Economist, Upenn management prof , author, science & sci fi buff, policy wonk. Now favoring dolphins as the best hope for intelligent life in the universe.
Joined June 2012
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Greetings to my DRUID friends, meeting in Copenhagen now. I'm wearing my DRUID cap, with the cauldron hook logo, in your honor.
It is noteworthy and underemphasized that GOP Senators are advancing a "constitutional" argument that is a clear insult to the intelligence of our Founders. Michael Gerson nailed that one: wapo.st/3tN8ZaL
Last week, a fundraising solicitation arrived from a major civil rights org, addressed to my late wife under her married name. She had contributed before. Unsurprising, you say? Well, read on. 1/n
Nope. So she quit. And all these years... So, junk mail. Also in the past week, at least 44 pieces of fraudulent mail mimicking the DC tax authority, triggered by an error on the authority's part concerning the application of an overpayment on one year's return. 3/n
It was interpreted as a flight of B-17s arriving from the US mainland, abt as expected. Dbl poignancy: It was an attack from Japanese carriers; the reason the B-17s were coming was to improve the LR aerial patrol against just such an attack. Tactical warning chance missed! 2/n
That day taught many hard lessons at many levels, e.g. this one: The cognitive grip of "normalcy" is enormous, even at the center of a crisis among ppl who "know better". A thing to remember from a day to remember, & not for military strategists alone. 3/n
A day that "will live in infamy": 79 yrs & some minutes ago, an Army radar station on the N tip of Oahu shut down after sighting a major blip. It was the 1st wave of the Japanese attack planes, but it was misinterpreted. @ConsWahoo @RadioFreeTom 1/n
Sidney Winter retweeted
This New York Times letter to the editor is really disturbing. What an incredible, diabolical plot, the scale of which is astounding. #KrakenIncoming #KrakenReleased #KrakenOnSteroids #KrakenDay nytimes.com/2020/11/25/opini…
WYSIATI! WYSIATI! What You See Is All There Is. It's a cognitive bias that can be restrained but is essentially impossible to defeat completely. See Kahneman's book Thinking Fast and Slow, at many points (see index), but 85-88 for starters.@R_Thaler 1/n
Today's anti-WYSIATI exercise premises a tendentious and definite statement by a public figure, which you "know" to be false. That's what you "see." It is common to think: Liar or Fool?