☕️ | Previously @Segment, @innov8cowork
Chandigarh
Joined January 2010
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Perspective
Even for someone optimistic on AI in the long term, objectively Ant went from adding 10B rev per month to ~2-3B of rev per month. Growth has slowed significantly in real terms, it’s not just “law of large numbers” deceleration, it is actual slowdown. On 70B base their recent rate of growth is possibly <50% forward annualized, which is slower than the Hyperscalers entire businesses are currently growing (CSP AI biz growing much faster obviously).
Data indicates potential acceleration for Ant from Aug-Sept levels in Oct, and there are 1-off headwinds they have absorbed contributing to slower recent levels of growth.
But that the business can decel by ~8B/mo almost as quickly as it accelerated highlights the risk, and why mkt is so jumpy on datapoints.
Not irrational at all that AI stocks are down this much. Add in rates/debt markets, politics, supply chains, lots of reason for elevated discount rates.
For the bull case for AI supply chain stocks in the short term, you need to see:
- Successful Ant IPO / OAI fundraise
- Rates to calm down and appetite from debt markets to support current rate of issuance for a few more years as buildout > monetization.
- Blowout cloud earnings and positive EPS revisions
- A few more “Claude code” moments unlocking new TAM from better models / harnesses / applications to re-accelerate AI token monetization trends out of current lull.
The trend is no longer your friend unfortunately.
Sehaj Singh retweeted
I'm maintaining an India Semiconductor Tracker. I thought it would be valuable to do something similar for China, using local sources.
Here's the beta, covering fabs, assembly, fabless firms, and equipment firms. Send an update if I missed anything. fabs-china.pranaykotas.com/
Nice to see this expansion towards the east. KV invested in a frontier lab in Japan a couple of years ago and Peter Thiel met their Prime Minister earlier this year. Quite some action.
a16z is officially in Japan, led by Hitoshi Yoshida as Head of Japan, with the opening of our Japan office.
It was an honor welcoming Governor Koike at the opening earlier today. Japan combines world-class industrial capabilities with growing innovation in AI, cybersecurity, robotics, and defense. By bringing our portfolio companies and the Japanese ecosystem together, we aim to accelerate Japan’s AI-native economy and strengthen the ties between Silicon Valley and Japan.
As the former President of Microsoft Japan and Hewlett-Packard Japan, Hitoshi brings decades of technology leadership and deep relationships across business, industry, and government. We’re thrilled to have him lead our efforts in Japan and look forward to doing great work in partnership with the Japanese technology community.
日本代表として吉田仁志を迎え、日本オフィスを開設できたことを大変心強く光栄に思います。日本は、世界有数の産業基盤と、AI・サイバーセキュリティ・ロボティクス・防衛などの分野における目覚ましいイノベーションを兼ね備えています。
我々はこれまでになかった機会を、日本の若い世代に提供していくことを目指します。日本のテクノロジーコミュニティの皆様と共に、日本の市場やエコシステムの発展に貢献していけることを楽しみにしています。
Sehaj Singh retweeted
Micron expects humanoid robots to need memory and storage comparable to Level 4 AVs: 200GB+ of DRAM and terabytes of NAND
Micron CEO believes "Physical AI can become a significant driver of memory and storage demand by the end of this decade."
"Countries are the latest companies, and companies are the latest countries" - dialogue from Tamasha
The big tech companies have global empires to rule. As we enter the agentic era, the security setup may look similar.
Countries - border security
Companies - bot security
If you’re looking to set up a base or shift to the valley for your startup, this is a great program to join. The team is supportive & helpful. Congrats, @MotwaniSuhas, @abhayjani4, @adityamohanty_, @parthbatraa!
THE ENTOURAGE
the best founders have had someone who showed up early. a game-changing intro. advice that saved months. a 3AM call that fixed the problem.
introducing @thefounderfolks ✨
> who showed up for you when you needed help the most? tag them + all ears for the stories
Garden fencing in full flow. More restrictions will likely take effect, limiting the agent to iMessage or a new standalone app.
For the US market, IM is the default messaging platform but in India, it’s Whatsapp. cc @noahrshinn
While we are in the race to become super productive for every minute of the day, we often forget how the winners of the consumer internet businesses with every platform shift generally work - ad networks.
Sehaj Singh retweeted
If you're young and ambitious, get to an epicenter and get going. Here's your cheat sheet. Breakout List.
