Searching for alpha in the noise
Ukraine
Joined October 2021
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The Global Uncertainty Index is hitting new all-time highs.
It is already twice as high as during the COVID crisis. Just think about that.
That’s exactly why capital is flowing into safe-haven assets (metals), while risk assets (crypto) are dumping and getting wiped out.
But markets are cyclical — sooner or later everything will turn in our favor.
The key is to survive until that moment.
Expecting more than 1000 MARU this week
last week’s stats showed that volume around $100k no longer brings the desired profit in MARU, and наоборот accounts with $200k+ received from 1000 MARU
points will be free!
Maximally cheap way to get Genius points!
A risk-free strategy! Everyone gets a referral link with 35% fee cashback — just register another account under your own link and generate volume on spot.
At the end of the week you receive a 35% cashback to your main account.
Point price up to $0.06.
USDT/USDC 0.5x but 0.05% fee, think.
Listing in April, expecting $0.5 per point.
INKCHAIN HAVE STARTED DROPPING HINTS about an upcoming TGE of the INK token. On Polymarket the project is valued at $250M FDV WITH 83% ODDS.
BUT! Just because nado will distribute “Ink” tokens doesn’t mean anything. What if they give 0.0001% — and what then?
People have been farming Ink for a long time — the L2 itself, testnet promises, all that. And we still have zero clarity on tokenomics, what % goes to testnet, how much to nado, etc.
I think they might just give out crumbs. Why would they allocate a lot to a perp that everyone will keep spinning anyway long before tokenomics are even known? And since this is not the perp token but the L2 token itself, it’s not that important for them how much they give to nado farmers…
I’ve got a bad feeling for farmers. Wait up to a year for what?
gGenius team, are we all connected to politics now?
It turns out that AJ Scaramucci, son of the former White House Communications Director, and Alex Klokus from SkyWatcher UFO Discovery are involved in the Genius Terminal project.
CZ clearly cares a lot since he’s an advisor.
Still don’t believe in an April listing and $0.5 per point?
How much MARU did you get?
Maybe the EdgeX team is taking a big share for themselves?
Because this week the distribution is much worse than the previous one — and it’s not related to trading volume growth, since there wasn’t any.
Overall I’ve had about a 40% rebate, but this week it’s not even 10%. Pretty disappointing.
But I’m still optimistic.
Polymarket FDV bets on upcoming TGEs!
• EdgeX is the clear heavyweight. Market gives it 51% odds to launch above $1B FDV — strongest expectations so far.
• Solid mid caps: Variational and Backpack. Both have >50% odds to clear $300M and $500M respectively.
Backpack has ~2 weeks of farming left. Variational is still early and probably has the highest upside narrative-wise.
• More conservative expectations: Paradex (27% odds above $300M) and Pacifica (32%). Paradex is basically at TGE stage, Pacifica has been farmed for a while and token still doesn’t look close.
How realistic is edgeX at $2B FDV?
And can Backpack actually push to $1B?
I believe it, we’ll see everything in the next 2 months!
Last week we hinted at where Hibachi is heading.
Now it gets interesting.
We see a clear opportunity to redefine FX trading using our existing tech — aligned with the growing adoption of stablecoins.
And this is just the beginning.
We haven’t shared how we’ll execute it yet.
But soon we’ll outline a clear path to becoming a stablecoin-native FX exchange.
What’s coming:
• product & roadmap upgrades
• points system updates
• referral program improvements
• and everything in between
For now, the most valuable thing is your activity:
trading, feedback, ideas, community participation.
That’s what will shape the next era of Hibachi.
Buckle up.
Hibachi is just getting started.
Why Perp DEXes Feel Outdated Next to Backpack
1. No proper portfolio margin with spot.
Spot and perps are usually separated by margin, and many platforms either don’t have spot at all or only offer a few pairs.
2. Limited collateral options.
You can’t use BTC, ETH, SOL or other major alts as collateral — only USDC in most cases.
3. Restricted USDC usage.
Positive PnL usually can’t be used as margin or withdrawn without closing positions first.
4. No borrow/lending or spot margin.
Most perp-DEXes don’t have lending markets or flexible collateral management.
5. No native stablecoin yield.
There’s no direct yield from the stablecoin issuer. Backpack offers ~4% yearly on USD balances on average, while perp-DEXes offer nothing.
6. Lack of multichain functionality.
Backpack allows deposits from multiple chains and can be used as a bridge. Most DEXes don’t support this properly.
7. No cross-margined prediction markets.
Prediction markets are usually not integrated into the margin system.
8. No proper fiat on/off ramps.
There’s no direct banking integration for deposits and withdrawals. Backpack supports 1:1 USD deposits/withdrawals (third-party fees may apply).
9. Weak mobile experience.
Most perp-DEXes have poor or non-existent mobile apps. Backpack already has smooth native iOS and Android apps.
10. Licensing and compliance.
Most perp-DEXes operate like centralized no-KYC exchanges without proper regulation. Backpack focuses on compliance and plans to obtain licenses in strict jurisdictions like the US, EU, and Japan to offer full fiat and banking services alongside crypto.
Which feature of Backpack suits you the most?
$0.5 per Genius point at listing?
Let’s calculate calmly.
200M points allocated.
Let’s assume 20% of total supply goes to the airdrop (could be even more).
That would put total supply at ≈ 1B tokens.
If we assume a $500M FDV (Opinion has a similar valuation and it’s also close to Binance / CZ), then:
500M / 1B = $0.5 per token.
That means the total airdrop pool would be ≈ $100M.
Considering listing is already planned for April and up to 100% of trading fees are refunded — the farming model looks very attractive.
What price per point do you get in your calculations?
How many Xs on expenses do you see?
Run your own numbers and estimate the upside — 5x / 10x / 20x?
Link for friends — tradegenius.com/ref/NKNECN
How to get up to 100% commission back in @GeniusTerminal ?
By trading on the platform, you receive POINTS. After each week, the project returns the funds you spent (see screenshot).
The team said they will conduct the TGE by April 12, the main CZ is an advisor to the project, and YZI Labs invested over $20M.
Vana — $1,000 per account for clicks
Aster — insane token growth
Genius — ???
In these three projects, Changpeng Zhao was an advisor, so the potential is very high.
Join — tradegenius.com/ref/NKNECN
EdgeX my stats update!
Last week I ran only 6 accounts
$663,000 volume
$189 spent on fees
From the roulette:
871 MARU (~$55) → ~30% of costs covered
64 points earned.
If we zoom out to the last 3 weeks, roulette covered ~40% of total expenses.
Now the big news:
• A venture fund linked to Circle invested in the project
• MARU meme pumped +50% on the news
There’s also still a daily MARU giveaway (200–1000 MARU = $13–$64) for 50 random users who leave a review on the App Store / Google Play.
You just need to catch the form in time — rewards arrive the next day.
Are you farming EdgeX or still watching from the sidelines? link in the comments👇
VIP1 status link (20% fee discount + 5% XP bonus) - pro.edgex.exchange/en-US/ref…
SERGO retweeted
Backpack > $500M odds hit 68%. Betting below $500M is fading reality now.
Axios reporting a $50M raise at a $1B valuation, so it sets a psychological floor.
When smart money buys equity at $1B, a $500M Token FDV becomes a huge slippage.
With Team + VCs locked, the only Day 1 pressure is the airdrop, so what's the problem?
There are no problems at all!
That’s a huge 50% safety margin backed by $100M in revenue.
I'm buying the $500M FDV option and chilling, nfa, good luck everyone!
