Prediction markets did $44B in volume last year
90% of it is sports and the audience is all male
Meanwhile, women drive 85% of all consumer purchases in the US alone
That's $20T a year in spending power with zero categories for us
👇Here's my thesis on the next trillion dollar unlock: chicbetting.com/
selinaxxx retweeted
There's a physicist at Stanford named Safi Bahcall who modeled this exact principle and the math is wild.
He calls it "phase transitions in human networks." When you're stationary, your probability of a lucky event is limited to your existing surface area: the people you already know, the places you already go, the ideas you've already been exposed to. Your opportunity window is fixed.
When you move, your collision rate with new nodes in a network increases nonlinearly. Double your movement (new conversations, new cities, new projects) and your probability of a serendipitous encounter doesn't double. It roughly quadruples. Because each new node connects you to their entire network, not just to them.
Richard Wiseman ran a 10-year study at the University of Hertfordshire tracking self-described "lucky" and "unlucky" people. The single biggest differentiator wasn't IQ, education, or family money. Lucky people scored significantly higher on one trait: openness to experience. They talked to strangers more, varied their routines more, and said yes to invitations at nearly twice the rate.
The "unlucky" group followed the same routes, ate at the same restaurants, and talked to the same 5 people. Their networks were closed loops. No new inputs, no new collisions.
Luck isn't random. Luck is surface area. And surface area is a function of movement.
The lobster emoji is doing more work than most people realize. Lobsters grow by shedding their shell when it gets too tight. The growth requires a period of total vulnerability. No protection, no armor, soft body exposed to the ocean.
That's the cost of movement nobody posts about. You have to be uncomfortable first. The new shell only hardens after you've already moved.
Big win for PMs!
New Jersey is one of the most gambling forward states.
Surprising this came out of NJ, but nonetheless, great news for prediction markets.
The only way to get women interested in prediction markets is re-architecting the platform to focus on them.
Kalshi needs to build a lifestyle that is rooted in taste, embedded in cultural moments, and then made measurable through markets.
That’s how you get women interested!
Kalshi wants to get more young women interested in the prediction-market platform, looking to expand beyond sports and its core male customer base on.wsj.com/4lrKmMo
Honestly, the Axiom insider trading on @Polymarket shows the advantage to having a regulated exchange.
Markets on @Kalshi already deter at least some insider trading by requiring KYC.










