🚨If you're interested in tailing all my bets: My group is launching again with the new season. This is where I'll post all my bets from the mathematical models. Capped group with SERIOUS BETTORS only. More details about the service, bookies, markets and general info can be viewed in the bot below. Been working on a lot of new projects and improvements over the summer, and have been posting bets to past members in August while getting the group ready for September. Since the last update to the models on August 9th: Total Summary: 106 bets 📈 ROI% 121.3 💰+17.86u 15/19 days in profit All-time Group Stats (2021-) 📊 11,178 bets 💰+747.28u 📈 ROI% 110.5 1u= £25= +£18,682 1u= £50 = +£37,364 1u = £100 = +£74,728 Spots have now been opened up: first-come first-served principle counts. Once the group is filled, the bot will close. You can join and view a lot more info here: t.me/simongroupbot Feel free to ask any questions. I'll continue to post occasional free bets to those who want to wait before joining my group!

One Free bet for later today: 🇲🇽Club America v Tijuana Tijuana Over 9.5 Shots @ 1.8 (1u) Bet365 like usual. Club America has been letting in more shots under Guillermo Almada. Also liking Tijuana's numbers recently.

Wow, Gladbach closes around ~10% chance of beating Stuttgart away after losing all first 6 Bundesliga games. Not only did they beat Stuttgart, but they also outshot them at home while leading for much of the game. And Stuttgart is one of the highest shooting teams in the BL. Although Undav started on the bench, Stuttgart ended with 15 shots, way below my model's expected shots at 20.80. Don't think many saw that one coming. Bookies must be happy. ✅Over 29.5 Total Shots won in my group though

Throwback to the golden profit era of props ~2016-2021 Where lines from the bookies were horribly inaccurate, we had unders for all player props in all countries, limits were way better, odds lasted longer, and only a handful of successful tipsters were competing. Wild times. In the current market, I don't think I'll ever achieve the results I had back then: 📊1582 bets 💰+1 132.94u 📈 ROI% 17.87 No surprise Bet365/Kambi had to make a lot of changes to reduce their losses. They've improved their internal models, reduced liquidity to make lines sharper, removed unders, cracked down on tipster groups and made odds shift quickly, and limitation risks are higher than ever. Meanwhile, the number of tipster groups and the availability of data analysis tools have increased competition. Still, always a new way to find an edge in today's markets, but definitely not as easy as it was back then. You could have built a very basic model and beaten the market by a mile😅

Any tipster posting prop bets for Bet365 or other soft books 1+ days before KO is not only very unimpressive, but it's also almost guaranteed that you won't be able to achieve the results they claim. Take early positions, get a very high chance of CLV because liquidity is low, bookies detect this and limit the accounts right away. On soft markets, this has been a dead strategy for a long time. This is basically just bragging about unrealistic returns unless you got hundreds of accounts on the side, which most people who tail groups dont have. I could make 10x profits in my group if I took early positions, and my results would look amazing, but most importantly, they are not achievable at all. For bigger markets and bets on prediction markets/asian books, taking early positions is actually a great way to find an edge, as you don't have to deal with the restriction/limit bullshit from the soft books.

Different strategies to find an edge in Sports betting: • Pure Quantitative modeling (👏🏼) • Quantitative modeling w/ manual adjustments • Information trading • Benchmarking • Arbitrage (certified virgin) The bare minimum is involving some sort of data/software.

The more I work on football data from all the leagues and understand the dynamics and interactions between them, the more value I see in rich detailed data that are not available publicly on different stat sites. Explains why getting access to Opta/Statsbomb data is so expensive, because it can be extremely valuable. Although it's logical to think that the more advanced data you have, the more accurate you will be, if you don't treat that data correctly, you could introduce more noise, overfitting, instability etc. Making your predictions worse than using surface-level stats. Because surface-level stats already include a lot of information from much of the data you don't see or have access to. A model with few parameters and less data can beat one with significantly more parameters and data because of this. The advantage isn’t simply having the most data. It’s knowing which information matters, how different variables interact, how to separate signal from noise, and how to produce probabilities better calibrated than the markets. It's a tough job, and now that we have more access to data than before, more money is put into the markets because of the rising popularity of sports betting, making markets sharper through the principle of "Wisdom of the crowd" and a higher level of sharp money being included in prices. Competition in the overall markets is much tougher now than it was years ago, and mathematically, it totally makes sense. But there are always ways to exploit markets and find edges. The market will never always be correct. You might find certain situations where you weigh factors differently than what the market does, and that's where you find your edge. CLV is THE tool for better understanding whether your edge is potentially real (though this heavily depends on market liquidity and market quality). A lot of sharp money comes in closer to KO as more information becomes available. If you’re consistently beating an efficient closing market across a large sample, that’s a much stronger signal about the quality of your predictions than short-term betting results.

