CIO at a real estate investment shop. Housing, markets, macro, and the occasional detour. Second Order Effects → https://xitter.cf/t.co/TSwi6pxUqL

Northeast
Joined February 2026
Grant Ellison retweeted
Surround yourself with people who see a flying car and say, "Awesome!" Not people who see a flying car and say, "It's not actually flying" or "I don't see the point." This post is not about cars :)
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Grant Ellison retweeted
Kevin Erdmann@KAErdmannSep 24
Jeff Merkley would ban single-family homes from being turned into rentals, but would give $50,000 to new homeowners. Truly the head of America's Regressive Party.
unusual_whales
@unusual_whalesSep 23
JUST IN: First-time homebuyers could get as much as $50,000 for a down payment on a house, under a draft bill to be introduced by Senator Jeff Merkley and cosponsored by Senator Ron Wyden, per Axios
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As everyone argues about the $40 trillion debt threshold, remember: Its 100% the other party's fault. Your side has never hiked spending or cut taxes. And if they did it was for a good reason and paid for itself. And we can fix deficits entirely by going after the bad people.
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Grant Ellison retweeted
The year is 1825. Inequality is surging as industrial expansion begins to boom across the USA. John Jacob Astor, a fur trader and real estate investor becomes the USA's first millionaire. Socialist politicians explode in anger and tell the American public that this inequality is unfair and we need to ban millionaires so this never happens again. Fast forward 200 years - the politicians were ignored. The USA has become the wealthiest country in human history by a huge margin. The median American is wealthier than 90% of the rest of the world. Capitalism won.
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Grant Ellison retweeted
You see a trillion dollars. Gavin sees 3/4 of a mile of high speed rail.
Americans are struggling to pay for groceries and gas while Elon Musk becomes a TRILLIONAIRE. When the federal government is for sale, the rich get richer and everyone else gets shafted. The system is rigged.
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Showing that "uncapping the payroll tax does not fully fund Social Security" is easy and requires no complicated models or "just trust me." Its basic math you can verify yourself. CBO projects Social Security to level off at: - Spending around 6.0-6.2% of GDP. - Dedicated tax revenues of 4.5% of GDP (from 4.2% in payroll taxes plus 0.3% in other small taxes). Yet we also know that SocSec's payroll tax covers 83% of all wages. Eliminating the cap would cover 100%. So if covering 83% collects 4.2% of GDP in payroll taxes ... then covering 100% would collect 4.2/0.83=5.06% of GDP in payroll taxes. Add back that 0.3% of GDP from related taxes, and we're at 5.36% of GDP in Social Security revenues. That covers half of the funding gap (see chart). (We're giving the rosiest scenario, so let's ignore that a tax hike of this size would give back some revenues from disincentives - and we're also canceling any earned benefits from these taxes). That's it. That's the math you can verify yourself. The key calculation is that the current payroll tax catches 83% of wages and collects 4.2% of GDP. So you can calculate what a 100% policy would collect (an additional 0.86%) and compare to the spending projections. So, no, "eliminate the cap, problem solved" is not correct. You still have to address benefits and the eligibility age.
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Grant Ellison retweeted
Viktor Orban didn’t cancel any elections and never arrested people for social media posts. He also stepped down after his election loss and is partaking in a peaceful transfer of power. But, don’t forget, he was a dictator. Keir Starmer attempted to cancel about 1,000 local council elections next month and arrests about 12,000 people a year for social media posts. He also refused to let a rival run for a seat in a by-election because he was worried it would be a threat to his leadership. But, don’t forget, he’s a democratic leader.
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