Ethics, Strategy & Economy | @ANUBellSchool | formerly @WilsonSchool @Princeton | PhD @Cornell
Canberra
Joined March 2014
- Tweets360
- Following2.4K
- Followers456
- Likes1.5K
Common sense counsels against seeing these divides as unbridgeable in the first place. To my mind, Jervis's ability to resist professional pressures to think otherwise is what made him the ultimate scholar of international politics. Very sad news.
Bob Jervis was a dear friend. His passing leaves a hole in my heart & a void in my field.
Bob’s first-class mind bridged unbridgeable divides: history-science, micro-macro, left-right, qualitative-quantitative,...
Experience Jervisian magic here:
annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10…
Highly recommend this wonderful @WarOnTheRocks interview, in which he breaks down a number of other false dichotomies, including between political engagement and disinterested scholarship:
warontherocks.com/2019/08/an…
I think Paul Keating is ultimately wrong to think Australia should appease China over Taiwan, but commentators have been far too quick to dismiss his view out of hand. Here's why:
Paul Keating may be the “Grand Appeaser”, but is he wrong? | Simon Cotton ift.tt/3oYLOIW
My reminder that the main problem with deterrence--that it can cause conflict via mutual misperception of intentions--is not applicable to the Taiwan case @FrankJannuzi @WalterLohman @RichardHaass
US strategic clarity on Taiwan wouldn’t unleash a spiral of escalation | @simonrcotton | bit.ly/3bCr5Vd
Great episode @NicoPerrino. Yet I think Amar is wrong to say the opponents of the Bill of Rights were incoherent because they said 'it would be dangerous' *and* 'we already have one'. The worry was that a list would lead people to think there were no additional implicit rights.
NEW PODCAST:
@Yale Prof. Akhil Reed Amar discusses the origin story and history of America’s First Amendment and its five freedoms.
Watch: youtube.com/watch?v=RDXV7P9P…
Listen: thefire.org/so-to-speak-podc… @amaricas_const
Simon Cotton retweeted
One of the most fascinating papers I've read for a long time: People dislike their political opponents for views that most don't actually hold. psyarxiv.com/cr23g/ [Preprint; N = 4,993.]
Simon Cotton retweeted
A story of the absence of independent oversight of policing. The more concerning the more the state wields disproportionate power and force: thesaturdaypaper.com.au/shar… #lawandsocialjustice With thanks to @RLC_Police
Distressingly misleading headline & article from @smh. Despite US's abysmal response, heart disease and cancer have killed many more than covid. And the 1918 flu pandemic alone was a ‘bigger killer’ per capita. Australia’s covid debate must be fact-based! smh.com.au/world/north-ameri…
Simon Cotton retweeted
Fellow Australians, especially so-called progressives, this is @TheAtlantic, not a publication that could easily be dismissed as playing out some kind of alt-right agenda. We are in trouble. theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv…
Nice arguments against the ‘fortress Australia’ approach to covid. However, it isn't surprising that Australian ‘progressives’ have embraced this approach, as this is consistent with what we have seen globally:
pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20…
Why have progressives in Australia been so muted about the erosion of rights and liberties during Covid? The latest from @mds49 and me for @ABCReligion on the danger with progressives who have gone all in on Fortress Australia and zero Covid abc.net.au/religion/tim-sout…
Simon Cotton retweeted
NEW: An Oxford study has found that the risk of blood clots is far higher following infection from COVID-19 than after taking a vaccine dose.
Researchers analysed data from over 29 million vaccinated people.
More info ⬇️
Even if the ACT's covid policy strikes the right balance, it's extremely concerning that it's being defended with a bald-faced statement of the sunk cost fallacy: "We do not want all of the hard work over the last few weeks to go to waste by opening up too early."
ACT records 12 new COVID-19 cases, with majority infectious in the community abc.net.au/news/2021-08-30/a…
Simon Cotton retweeted
What's more dangerous than getting the AstraZeneca vaccine?
Everything in life carries some degree of risk. It's up to us to choose whether the benefits outweigh those risks. #FightingCoV2
ALT If you choose to get the AstraZeneca vaccine, your risk of death from TTS is 1 in a million and your risk of getting TTS at all is less than 30 in a million. But how does that compare? Risk of death from a general anaesthetic is 18 in a million. Risk of death from accidental poisoning is 55 in a million. Risk of being struck by lightning is 2 in a million. Risk of death due to rock climbing is 3 in a million. Risk of death from giving birth is 67 in a million. Risk of death due to daily aspirin is 100 in a million. 1 in a million is really rare. When considering vaccination against COVID-19, it's important to remember the proven benefits vastly outweigh the really rare risks. TTS is a rare condition reported in some people who have received adenoviral vector COVID-19 vaccines. TTS is different from other more common blood clotting conditions as it is triggered by an immune response. Having a history of blood clots like DVT, does not increase your risk of TTS due to the vaccine.
Simon Cotton retweeted
If this isn’t a public policy failure, tell me what is: “about 6 million doses are yet to be used, even as more than half the nation is in lockdown due to outbreaks of the highly infectious Delta variant” theage.com.au/politics/victo…
Simon Cotton retweeted
Australia is the only liberal democracy in the world that doesn’t have comprehensive legislation covering people’s rights, says Tim O’Connor, the campaigns’ manager of Amnesty International Australia | OPINION
theage.com.au/national/covid…
Simon Cotton retweeted
NEW: In @unherd I argue that Australia's lockdown strategy has been accepted by elites and the middle class because it overwhelmingly impacts the working class and the poor. unherd.com/2021/08/the-cruel…
.@JulieLeask and @janewilliams141 persuasively argue that vaccine mandates should be considered only once barriers to accessibility have been overcome and only provided that 'adversarial responses' are not excessive. I would add that, even then, inducements must be tried first.
Why making vaccinations compulsory should be a last resort
By @janewilliams141 and @JulieLeask
#COVID19 #COVID19Aus #CovidVaccine
theage.com.au/national/why-m…
.@PeterSinger makes an articulate case. However he neglects three critical questions that arise *every time* we consider making something ‘compulsory’ (thread):
smh.com.au/national/why-vacc…
2/3 What penalty is involved? ‘Compulsion’ usually implies a penalty, but it has to be specified to determine whether it is proportionate and to weigh its costs. Also, while penalties can deter non-vaccination, they can also compound dissuasion and thus, in theory, crowding out.