$ES_F $SPY
We are approaching a massive LVN. If you didn't take it short on top LVN, dont be shorting at this level (LVN 7648). Let someone else do the discovery and price get accepted below.
7648 will be super important (prior all time high) + LVN. Short term - bulls want to reclaim 7,711.5 to auction potentially towards 3m POC 7,773. Just like i mentioned in my prior posts, this market is punishing late bulls and late bears.... Bears need to show initiative selling at 3m Sig 1. We are still in bracketed market, therefore trade it like one.
$ES_F $SPY
We are approaching a massive LVN. If you didn't take it short on top LVN, dont be shorting at this level (LVN 7648). Let someone else do the discovery and price get accepted below.
7648 will be super important (prior all time high) + LVN. Short term - bulls want to reclaim 7,711.5 to auction potentially towards 3m POC 7,773. Just like i mentioned in my prior posts, this market is punishing late bulls and late bears.... Bears need to show initiative selling at 3m Sig 1. We are still in bracketed market, therefore trade it like one.
$ES_F very good rejection last on weekly VAH indicating price exploration higher. We closed at weekly VAH potentially setting up another continuation for bulls. Market has been very brutal for both late bears/late bulls. Keep an eye on the orange zone, if bulls fail to hold it then trading in the bracket continues. Target CPOC of the bracket followed by VAL. If bulls hold the orange zone, next targets listed on the chart. Good luck!
How an AI chip gets made, and who's growing at each step.
• Memory leads: $MU +379% revenue Y/Y, $SKHY +257%
• Equipment trades at a premium: P/E 42–61 vs. ~35 sector avg
• $ASML remains the only EUV supplier
Data: latest quarterly filings. Not financial advice.
$ASML has the keys for chip making. I love the stock and you can read book “ASML way”. Monopoly.
$INTC now makes chips for others: external foundry revenue +68% Q/Q, still ~5% of the segment. Govt is betting on chip manufacturing in US.
$ES_F all played out to a tee. We reclaimed PW VAL visited and jumped over 05/12 then 2w VAL 7726, 7742 and rejected 7,773.75. We took short 7,773.75. 40 pts on the short. Have a good weekend! If interested in joining us we will open 10-12 spots tomorrow, patreon link is in my profile. Cheers!
$ES_F $SPY intraday update. All worked per plan. We had long entry at PDH. Closed at 26 - 2w val.
Then got back in at 9.75 targeting PW VAH.
$ES_F $SPY we revisited the excess from Tuesday and buyers showed up where they needed to. $NVDA had stellar earnings and market gapped up and hit PW VAH (80% complete on weekly).
Now expect some awful PA between 26-42.75. Ultimately clearing 42.75 we visit HVN 7,773.75. Read the post from yesterday compare to auction today. Critical for bulls to hold the purple zone tomorrow. Good luck!
$ES_F $SPY we revisited the excess from Tuesday and buyers showed up where they needed to. $NVDA had stellar earnings and market gapped up and hit PW VAH (80% complete on weekly).
Now expect some awful PA between 26-42.75. Ultimately clearing 42.75 we visit HVN 7,773.75. Read the post from yesterday compare to auction today. Critical for bulls to hold the purple zone tomorrow. Good luck!
$ES_F $SPY holding a 4-day balance within Thursday’s range. C-period failed to extend lower today, leaving a clean single-print tail (excess). As long as that tail remains unvisited and intact, shorts face immediate buying pressure at balance lows.
Bulls need to reclaim today's IBH (7701) to open 7708–7710 (LVN) and test 7726 (2-Week VAL). Acceptance above 7726 triggers the 80% rule for a rotation straight to Prior Week VAH. Cheers!
$ES_F $SPY holding a 4-day balance within Thursday’s range. C-period failed to extend lower today, leaving a clean single-print tail (excess). As long as that tail remains unvisited and intact, shorts face immediate buying pressure at balance lows.
Bulls need to reclaim today's IBH (7701) to open 7708–7710 (LVN) and test 7726 (2-Week VAL). Acceptance above 7726 triggers the 80% rule for a rotation straight to Prior Week VAH. Cheers!
$ES_F $SPY spending time right above prior ATH (7649.25).
Poor risk/reward for shorts here. OTF buyers control the auction until we see acceptance back inside the previous range. Loss of 7649.25 opens the door for a rapid 300 pt inventory adjustment in search of buyers. Good luck!
Bulls want to reclaim PW VAL 7684.25 where they struggled today (happens to be Friday's VAL) as well. Wouldn't be surprised to see some late shorts trapped and all kind of good news to start pouring in such as peace deal #25 and we get 80% on weekly. Keep an eye on $VST stock.
$ES_F $SPY spending time right above prior ATH (7649.25).
Poor risk/reward for shorts here. OTF buyers control the auction until we see acceptance back inside the previous range. Loss of 7649.25 opens the door for a rapid 300 pt inventory adjustment in search of buyers. Good luck!
Bulls want to reclaim PW VAL 7684.25 where they struggled today (happens to be Friday's VAL) as well. Wouldn't be surprised to see some late shorts trapped and all kind of good news to start pouring in such as peace deal #25 and we get 80% on weekly. Keep an eye on $VST stock.
Treasury just doubled long-bond buybacks ($2B → $4B per op, 10-30yr sector) after the 30yr hit 5.3% , highest since 2007.
No yield target announced. But in auction terms?
A large resting bid just stepped into the long end, funded by issuing bills.
That’s not liquidity support. That’s price control without the peg.
When a standing buyer absorbs offers at the lows, price discovery doesn’t stop — it just migrates. Watch where value builds next: the dollar and gold are already voting.
Soft YCC has begun. The market knows it even if nobody will say it.
$Es_F
Analogy poker & YCC:
The Treasury is a gambler at the table. The Fed owns the casino and can print chips. Right now the gambler is rearranging his own chips, moving them from long bets to short bets. No new chips have entered the game, so technically no printing. But he’s arranged his stack so that if his luck turns, the casino owner has no choice but to print chips and bail him out, because if the gambler goes down, the casino goes down. YCC isn’t money printing today. It’s a setup where money printing becomes mandatory tomorrow.