Dont think I've ever seen Brentford getting priced as favorites against Liverpool at any venue

Today in the group: 🇦🇷Huracan v Gimnasia LP ✅Over 24.5 Total Shots @ 1.83 (1.25u) 💰+1.04u Nice win, closed around 26.5 and finished on 28 shots. 95% of all members got on too, which is more meaningful than anything.

I gotta give Bet365 some rare credit. They now offer prop markets on all Championship games, all PL games have Goal Kicks/Throw Ins/Free Kicks markets and not just a few selected ones. Also, a few Serie A games have tackles markets. But the liquidity/odds dropping change they made back in February has been atrocious.

Had a heavy bet from 2 days ago resettled as a win, so updated October results including results from today: *Current Results October 1st-14th: 📊121 bets ✅ Wins 78 | ✖︎ Loss 43 ⚖️ AvgStake 0.88u 📈 ROI% 117.9 💰+19.07u *Since last update August 9th: 📊367 bets 📈 ROI% 111.7 💰+33.78u

Nope ✖︎︎︎ TWO red cards for Lincoln after 20 min fuck off😆 Expected loss because of that. Had great value, just extremely unlucky with the outcome of the game. Group also had Portsmouth Over 13.5 Shots (✅), which reduced the loss. More another time!

Free bet for today: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿Lincoln City v West Ham Lincoln City Over 11.5 Shots @ 1.83 (1u) Market was at 10.5 for a quick sec, but still value here. If it goes up, whatever group pushed the market down might do it again and you can get the same price. My models disagree with that movement.

Great start to October in my group!: Results so far October 1st-13th: 📊116 bets ✅ Wins 73 | ✖︎ Loss 43 ⚖️ AvgStake 0.88u 📈 ROI% 113.2 💰+13.81u Results since latest update to the models on August 9th: 📊362 bets 📈 ROI% 110.1 💰+28.52u (*Only Shot markets so far. More markets coming to the service later this month after more backtesting) You can see a portion of the bets in the image. Members in my group report what bets they were able to take at same odds as post, with a spread around 80-95%, overall average stands at 4031/4703 - 85.7%. Which depends on what time you were placing the bets. Although a few odds drop (which is expected for any service these days), there is still value left to be caught, just reduce your stake. All bets for the day are posted on matchday only(!). All in one bulk, with max 2 posts a day. No need to be active 24/7. No snowball or promo bets, 99% single lines with a betbuilder once in a while. All bets come directly from my automated models ran on python/sheets. My service is for serious bettors only. Who understand that betting is a marathon, not a sprint, can control their bankroll, bet without emotion and stay consistent. It’s the only way to win long term and It’s not going to be profit every day, if that’s what you expect then this service is not for you. Interested to join or have any questions? Feel free to DM me or check out the bot for more info. Transparency is key for a successful service, so I am here to respond to any inquiries;)

Current results in the premium group since the last update to the models on August 9th: (August 9th-) Total Summary: 📊264 bets 📈 ROI% 110.7 💰+21.14u Good results for the International break so far too: 📊26 bets 📈ROI% 122.71 💰+4.71 Volume is still very low, only having the Team Shots market right now while I am backtesting new models. Eventually we’ll have Totals, SOT, Offsides, Tackles, FK, TI, GK markets too, so should be a lot more volume once they are back during October. Backtesting will be for all historical odds that was taken at the time of post in my groups for the 24/25, 25/26 and the current 26/27 season. Long term ROI% is expected to be around 10%. Possibly higher for smaller markets and for smaller leagues/tournaments. 🚨A few spots has opened up for the October group, if you’re interested in joining feel free to join with the bot: t.me/simongroupbot Bot will close once all spots are taken. DM’s are open if you have any questions about the service.