Sehaj Singh retweeted
OpenAI quietly bought a startup developing higher quality cameras for smartphones for ~$300M. Scoop w/ @anissagardizy8 wsj.com/tech/openai-buys-sta…
Sehaj Singh retweeted
The most consensus-driven private capital markets environment of our lifetimes.
Sehaj Singh retweeted
equity inflows into US markets for the year to march 2026 of USD 600 billion ...breathtaking nos.
I've known @vivekraju93 for many years now. He would always help founders craft the best narrative, which is important for their fundraise. They understand what VCs look for in a story & why. Highly recommend their program to founders planning to raise money for their startup.
If you are a founder planning to raise in the next 6-9 months, the Reverse Fundraise program is starting 7th September.
It will be an intense program over 5 weeks. You will have to commit to 2 sessions per week (3+ hrs each). And you will have to put in some work outside of it.
It won't be passive at all. Complete action focussed. You will have to do the work, seek feedback, iterate.
Link for further details in the replies.
Sehaj Singh retweeted
I’m a retired brain surgeon and I wanna tell you why you feel like life is passing by. I just need one minute to explain this to you so hang in there.
Repetitive daily routines stop the brain from recording clear detailed memories. When every day looks the same, your brain does not track time the same as a clock does. It tracks change. If nothing new happens then days, months, and years start to blur together.
This is know as Time compression. When life lacks variety, your brain compresses past days together, making it feel like time is sped up.
To stop feeling like life is passing you by, add new experiences to your life. Break routine habits, like changing your daily home routine, taking a different route to work, or trying a new hobby.
Schedule small trips or plan new adventures so your days do not blend together.
Practice mindfulness by staying fully focused on what you are doing right now and not trying to race off to the next task.
Keep a journal and write down happy memories or memorable parts of the day before you go to sleep.
Take deep, calm breaths when you feel anxious or rushed to return your focus to the moment.
You can and you will retrain your brain to not feel like life is passing you by by following these few simple measures.
Sehaj Singh retweeted
Dylan Patel says Jane Street and Meta are capturing most of the value of AI, not OpenAI and Anthropic
"Most of the value that these models generate does not get given to OpenAI and Anthropic. Thankfully, so far, it is mostly just being given to the users."
"Jane Street, with their exclusive contract with OpenAI for GPT-5.6 ultra fast mode, they're also one of Anthropic's biggest customers, is generating way, way, way, way more value out of the tokens they're paying for than Anthropic is generating in terms of profit. Because they get to make money off the market."
"Or Meta, who at one point was rumored to be as much as 10% of Anthropic's business, they're generating way more efficiencies by optimizing their ad algorithms, getting engagement time 5% longer, all these things. They're making way more money off of using these models than Anthropic."
"Where does the value go in AI? You've got the end user, which I think we all agree is generating more value than anyone else. But then you've got the app layer. So far the app layer's generated very little value.”
“And you've got the model layer, which up until a year ago was generating negative gross margins and is now generating massive positive gross margins, on the path to $100 million per megawatt."
"But if we go back a year ago, the hardware supply chain was generating all this gross margin while literally everyone else was losing money. So the value capture has shifted around a lot."
Ben Thompson says the real money in AI is being made by Meta, not OpenAI or Anthropic
"The biggest impact of the models, the biggest monetization right now is probably not in Anthropic or OpenAI. It's the incremental gain that is happening for Google and Meta."
"They can actually validate their image creation and their text creation in a way no one else can. Their validation is the ad marketplace, like running a gazillion A/B tests to see what works. Most ads don't convert.”
"What do LLMs do? LLMs predict. We're going to move to this world where Meta is going to look at people and say, this person probably wants to see this next. And they're going to go find that thing and show it to them."
"The potential upside in terms of just showing people better ads that are more relevant to them, they only need to increase like a few percentage points for the returns to be billions and billions of dollars. This alone is worth them investing in being on the leading edge."
"This is why advertising is great. And Meta's advertising in particular is awesome. I get frustrated that Meta doesn't talk about that. Mark Zuckerberg has never really talked about the societal benefits of advertising except in passing in 20 years."
Dashcam. Water + air purifier. Health insurance. Private school+college+recreational spaces. Gated society. Quick commerce/service. Inverter. Personal vehicle. Foreign holidays.
Small sample across 3 top cities, but majority of them have similar personal stack to live life in a safe environment.
