perform b4?
> Who did they buy it from (why so cheap)?
...
Only you ask enough Q and reconstruct the story up to today, then overlay the current snapshot, you start to see the risk/reward. That' where real alpha lives.
If you like this, read more at my s/s. Link in bio.
"To my non-mining friends: This space is fraught with fraud, schemes, lifestyle companies, and shitcos."
@GrumpierBTDay is right.
If I can add one little advice, with 20Y+ scars in metal, I call it "Watch Movie, Don't Take Snapshot"
New investors learn the jargon: AISC, reserves/resources, grade (g/t), etc., then play with the pretty model mgt hands you.
The snapshot looks sharp, and you overlook the movie:
> Who sold the mine, when, what price?
> Why did they sell?
> How well did the mine perform b4?
> Who did they buy it from (why so cheap)?
...
Only you ask enough Q and reconstruct the story up to today, then overlay the current snapshot, you start to see the risk/reward. That' where real alpha lives.
If you like this, read more at my s/s. Link in bio.
Call me biased toward like-minded; I often cheer a pitch that doubles down on something that hasn't worked yet.
$DECK
Staring at my Hoka and UGG (resting for summer), debating whether I should take a serious look.
You want lottery tickets or an exceptionally strong, very high ROOC growing company at 10x net of cash, buying back stock that people are worried is cyclical? $DECK